CAN a coalition comprising three very different parties and supported by four independent deputies survive five long years in power? We look at eight challenges the new coalition could face over the next five years.
Mahon tribunal Questions about Bertie Ahern's finances and the foreign currency transactions in his bank accounts have not gone away. Neither the PDs in government nor the Greens in opposition were happy with Ahern's responses before the formation of the new three-party arrangement. But the Greens have now adopted a wait and see attitude and will await the final tribunal report. The PDs are numerically so weak that there is little Mary Harney can do, having agreed to serve for a third term with Ahern.
Tom Gilmartin has already had a difficult time as a tribunal witness, and Ahern's other advantage is the tribunal itself. If it was a private sector operation it would have ceased trading years ago, such is its inefficient approach to the pressing matters under investigation. It will come and go as a problem but Ahern may well be gone before the tribunal publishes its findings.
ESB The Greens secured a plum job getting Eamon Ryan into Communications, Energy and Natural Resources. Ryan knows the area inside out but his appointment will be greeted nervously by ESB unions, which are already annoyed with the previous minister's plans to transfer ESB's transmission network to another state company, Eirgrid.
Ryan has previously backed the Deloitte Report on the energy market which has advocated a reduction in ESB's dominance and a greater openness to competition. If he maintains that viewpoint as minister, it will put him on a collision course with the powerful ESB unions and, possibly, Bertie Ahern.
Health and Mary Harney Billions of euro have been spent by the two previous coalitions led by Bertie Ahern but the word 'crisis' is still applied to the health services. The next three months will reveal much about the government's seriousness in effecting fundamental change.
There are issues aplenty in health that could divide the government. A deal has yet to be agreed with the consultants, while the future of the VHI may cause problems. But the co-location policy, while stressed by the opposition, does not seem to concern the public. Still the Greens may be so busy with their two senior ministries that they will allow Harney . . . and Ahern . . . the space to work freely in the health area.
Leadership changes/ local elections It's awkward enough having three parties in the coalition, but when all three parties are certain to have changes in leadership in the lifetime of the government, things have the potential to get messier.
The taoiseach has already signalled he won't contest another election; Trevor Sargent last week announced he was standing down as Green leader, and Mary Harney is only acting leader of the PDs, with no interest in staying on in the position.
A poor outcome in the 2009 local and Euro elections could also increase tensions, particularly between the Greens and PDs who will be rivals for seats in the next general election in constituencies such as Dublin South East, Dun Laoghaire and Dublin South.
Tar a An early challenge for the new government, but Dick Roche's decision to allow the M3 motorway to be built over an archaeological site near Tara was not taken without proper advice. The voters in the region also backed Fianna Fail candidates in last month's general election, signalling where their preference lay.
Tensions over the decision will probably not last. But for John Gormley and the Greens, the symbolism of the action may haunt them for the life of the coalition.
Carbon tax The FF-Green Party programme for government includes a commitment to introduce a carbon tax in the next five years, although the rate has not been agreed. While any new tax will be compensated for by cuts in other taxes, it is likely to be be a contentious issue between the government parties.
The economy Economist Moore McDowell said before the election that, because of uncertainty over future economic performance, this might be the election to lose. An economic downturn would be sure to affect the dynamic between the coalition partners.
While there have been good relations between FF and the PDs over the past decade, the huge financial resources available have allowed both parties to deliver both tax cuts and big spending increases (and often avoid tough decisions). If surpluses turn to deficits that luxury will be gone.
The unexpected One thing history has taught us is that the biggest crisis for the next government will be something totally unexpected. Nobody could have predicted the arms trial of 1970; the 'thundering disgrace' outburst of 1976; the X case in 1992; the Sheedy affair of 1999/2000;
or Mr A last year. Any crisis will require cool heads and steady nerves . . . time will tell if the new government has these qualities.
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