SOME things that almost certainly won't happen in Clones today. Monaghan won't lie down like Donegal did when making Tyrone look untouchable in the Ulster semi-final. And Tyrone won't throw in a feckless, ahsure-what-odds display like Galway did last Sunday in providing Sligo with a shot at an upset in the Connacht final.

Based on this pair of convictions, both a hiding and a shock are eased out of the equation and we're left with the most likely scenario . . . a three- or four-point Tyrone win. Simple, yes?

Well, up to a point. Most likely it might be; an article of faith it is not. Put it this way . . . if you'd sat Seamus McEnaney down in January and offered him an Ulster final against Tyrone with Stephen O'Neill and Enda McGinley on the bench and Brian McGuigan in his civvies, you'd still be carrying a scar where he tried to snatch your arm off.

Because make no mistake, Monaghan aren't walking into this as wide-eyed innocents intent on making a game of it. An Ulster final was the least of their ambitions for this year, base camp for further missions.

The named teams are most likely a bit of a sham. John Paul Mone won't be using an Ulster final to see how he likes trying out midfield for size whereas it's hard to imagine Kevin Hughes being anywhere else come throw-in. But we can be reasonably sure of a few things.

Tommy Freeman will have Ryan McMenamin for company while Damien Freeman tries to outDooher Brian Dooher. If either brother comes out on top, Monaghan are in business. If both do, Tyrone are in bother.

The big imponderable here is that although we know and have seen just how good Tyrone can be, we're still to some extent in the dark as to how far Monaghan can go. Up to now, they've lost one game all year and were even the better side for long stretches of that league semi-final against Meath. They've beaten Down and Derry without getting much credit for either victory. Who's to say they're not what racing folk would call an improving sort?

Who's to say they're not Sublimity scuttling along behind Brave Inca, waiting to pounce?

Look, the safe choice here is Tyrone, of course it is. This isn't their best team but it's not a bad imitation of it. A quick start, an early goal and they could find themselves in front after 15 minutes and would likely close it out from there. But where's the fun in a safe choice? To hammer the racing thing to death, let's steal from Richard Baerlein and declare that now is the time to bet like men.

Monaghan. For the hell of it.

Verdict Monaghan

TYRONE J Devine; R McMenamin, C Gourley, D Carlin; D Harte, C Gormley, P Jordan; J McMahon, S Cavanagh; B Dooher, R Mulgrew, G Cavlan; C McCullagh, K Hughes, O Mulligan

MONAGHAN S Duffy; D Mone, V Corey, D McArdle; D Morgan, G McQuaid, D Freeman; E Lennon, JP Mone; D Clerkin, S Smyth, S Gollogly; C Hanratty, R Woods, T Freeman