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Market wrap: Badweather drains C&C's share price
Ken Griffin

   


DRINKS group C&C was, by far, the worst-performing equity on the Irish stock exchange last week amid fears that the unseasonal weather in Britain would eat into the company's cider sales.

Merrion Stockbrokers cut its UK sales growth forecasts for Magners cider by a quarter from 40% to 30%, which left the C&C share price below the 10 barrier for the "rst time since March, losing more than 10% of its value over the past week.

Meanwhile, the antagonists in a long-running aviation takeover battle, Ryanair and Aer Lingus, experienced contrasting fortunes after the European Commission ruled against Ryanair's hostile bid for the former state carrier.

Aer Lingus shares, having traded as low as 2.50 in recent weeks, rose by 4.3% to 2.66 while Ryanair shares dropped by only 1.3% as the market had largely foreseen the commission's decision.

Despite their recovery last Thursday and Friday, Aer Lingus shares are still trading below Ryanair's offer price, which stood at 2.80.

Across Europe, oil companies rallied last week as crude prices rose to a 10-month high in New York on expectations that demand will accelerate with the summer travel season. The contract for August delivery touched $70.75, the highest intraday price since 31 August.

Prices are up 1.6% this week.

As result, Royal Dutch Shell, Europe's largest oil company by market value, advanced 2.4%. BP, the second-biggest, added 3.3%.

Total , Europe's biggest oil refiner, jumped 2.6%.

In the telecommunications sector, Vodafone paced gains by phone companies as investors bought shares of companies that pay the highest dividends. It rallied 7.6% while BT, Britain's largest phone company, climbed 4.9%.

Overall, the Dow Jones Europe Stoxx 600 Telecommunications Index rose 2.7% this week, the best performance among 18 industry groups in the broader measure. The Stoxx 600 Telecommunications Index in Europe has the highest dividend payments relative to share prices within the broader Stoxx 600.

Banks and insurers made limited gains, declining on speculation that central banks will need to keep raising interest rates to quell inflation. US Federal Reserve policy makers said on Thursday that inflation remains their "predominant" concern as the housing slowdown won't stop the economy from expanding.

Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, dropped 2.2%. Aviva, the UK's biggest insurer and parent of Hibernian, fell 2%. The Stoxx 600 Insurance Index fell 1.9 % this week, the worst performance among the index's 18 industry groups.

Barclays, Britain's third-biggest bank, fell 3.3%. Higher borrowing costs erode the value of bonds held by banks and insurers and reduce demand for loans.

Northern Rock, Britain's fourth-largest mortgage lender, sank 8.7%. The company said on Wednesday that earnings will probably miss analysts' estimates.

The stock pared some of the losses on Friday after Goldman, Sachs & Co recommended buying shares, saying they have fallen too far.

However, shares of Banca Popolare di Milano jumped 3.9% on speculation the Italian bank may become a takeover target after it scrapped its planned takeover of rival Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna.

In the exploration sector, Anglo American lost 3.3% as Cazenove on Monday lowered its recommendation for the world's second-biggest mining company to 'in-line'. Analysts said the stock is now more expensive than rivals BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group based on 2008 earnings estimates.

Meanwhile, shares of Eiffage, the French construction company fighting a takeover bid from Spain's Sacyr Vallehermoso, rose 11% after Les Echoes reported on Tuesday that the builder is open to new investors, citing an interview with chief executive Benoit Heitz.

The world's biggest office supplies distributor, Corporate Express, rallied 7.4% after it hired advisers for a strategy review after a hedge fund bought a stake, pushing the stock higher on speculation the company may be sold.

A spokesman wouldn't comment on whether the company was for sale, and said the announcement was a response to Centaurus Capital's share purchase this month.

Centaurus has declined to comment on its investment in Corporate Express.

In the food sector, Danone gained 4.3% after reports that it may sell its LU cookies division if it receives a satisfactory offer. Kellogg and Kraft Foods are among the possible bidders.

Bloomberg

Milestones

ARTIFICIAL life made in the lab came a step closer last week as scientists led by Craig Ventner transformed one bacterium into another by rewriting its genetic code. The breakthrough could transform medicine and biofuels production and could even address climate change.

