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Stamp duty uncertainty to remain post election
Jim McGrath

 


UNCERTAINTY around stamp duty, thought to be at least partly responsible for the residential property market's current wobble, is likely to continue long after the election no matter what result comes back from polling this Thursday. At least that's what the builders think.

Peter Stafford, head of research at the Construction Industry Federation, said that the election may not bring about the end to the debate, which is being blamed for the slowdown in the number of housing transactions.

"We started hitting a bit of a slowdown when speculation and leaks started coming through about changes to stamp duty in last year's budget, " he said.

"After that the issue then got caught up in the election debate and it has been a factor ever since. The concern is that it may not be dealt with after the election and rumour machine before the budget kicks off with further speculation. That's the worst case scenario and it could happen, " he added.

Estate agents are starting to feel the pinch of the slowdown and with reports of estate agents downsizing and laying off staff coming through.

Brian Fallon, managing director of Ireland's largest property website daft. ie, noted recent reports that estate agents have started to lay off staff and shut offices in Bray and Swords because of what he described as the "government-inspired slowdown".

"There has been lesser transactions because of the stamp duty debate. It makes sense that estate agents, who would have increased their staff to cope with a boom, would scale down to reflect the market. Anecdotally I've seen it happen.

"Stamp duty is not the only thing bringing down the market. But if all political parties decided right now to agree on one idea about it, you would see transactions increase. If it is not fixed until the budget then any changes should be backdated to the election just so people can start buying once again, " he said.

Dr Stafford also said the failure to deal with the issue could lead to a sudden rise in house prices.

"What has happened now is that demand has dropped and developers have reacted and dropped supply. If we don't get certainty on the stamp duty issue until after the budget, all the demand that you don't see now will come to the fore. Demand could then outstrip supply, " he said.




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