The new team could be announced as early as this Wednesday after the government's first cabinet meeting, although it would be no surprise if the process took another week.

Bertie Ahern's task in picking a cabinet was made easier by the fact that, Lenihan and Tom Kitt aside, there were few obvious candidates in Fianna Fail for promotion. But he has no such comfort zone when it comes to the appointment of the 17 ministers of state.

Ahern's problem is that there are at least 13 current backbenchers who realistically believe they have a hope of advancement.

Of the current team of junior ministers, only three are not available to be reappointed . . .

Tom Parlon and Tim O'Malley of the PDs lost their seats and the aforementioned Lenihan is now the minister for justice.

Outgoing Green leader Trevor Sargent will take the junior agriculture position, with special responsibility for food and horticulture. Meanwhile, Lenihan's place on the junior team has been taken by former environment minister Dick Roche who, it was announced on Thursday, is returning to his old job at European affairs.

So, unless Ahern decides to wield the axe, just one slot is up for grabs and, as everybody knows, 13 into one does not go.

Whatever happens, there are going to be a lot of disappointed Fianna Fail TDs around Leinster House.

Of the existing team of junior ministers, Kitt (already reappointed as chief whip), John Browne, Noel Ahern, Tony Killeen, Brendan Smith, Conor Lenihan, Mary Wallace and Sean Haughey (surely) are regarded as safe. It's also hard to see the taoiseach moving against Michael Ahern . . . who topped the poll in Cork East . . .

and Sean Power, given Fianna Fail's extraordinary achievement in winning four seats out of seven in Kildare.

Those who might be nervously awaiting word from the taoiseach over the coming days include Frank Fahey, who has been the subject of some controversy over the past year;

Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher, who could be vulnerable if fellow Donegal man Niall Blaney gets the nod; Cork North West's Batt O'Keeffe, who held his seat despite having to move to a different constituency; and Noel Treacy, who has been a junior minister, almost without break, for the past two decades.

Of the backbenchers with most grounds for optimism, Cork North Central's Billy Kelleher, Tipperary North's Maire Hoctor, Laois-Offaly's Sean Fleming, Donegal North East's Niall Blaney and Jimmy Devins in Sligo-Leitrim are being spoken about. John McGuinness could well be rewarded for helping Fianna Fail yet again to deliver three seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, while Martin Mansergh in Tipperary South may be a first-time TD, but he certainly has the experience for ministerial office. Beverley Flynn will, it seems, be a junior minister, but not this time around.

In Dublin, Pat Carey would be a popular choice but the presence in his constituency of the taoiseach's brother, Noel, could restrict his chances. Sean Ardagh helped Fianna Fail deliver two seats against the odds in Dublin South Central, while Barry Andrews in Dun Laoghaire and John Curran in Dublin Mid West could also make a strong case for their inclusion.

But even if it was a bold, impulsive, Albert Reynoldsstyle taoiseach doing the picking, there wouldn't be room for all those men and women. And given Bertie Ahern's notorious caution when it comes to promoting and demoting, it is much more likely that there will be only two or three new faces when the line-up is announced.