EVEN though he was never as eloquent on the course as off it, Alistair Cooke had Carnoustie mapped when he said the fearsome Scottish links had every kind of trouble a person could imagine, but that its masochistic appeal was reduced by the "ugliest surroundings in the universe". So pity us then later this week as we emerge from our scruffy small-town B&Bs to bear witness to the winning and losing of the season's third major championship.

The storylines will probably be inconsequential. Just Tiger Woods attempting to equal the record of the three British Open wins in a row, on a course where Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Tom Watson burned their names into the game's history, and where so many hearts and minds were broken during the chaos of 1999.

Perhaps Padraig Harrington will realise a dream and become the first European to win a major since Paul Lawrie eight years ago, perhaps Phil Mickelson will finally get to grips with the wind, the rain, the idiosyncratic breaks of seaside golf and cradle the Claret Jug for the first time, and perhaps Ernie Els's quest to surpass Woods will begin in earnest.

Or could it be that someone like Zach Johnson or Angel Cabrera will emerge from the shadows as Lawrie did, or that someone will fall off the ledge as Jean Van de Velde did? Will a hardened Sergio Garcia, who wept on his mother's shoulder in '99 after shooting 30 over par for two rounds, have his revenge on Carnoustie, and will Rod Pampling, who embarrassingly became the first player to lead an Open after round one and then miss the cut, have his?

They say that the top of the Eiffel Tower is the best location in Paris because from there, you can't see the Eiffel Tower. Carnoustie's a bit like that. Once you're in the middle of the links, with its snaking fairways and its bunkers which lurk like growlers, and you're blissfully unaware of nearby Dullsville, east coast of Scotland, then you're on a fitting stage for a major.

Johnny Miller called it the "hardest course in Europe", and as someone who once won at Oakmont, he should know a thing or two about what constitutes a challenge. The problem in 1999 was that a combination of unseasonal weather and an over-zealous greenkeeper meant that Carnoustie redefined the whole notion of a tough golf course.

The fact that the players moaned . . .after all, they've been known to moan when a courtesy limousine pulls up with a hubcap missing . . . wasn't necessarily a cause for great concern, but when Nick Price, who is as generous and easy-going as they come, said if he had been a spectator, he would've asked for his money back, the R&A knew they had got it badly wrong.

If a drive was five yards off line, it was a triumph just to find the ball in dense rough which would have comfortably hidden an enemy platoon, but if it happened to finish 30 yards off line, the lie might have perversely been fine. That was what got the players in a lather, and following Van de Velde's implosion and Lawrie's totally unexpected play-off triumph, John Hawkins, who was writing for Golfweek magazine at the time, summed up the most bizarre British Open of them all.

"Instead of ending the century on a joyous note, the Royal and Ancient inexplicably cast itself as the Ruthless and Arrogant, turning one of the world's most demanding courses into a 7,400 yard pinball machine and allowing the Unabomber of greenkeepers to man the flippers."

If Garcia and Pampling, who are returning to Carnoustie this week, and if Van de Velde, who isn't due to ill health, all needed different forms of therapy in the aftermath of that championship, there won't be carnage of a similar nature this time.

Although the R&A had hoped for a fast, running course in the image of Hoylake last year, the links is likely to be relatively lush, and much more forgiving. "We have softer conditions and the rough has not yet sprung up, " explained R&A chief executive, Peter Dawson. "It's going to be a fair bit more generous than last time."

That said, Carnoustie at 7,421 yards is the longest course in British Open history, and harsh weather could make it tough once again. After the bonehard demands of Augusta and the punishment meted out by Oakmont last month, you get the feeling that another traumatic major week might be too much for some of the world's leading players.

But not for Tiger Woods. Halfway through an underwhelming season of a mere three victories on the PGA Tour, as well as second-place finishes at both the Masters and the US Open, there is every reason to expect that he will wrap up a hat-trick of British Open wins, a feat last recorded by Peter Thomson between 1954 and '56.

It is true that by his own standards, he appeared to be somewhat distracted at last weekend's AT&T National where he finished in a tie for sixth, however, by the way some commentators have been talking and writing, it's as if someone who deals with the stresses and strains of a superstar existence on a daily basis has suddenly been overcome by the arrival of a baby.

If Woods was able to put on a demonstration at Hoylake last year and to win convincingly with the recent death of his father hanging over him, then parenting is hardly something which will derail his game.

