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Bear with me as the market shows its claws

 


AH WELL. I had expected this column to be a simple triumphalist boast, yet another week of market glory crowned by Monkey's trading account breaching the Euro50,000 level just weeks after he had imperiously brushed aside the bearish barbarians guarding the gates at Euro40,000. Alas, it was not to be, with heavy-selling in the Dow on Wednesday taking the gloss after what was shaping up to be another very fine week on the trading front.

The selling on Wednesday was triggered by Morgan Stanley's issuing of a "triple sell" rating on European markets after the ECB raised rates once again. The firm said that it expects European equities to experience a 14% correction over the next six months and that pessimistic call led to a selloff, with the main European markets suffering an average fall of nearly 2%. Both European and US markets are extremely extended so I would tend to view it as profit-taking rather than the beginning of the end of the bull run of the last few months. Still, it marked the second consecutive day of selling on the Dow and that hasn't happened in quite a while (in fact, I think it was last seen in March). Up to now, traders have been buying every dip. On Tuesday, the Dow's dip to its 10-day moving average failed to bring out the usual horde of buyers and the bulls were just as reluctant to buy on Wednesday's dip to the twenty-day average.

In all, the Dow suffered a fall of 250 points between Monday and Wednesday, nearly stopping me out of my remaining position in the process.

Amazon and Apple, on the other hand, continue to behave like true champs.

These boys just keep going north. Some selling on Monday morning saw Amazon come close to stopping me out (I had raised my stop order to protect my profits) but then the buyers came out in force and the stock appreciated sharply over the following days. It saw some selling on Wednesday but not of a magnitude that would disturb anyone with a long position.

As for Apple, its rise seems relentless. Even the broad market selling on Wednesday couldn't take it down. It won't continue indefinitely, of course, but it has yet to give any clues that a top is near. The iPhone launch is just two weeks away and I'm hoping the stock can keep going until then. If it does, that would be a very obvious place to take profits.

I took some new trades this week but none of them went anywhere. I wanted a little exposure to the short side in the event of a market turn and found what appeared to be a good candidate in SanDisk.

The position initially went in my favour but I missed a chance to take some profits and the stock reversed upwards. It proceeded to spend a few days hovering around $44 - my stop loss order was just cents away - and I was relieved to get out at break-even when the opportunity presented itself on Tuesday.

My other trades consisted of a couple of Dow day trades.

Neither ever looked like going in my favour and, like with SanDisk, I chose to close out at the break-even point.

Where next for the markets? I've had no shortage of people putting the bear case to me. Global interest rates are going up. Earnings estimates are likely headed lower.

Economic data is mediocre.

Access to cheap money has created a global liquidity bubble and a rally financed by borrowed money is a rally with tenuous foundations.

The market surge of the last few months has been unaccompanied by any notable fundamental improvements.

It's been driving the bears crazy. Technical analyst, trader and blogger Tim Knight (www. tradertim. blogspot. co m ) writes that "a nuclear bomb on a major city would not cause a major disruption in this bull market. I swear to God, this market is insane, and even the death of a million people would not stop it.

It has lost its mind."

Knight is part of that strange species known as the 'perma-bear' - he's always bearish. Still, I have to sympathise. I can't make sense of the market run and I can't disagree with the legion of sceptics who say that a correction is warranted.

As long as the action is bullish, however, it would be dumb to bet against it. I don't care if this market is irrational. I don't care if it has "lost its mind". I just want to make money and the easiest way of doing that has been to buy the dips. The trend is your friend until the end when it bends. Despite this week's selling, it hasn't bent yet.

Weekly gain/loss: +Euro650 Overall balance: Euro49,050




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