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INSIDE POLITICS
By Dan Boyle

   


Now is the time for the Greens to make decisions

WHEN I think on the events of the past five weeks in Irish politics and how they've impacted on my party and me, I've been reminded of a line from that Talking Heads song 'Once In a Lifetime': "Well, how did I get here?"

There is no doubt politics at the best of times is inexplicable and that Irish politics in particular is often beyond understanding. But I don't believe there is a writer of fiction alive today who could have come close to providing plausible prose on how things have eventually turned out in our political system.

A surreal election campaign was divided into two distinct parts - an opening stage devoid of issues and obsessed with the Taoiseach's personal finances and a latter part focused on Fianna F�il- or Fine Gael-led government, to the eventual exclusion of all other parties. During my local campaign I was confronted by more people on the doorsteps telling me I was a certainty to be elected than by those who were willing to give me a number-one vote. All things considered, Alice in Wonderland could be the best literary template for Irish politics to follow now.

But what was to follow was stranger still. Being asked to participate in negotiations for a government, in which the Green Party was wanted but wasn't needed, was a further strain on whatever personal sanity remained. That the negotiations were affable and only rarely slipped into an overly confrontational mode helped sow the seeds of what had been considered unlikely becoming possible.

Negotiating that agreement was something that had to be followed by the Green Party membership becoming a part of that programme. That meeting in the Mansion House, for all its historical resonance, was as tense and as nervous and as unpredictable as it appeared to be. There was a great deal of emotion on the night, both in the awareness of the decision that was being made and in the aftermath of that decision being made so emphatically.

And so now we have Greens in government with two cabinet ministers and a minister for state. No longer are we, nor can we be, a party of protest. Time will tell whether this will help the party to grow and develop, or whether the country will be better for the experience, but it is important that we try by realising that now is the time for Greens to be making decisions and to be held accountable for making such decisions.

IF we are talking about immutable laws in politics, there is one longterm trend which, if continued, could make the business of forming an alternative government very difficult. For close on 35 years, after 11 general elections, Fine Gael has failed to increase its D�il seat totals in successive national election campaigns. Its last seat gains in successive general elections were made in 1973 when the party won 54 seats, a gain of four seats from the 1969 general election. After that, the party lost 11 seats in 1977, won 22 additional seats in 1981, lost two seats in the "rst of the 1982 general elections but added seven extra seats in the second election of the year. In 1987 the party lost 20 seats with a slight bounce back in 1989 of five new seats. In 1992 the party dropped to 45 D�il seats, a decrease of 10, almost all regained with the exception of one seat in 1997. Then there was the massacre of 2002 followed by one of the party's highest ever seat gains this year.

It doesn't take a degree in psephology to recognise which way this pendulum is likely to swing the next time around. Then again, nothing is certain in Irish politics any more; maybe smaller parties won't get eaten up by being in coalition government and maybe Fine Gael will win additional seats in the next general election. Whichever way it goes, Irish politics will remain, as ever, unpredictable.

German Greens had right idea

ALREADY the doomsayers have said the decision by the Green Party's membership to enter government will herald the party's demise at the next general election. We shall see.

The prevailing wisdom says smaller parties always get eaten up by participating in coalition government.

The recent examples of the PDs and the Labour Party are constantly trotted out but prevailing wisdom when looked at more closely may not be that wise. The PDs managed to increase their seat totals in 1992 and 2002 after having participated in government. It is a matter of debate whether the Labour Party's collapse in 1997 was as a result of going into government with Fianna F�il in 1992, or coming out of government with Fine Gael in 1997.

And yet it cannot be argued that many smaller parties in Irish politics have faded into history after having participated in government. Where the Green Party would see ourselves as being different is that we are part of an international movement and can draw on international experience of government.

A good example for us would be the experience of the German Greens in government. They served for two terms, during economically difficult times, after which their vote held solidly.

And since leaving government the party's vote has developed further.

Much depends on the Green Party's performance in government. Promising too much and acquiring arrogant tendencies have been the factors that have seen other smaller parties suffer in government. These are the pitfalls the Green Party in Ireland has to avoid.

Dan Boyle is a former Green TD Kevin Rafter is on leave




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