THE uncertainty has gone. That has been the most positive result of last week's government announcement on stamp duty being abolished for first-time buyers. The 'will they, won't they' question that has been hovering over the issue since last autumn has been settled. But whether it will actually encourage muchneeded activity in the currently sluggish property market is more questionable.
First-time buyers in Dublin will certainly have more choice at the lower end and may relish the chance to secure a secondhand home, such as an ex-Corporation two-bed house with garden in a city location rather than a one or two-bed apartment in the outskirts.
The numbers of buyers benefiting will be small, estimated at 3,000 at the most, says chief economist with IIB Bank Austen Hughes.
"The question mark over stamp duty has been there for months and, by raising the issue of reform initially, the government helped paralyse the market. But it is rising interest rates that have cast the biggest shadow over confidence. There have been eight rises in interest rates over the past 18 months and that has had much more of an impact."
Ken MacDonald, director of Hooke & MacDonald, the biggest seller of new homes in the country, has broadly welcomed the government announcement. Competition is healthy and his view is that a bigger choice will attract those buyers who have been somewhat reticent over the past few months. "What's good for the secondhand market is good for the new homes market too and there are so many buyers who have been holding back until now. The uncertainty is over and the stamp duty debate is finished for the foreseeable future."
The upper figure for new housing output for 2006 was a heady 93,000. For this year, that figure is considerably lower, with the more positive commentators citing 70,000 but others suggesting a very conservative number in the 50,000s.
For first-time buyers, with an average spend of 300,000 to 400,000, there is some consolation in the fact that areas that fall within that price bracket have seen either a stabilising of price or, in many instances, a slight drop. With stamp duty now abolished, it could certainly make a secondhand houses more attractive for a firsttime buyer rather than a new apartment. Should agents selling new homes cheer such an outcome? Ken MacDonald says there are buyers in every category and new apartments, for example, have their own special attractions, being fitted out to a high spec and ready to walk into.
"Our phones have been hopping since the announcement. Buyers don't want to miss the bus between now and the autumn market.
Changes in stamp duty, as witnessed in the 2005 budget, generally results in upward pressure on prices. While some adjustment in secondhand prices is inevitable, the current market environment will ensure that this does not translate into a sudden jump in prices but instead happen at a more gradual pace."
Ronan O'Driscoll, director of new homes at Savills HOK, feels the government move is "much ado about nothing", adding that stamp duty as it relates to first-time buyers has been quite low generally (not payable until the 317,500 band).
"The real issue is the high level of stamp duty affecting all buyers. For example, the 9% rate is reached at just 635,000. We have the second-highest stamp-duty rate in Europe . . . in the UK it's 3%.
For a family wanting to move from a two-bed home to a three- or four-bed, it's a huge amount of their budget to set aside.
"This has been a missed opportunity for the government to reform the bands in a way to benefit a much larger number of buyers rather than just the 2,000 or so in the first-timer category."
Aside from the stamp duty issue, the government's reform of mortgage interest relief in the last budget has helped first-time buyers somewhat. Austen Hughes says interest relief should have been granted more broadly to all categories of buyers if activity is to be activated in a flatlining market.
"The pace of 12 months ago was just too hot to sustain and now the government has to be careful with any measures it takes. Call it what you will, 'slowdown', 'adjustment' or 'soft landing'. The reality is that the risk of a crash is a bit like an air flight . . . and accidents tend to happen mainly on take-off or landing."
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