Numbers

.DUBLIN ISEQ 9,306.25 Down 0.95% on week
.EUROPE DJ Stoxx 50 3,946.98 Up 0.62% on week
.LONDON FTSE 6607.90 Up 0.62% on week
.NEW YORK DOW 13,408.70 Up 0.36%
Nasdaq 2,603.23 Up 0.55%

Equity movers

IRISH SHARES

GAINERS

Company closing % Petroceltic .20 9.84 Thirdforce .35 8.70 Providence Resources 088 8.64 Trintech .4.55 7.06 Aminex .32 6.67 Kenmare Resources .98 6.53 Paddy Power 23.07 5.83 Aer Lingus 5.10 5.66 LOSERS Company closing % Bank of Ireland 14.94 2.35 Abbey Plc 0.22 3.04 AIB 20.21 3.53 Boundary Capital 1.06 3.64 FBD Holdings 31.75 3.73 McInerney Holdings 2.41 3.98 Donegal Creameries 6.60 5.71 IAWS Group 15.50 5.78

INTERNATIONAL

LOSERS

Vodafone 167.8p 7.56 AT&T $41.24 6.07 Dell $28.7 5.97 BT 332.5p 4.89 Statoil 183.5NKr .26 Chevron $84.86 4.06 Cisco Systems $27.94 3.79 BP 603p 3.34 UBS 73.6SFr 2.32 ABN Amro 34.05 2.71 Assoc Brit Goods 888p 2.74 Lehman Bros $74.48 2.79 Tesco 418.5p 2.84 Barclays 696p 3.27 Standard Life 330.25p 3.58 Debenhams 129.75p 4.95 Babcock & Brown 32.08AusD 5.03

The week ahead

MONDAY Irish Stock Exchange begins first session with Deirdre Somers as chief executive Financial Regulator's new consumer protection code takes effect Calyx EGM NCB manufacturing PMI Eurozone, UK and German manufacturing PMI US ISM index
TUESDAY IFG Group AGM Irish GDP (Q1) OECD consumer prices UK construction PMI ESRI quarterly economic outlook Department of Finance monthly budget figures Executive director of the International Energy Agency, Claude Mandil, speaks to Institute for European Affairs
WEDNESDAY US market holiday NCB services PMI Eurozone, UK and Germany services PMI THURSDAY CRH trading update Donegal Creameries AGM ECB and Bank of England interest rate decisions UK industrial production
FRIDAY Aer Lingus AGM Irish unemployment UK industrial production US earnings and unemployment German industrial orders

The week that was

HOUSE PRICE HINDSIGHT HOUSE prices have continued their threemonth slide with another 0.8% decline in May, matching the dip in April, according to the latest Permanent TSB/ESRI house price index.

Overall prices have dropped 2.1% this year, leaving the average price of a home just 2.6% higher than at this point last year when the boom was still rolling along at a 15% annual clip.

There was some good news for first-time buyers, however, as they faced price tags 1.8% lower last month. Also on the bright side, commuter counties Louth, Meath, Wicklow and Kildare recovered from a 1.8% drop in April to post a modest 0.3% rise in May. Prices in this region are down by 3.3%, but year-on-year growth rose by 3%.

Dublin prices are suffering more than those outside Dublin, too . . . a change from earlier surveys. The price of a house in the capital fell by 1.2% in May, compared to 0.8% elsewhere.

Commenting on the results, Permanent TSB head of marketing Niall O'Grady said the fact that the period under review coincided with the general election, when uncertainty about stamp duty reform was at its height, could account for the declines.

So by August, with uncertainty gone, we should be able to tell you for sure whether you should have sold in January.

TAKING THE SHINE OFF APPLE

DESPITE Apple's super-hyped iPhone going on sale in the US last week, smart phone maker RIM showed there's still juice in its BlackBerry after turning over $1.08bn during its first fiscal quarter, 76.5% more than first quarter revenue last year.

RIM shipped 2.4 million BlackBerries during the period, while rival smart phone veteran Palm shifted 750,000 units in the same period. Palm's revenue was $401.3m compared to a disappointing $129m last year.

Apple estimates it will move 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, equating to around 1% of the overall handset market.

BRAINY FOREIGNERS

IT'S going to be more difficult to argue that immigration is a threat to the Irish economy following the latest release of census data from the Central Statistics Office.

New population figures show that foreigners account for 13.6% of the labour force, or more than one out of every eight workers. Yet the foreign over-15 population is only 11.2% of the whole, actually indicating their over-representation in the workforce.

Now, before shouting "they're stealing our jobs", consider the following explanation: immigrants are smarter on average than the native population. The CSO also reports that, in 2006, 43.8% of the non-Irish population aged 25-44 had a thirdlevel qualification compared to 41.3% of the Irish population. No points for guessing which indicator is a reliable predictor of employment. At least the trend offers some hope for the Irish: the spread in 2002 was 45.3% to 34.4%, so the gap is narrowing.

Still, with all those non-Irish brainboxes walking around, you have to wonder why immigrants make up a third of the workforce in hotels and restaurants . . .double the proportion in any other sector.

BLOGFIRE OF THE VANITIES

THE head of the unit which runs the two Bear Stearns hedge funds that were facing collapse last week somehow found time amid the chaos not only to secure a $1.6bn bailout, but also to a catch a movie . . . Mr Brooks . . . and blog about it.

Richard Marin posted a review of the film on his blog, Whim of Iron, amid scattered commentary concerning his employer and its response to the hedge fund crisis. The blog is now locked. No word yet on whether the fund performance has improved.




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