IRELAND'S 400,000 Vodafone shareholders in the mobile operator could be in for a windfall, if speculation that US communications giant AT&T is limbering up to bid for Europe's largest mobile firm proves accurate.
Many of them inherited Vodafone shares when Eircom sold its Eircell mobile phone subsidiary in 2000.
Indeed, every resident of the state has a financial interest in Vodafone as the National Pension Reserve Fund holds Euro46m in shares.
Rumours grew after AT&T's new chief executive Randall Stephenson recently told Reuters he's interested in telecoms acquisitions outside the US.
Last year, AT&T acquired fellow US telco BellSouth in a $67bn stock deal. Vodafone would be a much bigger kettle of fish, perhaps fetching $170bn excluding debt for the world's second largest mobile operator after China Mobile.
Based on that price tag, analysts have their doubts.
It would dwarf the previous record for a telecom acquisition, when a pair of private equity firms bought equipment maker Alltel in May for $27.5bn.
Banca Akros telecommunications analyst Andrea Devita believes whether an approach is made to Vodafone or not, the speculation is good news for Irish shareholders who should see their holdings continue to increase in value in the short term.
"Even if nothing happens, stock prices have been boosted by the rumours, and if this speculative news flow continues there could be more gains like the 5% boost in value over the past ten days."
Chris Johns, head of equities at Bank of Ireland Asset Management, points out that "events" often follow acquisition speculation, and "judging by the markets somebody is placing a bet that something is going to happen".
"With the price tag [an acquisition] is a large bite for any company to swallow, and it's currently a logical possibility rather than likely or imminent, " said Johns.
Sounding a note of caution though, Devita warned such speculation might make long term investors unhappy as Vodafone becomes geared up five-times its EBITA value.
If Vodafone were in play, other bidders might emerge, perhaps even other private equity firms with ambitions to top the �10.2bn purchase of AllianceBoots by KKR, the first take-private of a FTSE100 company.
Some observers point to Vodafone's current annual dividend yield of around 4.5% and its reasonably steady income stream that make it look more like a mature company rather than a highgrowth tech stock, and thus attractive to infrastructurehappy private equity firms, though it would be an order of magnitude greater than nearly any previous private equity transaction. In addition, some parts of the business, such as its 45% stake in US firm Verizon Wireless, might readily be broken off and sold.
Last week Vodafone shrugged off demands from an activist shareholder that it sell off its Verizon stake.
In any case, it's a saga to which Irish shareholders should pay close attention in coming weeks.
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