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What to do about a Green coalition
WEALTH OF NATIONS CONSTANTIN GURDGIEV

 


AT THE time of writing, the shape of the future government still remains unclear, but as the media continues to focus on the political gymnastics surrounding the possible Green participation in a FF-led government, it is worth remembering that, despite all the differences between the two parties, the Greens could play a vital role in balancing FF's innate preference for the status quo.

In other words, a FF-Green coalition might work, assuming the Greens could be kept in check by the pragmatism of Brian Cowen, Dermot Ahern, Noel Dempsey, Seamus Brennan and other functional cabinet members. Here is a road map to getting a government with the Greens to work.

First, keep the Greens away from fiscal and foreign policies. The Greens have made some overzealous bids for their tax-and-spend 'green' economy. These include, for example, vastly increasing social housing provision and taxing banks - effectively, levies against the middle class. There were also muted but ominous rumblings about anti-consumer carbon tax and other environmental charges. In the current climate of economic uncertainty, jittery employers and falling consumption, construction and foreign direct investment, the last thing Ireland Inc needs is Green taxes. Last week's hike in the eurozone interest rate to 4% reinforces this point.

Second, allow the Greens a voice in determining environmental, energy, communications and planning policies. The party scores well in these areas and has much in common with the PDs, once the electioneering rhetoric is stripped away. Both parties want a functional and transparent planning system and realise that this cannot be done without tying the hands of the local authorities. Both parties favour competitive provision of energy and communication and focus on local environmental issues.

Third, allow the Greens a say in education and R&D. Despite being extremely laconic on these issues, the Greens can be trusted to contribute to reforms pragmatically.

This, in combination with the PDs' stress on competition, can provide a positive alternative to the government's infatuation with daft numerical targets without concern for quality of education and research.

The Greens will also be effective outsiders in discussions on how to deal with our inefficient public sector.

While the latter two bridges are easy to cross, the problem of containing the Greens' tax-andspend opportunism presents a real conundrum. In the past, the Greens differentiated themselves by calling for aggressive state interventions in reducing and reshaping consumption, investment and supply sides of the economy.

Borrowing from the more extreme international environmental movement, the party called for prohibitive taxes on emissions, airlines, energy producers, motorists, transport and pretty much every consumer. Although they have toned down their rhetoric, the Greens still have little economic thinking to offer outside these draconian propositions. The problem is Ireland cannot afford an experiment in raising taxes. Here are two examples why.

First, a recent paper by Richard Tol from ESRI argues that a carbon tax on air travel would result in the most adverse effects on countries like Ireland while doing next to nothing for the environment. Tol shows that a global tax of $1000 per tonne of CO2 would reduce emissions from aviation by only 0.8%. Given that the sector accounts for just 2% of all global emissions, worldwide CO2 pollution can be expected to fall by only 0.016%.

However, despite yielding low environmental benefits, "a carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. . . This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (such as Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers".

International tourism is the only realistic hope for development of the Irish countryside in years to come.

Second, last month's study from the World Bank showed that, over the last 60 years and across 76 countries, including Ireland, lower business and consumer taxes alone were responsible for causing economic growth and improvements in living standards.

Overall, authors found that each percentage point decrease in general business tax burden causes a 2% increase in long-term growth rates.

State subsidies for education, according to the study, yield no economic returns - short- or longterm. R&D incentives produce a small increase in the growth rate in the short run alone, and even then, only when accompanied by simultaneous reductions in the tax burden for businesses.

Although the Greens have promised to keep corporate tax rates intact, their plans for state subsidies for a 'greener' economy will increase the tax burden on consumers and producers. Apart from this, the party offers only vast increases in R&D and education and training spending as the main drivers for future growth.

The Greens have somewhat tuned down their anti-business and anticonsumer rhetoric. Yet if it is to be an effective government partner, the party must embrace factually-based policies, including the ones that cut across the Green's holier-than-thou posturing about the evils of consumerism and pro"ts.




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