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Dart-throwing, the unbeatable trading strategy

 


MONKEY'S got the midas touch at the moment and it's all because of an incredible new strategy he's discovered. Curious? Listen up, people.

First, put the names of various stocks on a dartboard. Second, throw the dart. Third, buy the stock the dart lands on and start counting the money. Easy, right?

OK, I exaggerate just a tad. Let me say this though . . . this has been the easiest market to trade I've come across in a long time. If you haven't been making money the past few months, you're doing something seriously wrong.

I mean that. For months, I was seeing mediocre returns (or worse) because I was too busy shorting tops and trying to outsmart the market. Eventually, I caught on that this is a real bull market and a pretty strong one at that. Since then, I've been like a pig in. . . well, you get the picture.

I made three trades since my last column, all of them of the 'buy the dips' variety. I added to my position in the Dow at the end of a pretty intense down day. Every down day over the past few months seems to have brought out the bargain hunters in quick time and this was no exception. The fact that the price dipped down to its ten-day moving average provided additional reassurance.

My existing position was initiated on an almost identical pattern a few weeks ago and this trade proceeded in the exact same way. I took pro"ts at 13,600 on Wednesday. That's provided resistance recently. The price went beyond it and looks set for further gains but it doesn't bother me. My plan is to trade around my core holding, taking pro"ts at the appropriate junctures while letting my initial position run.

I bought into Apple on the same day. Apple has been quite the warrior recently, setting one new high after another. Market weakness saw the price dip to its ten-day average near $110, which was also an area of minor price support. Apple has been appreciating in advance of the expected iPhone launch in mid-June and I was chuffed to be able to get in on the action. I sold half near $115 (previous week's high) on Tuesday and brought my stop loss order up to break-even on the remainder.

Wednesday saw Steve Jobs' boys hit another 52-week high. Mighty stuff.

Assuming my stop isn't hit, the time to get out of this baby would be on or around the launch date. The hype should be intense and the big boys will be able to unload to the onrushing Johnny-come-latelys who think, 'Gee, that iPhone will be hot for Apple'. Apple is up over 30% over the past six weeks. If it continues its ascent, the news will be well and truly baked into the cake by then.

My "nal trade was a day trade on the Dow on Wednesday. News of a massive drop in the Chinese market meant that the US markets opened lower that morning. Some naive traders got the shivers, thinking back to February when global markets plummeted in the days after a similar drop in Shanghai.

Back then, I wrote that there were other factors at play in the US decline and that the notion that China was responsible was "bull". As a result, I had no hesitation in buying in on Wednesday morning.

It was an easy decision. The lack of follow-through selling in the opening minutes of trade showed that the market was not spooked this time around. I was in pro"t early on and it only got better, with the market really motoring along in the last two hours of trade.

Apparently, the release of minutes from the latest Fed meeting were the catalyst for the late drive forward.

The funny thing is that there was nothing particularly positive or new contained in the minutes. At the moment, traders seem to be saying that;

(1) An absence of bad news is good news.

(2) Good news is good news.

(3) Bad news is good news because it makes a rate cut more likely.

Anyway, the day trade garnered an extra 500 for me so I wasn't going to protest.

As for my existing Amazon position, nothing has changed over the past week. Nothing wrong with that . . . the stock has been incredibly strong recently so a period of consolidation would be a good thing.

At the moment it appears to be gearing up for a run past $70. It mightn't happen, of course, but the stock has given me no reason even to consider selling as yet.

The past few weeks have been a good example of the need to adapt one's strategies to current market realities. Ordinarily, I wouldn't view a dip to a stock's ten-day moving average as a buying opportunity (the 50- and 200-day averages are much more signi"cant). For months now, however, this market has simply refused to retrace its gains in any meaningful way.

I watched the Dow go from 12,000 to 13,400 without being able to make a cent. Eventually, I realised people were looking to buy the "rst dip they were presented with. My basic methodology has been the same but a little tweaking was in order.

Eventually, this momentum will fade and I'll need to adapt once more.

I remain bullish for the future but I'll be selective in my bets. Forget my earlier dartboard joke and be choosy.

A strong stock that dips is an opportunity but only a fool chases the market.

I watched Amazon go from $45 to $64, Apple from $90 to $115 and Research in Motion from $130 to $165. I was eyeing up Elan for weeks and had to sit back and watch it rise 35% over the past fortnight.

Eventually, my chances came and I made a packet. Greed may be good, to quote Gordon Gekko, but discipline is better.

Weekly gain/loss: + 2,700
Overall balance: 48,400




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