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It's hard to be humble when you're 50k up

 


WHEN I was a young monkey my mother used to love to sing along to an old country ditty, the words of which went like this:

'Oh Lord it's hard to be humble When you're perfect in every way I can't wait to look in the mirror 'Cause I get better looking each day.'

That's much how I'm feeling at the moment. Does that make me a smug little monkey? An insufferable one, perhaps? Maybe. Not that I care. I AM MONKEY. I CAN DO NO WRONG.

Regular readers will have guessed by now that the 50,000 barrier was surmounted this week.

Even better, it was done in style. My long bets on Elan and the Nasdaq continued to go my way this week.

New positions in IBM (long), Microsoft (long) and Ebay (short) contributed further spondulicks.

Microsoft was bought after dipping to its 200-day moving average for the first time in months.

I closed the position completely two days later for a 1200 profit.

Yummy. Ordinarily, I'd have scaled out of the position but the stock has been lagging the Nasdaq recently and its 50-day average was just ahead, so I sold the lot.

IBM was another moving average play, touching its 50-day average (near $104) for the first time since April. I sold half two days later when the stock met some minor resistance near $107. IBM's chart is more bullish than Microsoft's so I'm going to hold onto my remaining position for now.

I mentioned Ebay last week and I managed to catch it . . . just . . . on Monday. It touched its 50-day average before falling away almost immediately. I haven't had a chance to book some profits yet but hope to do so in the coming days.

It's always nice to make money but it's even better when it's easy money. All three trades were nobrainers and, like so many trades I've made over the last few months, didn't give me a moment's stress.

Markets don't always behave so compliantly. Usually, you have to accept a fair degree of choppiness and 'tickled tummy' moments. For some time now, however, trading conditions have been dream-like. In fact, I could have made a lot more money over the past month or so.

Looking through my charts, I found a ton of set-ups that I missed out on.

Only a handful failed to respond in textbook fashion.

Anyway, the 50,000 milestone is gone. It's taken almost ten months to double my stake. My original target of 100,000 within a year remains a long way off. In truth, it was always a little fanciful . . . an aspiration rather than a realistic target. Some traders do manage to make serious money in the blink of an eye but I'd prefer to double my money intelligently than quadruple it through astronomical bets.

That's why, on the whole, I'm chuffed with my progress. Sure, I've made some poor trades . . . who hasn't? . . . but I haven't committed any major sins. I haven't taken on massive positions, no matter how certain of the outcome. I've been patient and haven't chased stocks.

For example, I've been looking in vain for a long entry in Research in Motion over the past few months.

The stock refused to pull back until last week, when the chart "nally said 'buy'. Unfortunately, earnings were being reported within days. I rarely buy in advance of earnings and had to pass on the trade. The stock subsequently sky-rocketed and is now trading at $210 . . . a rise of $50 in a matter of days.

In my early days, I'd have falsely deduced that I 'should' have bought the stock. These days, I ignore my gut instincts and stick to following my rules.

Most importantly, I've used stop loss orders on every single trade, no exceptions. Like most traders, I'm tempted to pull my stop when it looks like being hit. It's not easy taking a loss. It's particularly sickening when your stop is hit only for the position to reverse back in the direction you'd hoped for.

My biggest loss this year occurred last May when rumours of a Microsoft takeover caused the Yahoo stock price to open way, way above my stop loss order. I exited at a brutal price and . . . even worse . . . had to watch as the stock soon gave up all its gains. If I'd pulled my stop, I'd now be looking at a tasty pro"t. Instead, I took a bad beating.

Over the following weeks, however, I made some spectacular profits. Now, I don't believe in karma or any such airy-fairy nonsense . . . it's a random world, people . . . but it's as if the market rewarded old Monkey for keeping a cool head and remaining disciplined.

Talking of profits, my biggest came about when Amazon surged forward in May. It's worth noting that the stock rose less than 20% between my entry and my exit. That's nice, but nothing to write home about, one might think. So why was it a big winner? Because I was able to take a very large position without taking on undue risk. In terms of risk: reward ratios, this was the perfect trade. Technical analysis is important but money management is more so.

I'm not blowing my own trumpet here (that's limited to the first few paragraphs). I'm just trying to outline a few basic trading principles that have served me well in the market.

Trading is not rocket science. It's actually a pretty easy game once you figure out how to play it.

What next for Monkey? More profits, hopefully. I'm looking to buy Oracle, Nvidia and Apple (the fact that it didn't sell off on the iPhone announcement implies that more upside is likely) on pullbacks. That said, the Nasdaq is ripe for a pullback so I'm looking for shorts also . . . Adobe looks like a nice short near $42.

Here's to the next 50,000.

Weekly gain/loss: + 3700
Overall balance: 53,500

marketmonkey@tribune. ie




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