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Ahern anoints his successor
Kevin Rafter Political Editor

 


Despite Bertie Ahern's unprecedentedmove to single him out as the 'obvious' heir to the Fianna Fail throne, BrianCowenwill not be sizing up the top job just yet and may even be annoyed at the taoiseach's interference BRIAN COWEN sat listening to his colleagues at the first meeting of the new Fianna Fail parliamentary party last Wednesday afternoon. The gathering in Leinster House included over a dozen new TDs as well as many familiar faces. It was one of the old guard who motivated Cowen into action.

Jim McDaid rose to his feet. The onetime minister had a gripe. How was it, the Donegal man asked, that just a short distance away in the Mansion House, Green Party members were able to read the new programme for government but in Leinster House Fianna Fail TDs had yet to see the document?

As McDaid continued with his complaint, the finance minister sprung to his feet, pushed open the doors at the top to the parliamentary party room and, a few moments later, reappeared with boxes under each of his arms. Cowen proceeded to distribute the programme for government to the gathering of Fianna Fail politicians. McDaid had his answer.

They love Brian Cowen in Fianna Fail.

They especially love the way he swats political opponents, or those closer to home like McDaid, who raise his ire.

This weekend, the Offaly man sits in a unique position in his party's history.

In an unprecedented move last Friday, Bertie Ahern intervened in Fianna Fail's choice of his successor. Cowen was, Ahern said, "the obvious successor to me". The other big beasts in Fianna Fail with their eyes on the top job, including Micheal Martin and Dermot Ahern, must have been startled at the audacity of Ahern's attempt to pre-empt a future leadership decision.

Departing leaders normally stand aside to allow their party to get on with choosing a successor. But then, the nature of Ahern's departure is anything but normal. De Valera outstayed his welcome as Fianna Fail leader while Lemass made a surprisingly early exit.

Lynch, Haughey and Reynolds were victims of heaves and electoral defeats.

Ahern's departure . . . if his own script comes true . . . will be different. He is planning for a controlled and orderly exit some time in the next four years. And now it seems he not only wants to arrange the circumstances and timing of his resignation, he also wants to anoint his successor.

Certainly if Ahern stood down today the likelihood is Cowen would emerge victorious from a leadership contest, if there was a contest. Fianna Fail's deputy leader had an excellent general election campaign and his stature has grown the longer he has served as finance minister. He played a pivotal role in the formation of the new government. His appointment as the first Fianna Fail tanaiste since John Wilson is an indication that he is now the clear number two in the party.

But Cowen will not be sizing up the top job in Fianna Fail just yet. He knows Ahern will be in situ for several years, and being the anointed one today does not guarantee being the most attractive leadership option when a vacancy eventually arises.

Privately, Cowen may even be annoyed that Ahern has so early identified him not just as the front-runner in a future leadership race but actually, in Ahern's view, the only contestant. Ahern and Cowen are an odd couple. They are not personally close. They do not socialise together. They even come from different factions within their party. Cowen was a deeply loyal supporter of Albert Reynolds. Ahern was a distrusted member of Charlie Haughey's regime.

When Ahern replaced Reynolds as Fianna Fail leader in late 1994 he appointed Cowen merely as the party's agriculture spokesman.

It has taken time for the two men to gain each other's trust. But they have two things in common: each man has a deep respect for the other's political skills and they both have Fianna Fail blood running through their veins. The love of politics and the love of the party are now the twin forces that bind Ahern and Cowen together.

Ahern's anointment of Cowen as taoiseach-in-waiting may be underpinned by another significant motivation. By acting as he has done, Ahern has closed off any chance of Cowen . . . or Cowen's supporters . . . agitating for an early leadership change. Ahern, the master political operator, has spun a web to trap his fly. But neutering Cowen may not be enough to prevent an erosion of loyalty towards the great electoral leader.

Ahern knows that with a self-imposed deadline for his departure, there are those in Fianna Fail who would argue that an early transition would be best for all involved. He will not be around to win votes and secure seats at the next general election. In fact, in electoral terms, Ahern is a devalued currency. He's worthless to the Fianna Fail backbenchers. Yes, he has won three successive contests but he won't be around to claim a fourth victory. With each controversy the government faces, Fianna Fail TDs will be asking: is it time for a new leader?

In addition, the disappointed among the ranks of Fianna Fail ministerial hopefuls . . . and there are many . . . know promotions will come only when a new leader is in place. Ahern's hold over his party will be less secure, as the next few months will show. There may be a greater willingness by the disaffected to talk out of turn. These supporters may ultimately look for a new contender to support.

Ahern's embrace of Cowen may prevent Cowen and his closest lieutenants in the Fianna Fail parliamentary party from striking. But it will not stop others from plotting. Cowen is in pole position now but Micheal Martin has a significant fan club among Fianna Fail TDs and senators. The gathering of Cork and Munster TDs at his table in the members' restaurant in Leinster House last Thursday did not go without comment.

Martin is the most serious challenger to Cowen and he has several advantages over the tanaiste, including an urbane persona and an urban base. The Corkman is also hugely ambitious and he will not give up on following in Jack Lynch's footsteps just because Ahern has signalled a preference for someone else.

Ahern may have anointed Cowen but the focus group research, the opinion poll findings and others with leadership ambitions have other ideas.




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