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Still plenty of American idylls
Shane McGinley

       


INrecent months the press has been full of reports about the demise of the US property market and a predicted crash. The dwindling value of the Dollar has also put pressure on the market, although it has made it easier and cheaper for European investors to obtain bargains, a clear example being the difference between two recent surveys released by Mercer Human Resource Consulting.

The 2007 Worldwide Quality of Living Survey listed eight US cities in the top 50; Honolulu (27), San Francisco (29), Boston (36), Washington DC (44), Chicago (44), Portland (46), New York City (48) and Seattle (49);

while in the 2007 Cost of Living Survey only two US cities, New York City (10) and Los Angeles (42), made the top 50 rankings.

According to official US government figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) "the rate of home price appreciation in the US remained slow but positive in the first quarter of 2007. The OFHEO House Price Index (HPI), which is based on data from sales and refinance transactions, was 0.5% higher in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2006. This is moderately below the revised growth estimate of 1.3% from the third to the fourth quarter of 2006. However on a yearly basis the overall figure for the year rose by 4.3% when compared to 2006.

"Although some forecasters expected to see a drop in the HPI, nationwide house prices continued to rise in the first quarter of 2007, albeit at the lowest rate in 10 years, " said OFHEO director James B Lockhart.

Many Irish and European buyers make the mistake in thinking that the US market is just Florida and New York but while Florida has seen prices drop and New York continues to race ahead there are areas of the US with very healthy price growths which many Irish investors may never have considered or even heard of.

"As always, real estate prices are local with seven states showing double-digit annual appreciation rates and seven with rates less than 2%. Seven states, including Florida and California, also showed home price depreciation in the first quarter."

The OFHEO report pointed out that on the whole housing prices in the US grew faster over the past year than average inflation as the Consumer Price Index showed that goods and services rose by 1.6% compared to the nationwide house prices rising by 4.3%.

"Low interest rates and unemployment rates continue to prop up house prices in most markets, " said OFHEO chief economist Patrick Lawler. "Prices are rising slowly in most areas, however there are some exceptions. For the first time in seven years, two states, Massachusetts and Michigan, experienced four-quarter price declines, " reported Lawlor.

When looking at the US as a whole the top 10 states with the greatest rates of appreciation in the first quarter of 2007 were Utah (17.0%), Idaho (12.3%), Montana (11.7%), Wyoming (11.7%), and Washington (11.6%), New Mexico (11.2%), Oregon (10.8%), Mississippi, (9.5%), Louisiana (8.1%), and North Carolina (7.9%).

The 10 worst performing states with the lowest rates of appreciation for the same period included Michigan (-0.7%), Massachusetts (-0.6%), Nevada (0.6%), Ohio (0.8%), and New Hampshire (1.1%), California, (1.2%), Rhode Island (1.5%), Indiana (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Nebraska (2.6%) and New York (3%). Florida ranked 31st on the list and had an annual rise of 4.3%, just above the national average, however in the first quarter prices dropped by 0.34% In terms of actual cities while many investors may be heading for the big hitters, such as New York City, Chicago, Las Vegas or one of the other well known tourist spots, none of these even make the top-20 list of best performers.

The greatest rates of appreciation for the first quarter of 2007 were seen in Wenatchee, Washington (25.6%), Provo-Orem, Utah (19.7%) and Salt Lake City, Utah (19.1%). California and Florida were the bottom players with the worst locations being Punta Gorda, Florida (4.6%), Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, California (-4.4%), and Modesto, California (4.4%). In fact the two states made up 16 of the bottom 20 metropolitan areas.

The Mountain Census Division area, in the mid west of the US, continues to be the strongest performing area and yet it rarely makes the property headlines. Utah, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, all within this area, were the four states with the greatest yearly appreciation rates. Of the 20 cities with the greatest appreciation, five are in Washington state and Utah's three largest metropolitan areas (Salt Lake City, Provo-Orem, and OgdenClearfield) were among the five fastest appreciating cities in the US. Over the year 13 of the 18 Florida cities on the list experienced price declines and 22 of the 26 Californian cities also saw drops. The New York City area ranked 146th, Chicago 109th, Los Angeles 114th, San Francisco 215th, Orlando 55th, Boston 257th, Las Vegas 207th and Dallas 157th.

American homeowners in general are optimistic about the domestic market and even though the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes dropped by 2.6% in April to an average of $220,900, a poll by the Boston Consulting Group found that 55% of Americans believe their house would sell for more money now than last year and 85% expect their home to be worth even more in five years than it is now.

The figures witnessed have led to a number of new trends emerging not normally seen in the US market. The Wall Street Journal reported that American property investors are now looking outside the domestic market and in the last two years the number of global real estate mutual funds launched in the US has doubled.

Similarly in May a survey commissioned by the National Apartment Association in the US found that an unpredictable housing market, marked by uncertainty regarding mortgage rates and concerns about rising foreclosures, indicates that many homeowners view renting apartments more favourably than they did in the past.

While renting was previously seen as dead money, in the current climate it now being seen a viable, or alternative, option and of those surveyed 65% believe that, given the current state of the market, there are many advantages to renting.

While US buyers have mixed feelings, the Bank of Ireland certainly appears to still have confidence in the market as late last month Bank of Ireland Corporate Banking announced the establishment of a property business in the United States, which cover all major market sectors from office to residential and retail.

Like everything to do with property, research and education are key to dealing in the American market. While Florida, California and the traditional hotspots may not be the great performers they once were, the national average is still going in the right direction. Buyers may be smart to look to areas that they previously may not have considered and may not be the traditionally glamorous locations that make the headlines.




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