A little hindsight could go a long way
THREE-quarters-of-a-million euro and nothing to show for it. That's the scenario in Dun Laoghaire, where three of the highest spenders in Election 2007 were left without Dail seats. Oisin Quinn of the Labour Party along with John Bailey and Eugene Regan, two Fine Gael candidates, spent heavily in the five-seat constituency. They all had extensive pre-election outlays and may well have spent 80,000 to 100,000 each in their unsuccessful Dail adventure.
If any of the trio runs again they may want to match their spending to those periods when voters decide which candidate to support. Research shows that in last month's general election, just over a quarter of voters (28%) decided who to vote for in the final week of the campaign, while 20% decided after the Taoiseach's trip to Aras an Uachtarain. For 44% of voters, the formal campaign made no difference . . . they had made their mind up before the election was called.
This information is contained in the Lansdowne Market Research exit poll commissioned by RTE which has plenty of nuggets on voter attitudes. One in five voters said they switched party since the previous general election. Looking at the data, it's possible to identify these switchers as largely male, from the 35-49 age group and located in Dublin. And which party did they switch to?
Fine Gael got 29% of this key group, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour and Independents 11% each, Greens and Sinn Fein 10% each, with the PDs winning 6%.
The exit poll throws up other interesting pointers. For example, FF's vote share increased as the age profile of the electorate increased. The party won 35% support in the 18-24 age category against 49% of those over 65 years.
This has to be a worry for the future prospects of Ahern's party (or is that now Cowen's party? ). FG's vote is more evenly spread across the various age groups while Labour and Sinn Fein do well among those under 25 years.
FF's ability to win support from first-time voters declined from previous contests. In both 1997 and 2002, FF was backed by 37% of first-time voters but this time that figure fell to 28%. FG's first-time voter support was at 27% and Labour's was 16%.
The exit poll also contains a strong message in terms of the post-election government formation talks now underway. The voters backed FF as the largest party but they wanted to change the nature of the government to either a different FF-led coalition or an administration led by Enda Kenny. Some 30% favoured a FG/Labour coalition against 18% for a FF/PD government and 4% for a FF/Green alliance. Only 8% backed a FF/Labour administration.
And in a message to the newly elected Dail deputies, the exit poll respondents clearly indicated where the politicians' focus should be over the next five years. Some 39% said the primary motive for how they voted was choosing a candidate who would look after the needs of their constituency against 24% who stressed the policies of the parties and 22% who were influenced by who would be Taoiseach.
My kingdom for a seat in the Seanad and free car parking. . .
TOM Parlon, Fiona O'Malley and Liz O'Donnell will be hoping to restart their political careers as Taoiseach's nominees to the Seanad.
Securing these positions will be one of the terms of a PD deal to go into government with Fianna Fail. The PDs have, however, got little value from previous Taoiseach's nominees, including John Minihan and Tom Morrissey, who both failed last month. There's better news in Fianna Fail where four of those appointed to the Seanad in 2002 were elected to the Dail in the general election. The quartet are Mary O'Rourke, Brendan Kenneally, Michael Kitt and Cyprian Brady. This outcome means that Bertie Ahern can now appoint four replacements who will remain in the Seanad until the autumn and have free car parking in Leinster House in perpetuity. Among those who may expect this perk are Fianna Fail's general secretary Sean Dorgan and long-time party advisor Gerry Howlin.
There would, of course, ` be cheers from the political correspondents if recognition was awarded to Mandy Johnson, the government press secretary.
Twin peaks for 'Prime Time' and 'The Week in Politics' please!
THE schedulers in RTE may well have to reevaluate their attitude to politics after the strong audience figures during the general election, not just for the Prime Time leaders' debate, but also for Sean O'Rourke's The Week in Politics programme.
The joust between Kenny and Ahern achieved an average audience of 941,000 while O'Rourke's Sunday-night programme regularly attracted over 240,000 viewers in its post-11pm slot.
Significantly, when the programme was moved to the earlier slot just after 10pm on 5 May, its audience shot up to 292,000. The Week in Politics remains the main TV outlet for politics on RTE, although for years it has been kept in a latenight Sunday slot that must test the loyalty . . . and sleep requirements . . . of most viewers.
Now those viewers . . . and thousands more . . . have sent a clear message to those in charge of programme scheduling in the national broadcaster: please treat politics as a peak-time topic.
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