GARY LINEKER once famously said that football was a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end the Germans win.
The quote could just as easily be applied to Irish general elections. Hundreds of men and women chase votes for three-and-ahalf weeks and at the end, Fianna Fail win. A simplification? The facts suggest otherwise.
Unless Bertie Ahern does a Devon Loch between now and Thursday week, he will be elected Taoiseach for a third consecutive term, meaning it is now a quarter of a century since Fine Gael last won a general election.
In football, over the years, the Germans . . . through doggedness, organisation, selfbelief and intelligence . . . have won games in big tournaments that they shouldn't have (against England in the World Cup quarter-final in 1970; against Holland in the '74 final; beating France in the 1982 World Cup semis, and seeing off England on penalties in Italia '90 and Euro '96).
The same holds for Fianna Fail. Regardless of how well the party performed in the six general elections following its defeat to Garret FitzGerald in 1982, FF has always managed to get a result. In 1987, it was denied a majority by the newly formed PDs, but still formed a minority government. The 1989 election was a bad one for FF . . . it went into it looking for an overall majority and ended up losing four seats, but boy did it get a result. Charlie Haughey's hugely controversial decision to end the party's core value of single party government and coalesce with Des O'Malley's PDs has virtually guaranteed it power ever since.
The fall-back option of coalition meant that, even after having its worst election in over 60 years in 1992 under Albert Reynolds, Fianna Fail still ended up in government, this time with Labour.
The collapse of that government two years later seemed to signal the beginning of the end of Fianna Fail. Had a general election been held at the end of 1994, it seems beyond doubt that Fianna Fail would have dropped below 60 seats. John Bruton and FG opted to put together a government with Labour and Democratic Left rather than insist on an election. It was an understandable decision . . . you don't pass up the chance of government when it's handed to you on a plate . . . but the opportunity to drive a stake through the heart of FF was certainly lost. Within two and a half years, the soldiers of destiny were back in power when, like the Germans beating the Dutch team of 'total football' in 1974, Bertie Ahern won an election he had no right to win.
Every football fan knows the mistakes Cruyff and co made in that World Cup final. And most political anoraks will agree the Rainbow government made a serious error in 1997 by not waiting until the autumn to hold the general election. It's not just that government ratings always increase during the summer, it was the fact that the report of the McCracken tribunal . . . the forerunner to Moriarty . . . would have been published by that autumn containing some very damaging revelations about Haughey and Fianna Fail.
You can't afford to miss open goals against Fianna Fail and sure enough the Rainbow paid the price with FF just about squeezing home. If the 1992 general election was about discovering coalition government, '97 was about Fianna Fail waking up to the benefits of transfers. Yet again, the party had reinvented itself, discovering a new tactic to stay in power.
The general election of five years later was a cakewalk as Fine Gael simply collapsed but this election was a much tougher proposition. Enda Kenny and Fine Gael deserve enormous credit for their excellent electoral performance . . .
coming from virtual extinction to within a few seats of government . . . but frustratingly for FG, the achievement is once again overshadowed by Fianna Fail. For all its gains, only a couple came at the expense of FF. And Sinn Fein discovered there is a huge difference between taking on the SDLP and taking on the Germany of world politics.
Even towards the end of the campaign, it was widely predicted that on a good day Fianna Fail would lose 10 seats; on a bad day 20. Yet, despite a largely rudderless campaign, the party ended up with over 41% of the vote and down only a couple of TDs. The reasons for that turnaround have been widely discussed over the past week, but suffice to say that in cold electoral terms it was an exceptional performance against the odds that has once again wiped the eye of the opposition.
In terms of electoral success, FF has simply no equal. Since it first took power in 1932, it has been in government for 57 of the last 75 years, equivalent to almost four out of every five years in power.
There are arguments about whether that is a good thing for democracy, but that shouldn't take away from the political achievement. Only the PRI in Mexico spring to mind as a more dominant political force. The fact that Fianna Fail has maintained its dominance despite some appalling revelations from the tribunals is genuinely extraordinary.
The bad news for its many opponents is that there appears to be no sign of the party losing its appeal to the electorate.
FF's phenomenal success in the Dublin commuter-belt constituencies . . . arguably particularly representative of the new celtic tiger Ireland . . . in last month's election is clear proof of its rude health.
There's an old cliche in football that you can never write off the Germans.
24 May was further proof . . . if it was needed . . . that you can never, ever, write off FF.
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