On the debit side, he will almost certainly need to use his driver more often than at Hoylake, and the penalties for mistakes will be more severe at Carnoustie. However, if he putts well this week, major title number 13 should be added to the roll of honour. Some naysayers have also been making much of his failure to win from the final Sunday pairing at Augusta and Oakmont, yet that is surely more of an anomaly than a sign of vulnerability.

"It was really hard, " he said when asked about the last Carnoustie Open when he finished in a tie for seventh place. "I've never played a golf course as hard as that course was set up, and as unfair as it was set up as well. I think the R&A probably learned a lesson from that."

For his main rival, Phil Mickelson, the omens are much less favourable.

After contending at Troon in 2004 behind Els and the surprise winner, Todd Hamilton, for the first and only time, it seemed that he had at last solved the riddle of the links, but he was once more out of the frame in the past two seasons. "I've not played in the Open as well as I would've liked, " he said with a hint of irony. "I've still to perfect some of the shot-making."

Before the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond, he had missed three consecutive cuts for the first time since 1995, is recovering from a wrist injury, and finds himself in the throes of a Butch Harmon masterclass aimed at curing his eccentricities off the tee. "If we can get him to play out of the fairway, " said Harmon, "he can rival Tiger."

At Carnoustie, that's a very big if.

FIVE TO FOLLOW AT CARNOUSTIE

JIM FURYK (USA)
Age 37
World ranking 2
2007 form
T13 Masters, T2 US Open; 7 top 10s PGA Tour
Major wins US Open 2003 Open record 11 appearances, 4th last year

Agonisingly close to a second US Open title last month and in the middle of another impressively-consistent season. It appears from his fourth-place "nish at Hoylake last year that Furyk has learned how to handle links golf following a string of missed cuts at the Open. Epitomises precision and patience and could be exactly the sort of player to stay out of trouble and plot his way around Carnoustie. Hard to imagine that he will finish his career with just one major title.

Betting 20-1

NICLAS FASTH (SWE)
Age 35
World ranking 20
2007 form T55 Masters, 4th US Open; won BMW International, 2nd European Open
Major wins none Open record 4 appearances, 2nd 2001, MC last year

Went close at Lytham in 2001 but is now a much more experienced and capable player. Unquestionably Europe's form horse at the moment - with a win, a second place and two top 10s from his last four tournaments - and but for a lack of luck on the greens at the K Club, last Sunday he would have won again. He will go to Carnoustie with as much con"dence as any of Europe's leading players. Well worth an each-way flutter.

Betting 40-1

JUSTIN ROSE (ENG)

Age 26
World ranking 21
2007 form T5 Masters, T10 US Open; 2nd BMW PGA Championship
Major wins none
Open record 5 appearances, T4 (am) 1998

Hasn't exactly risen like a phoenix from the ashes of his early professional career, but seems to be making those vital little improvements every year. Rose has produced strong showings at both the Masters and the US Open. While he has failed to qualify for the Open over each of the past three years, his memorable performance as a teenage amateur at Birkdale in 1998 offered an exciting indication of his ease on a tough links course.

Betting 28-1

SERGIO GARCIA (ESP)

Age 27
World ranking 12
2007 form MC Masters, MC US Open; T3 WGC CA Championship
Major wins none
Open record 10 appearances, 5 top 10s, T5 last year

No, we're not having a laugh here. Quite a few Garcia devotees lost heart at Hoylake last year when he set out for the final round just one stroke behind Tiger Woods but wound up trailing by seven.

Garcia is as talented as anyone - bar the world number one - and if he could putt at a major the way he does at the Ryder Cup, he would have won two or three titles by now. Under the radar this week after missed cuts at Augusta and Oakmont, he should not be overlooked.

Betting 25-1

GRAEME McDOWELL (IRE)

Age 27
World ranking 120
Major wins none
2007 form DNP Masters, T30 US Open; T18 European Open Open record 3 appearances, T11 2005

A touch of patriotism, maybe, but a touch of realism as well. Of the home contingent, only Padraig Harrington comes into the championship with more hope than McDowell - even if there is bound to be a greater share of the spotlight on players such as Darren Clarke, Paul McGinley and Rory McIlroy.

McDowell fell away badly last year after taking the first-round lead but should have learned from the experience.

Betting 80-1
(prices courtesy of Paddy Power)

THE BRITISH OPEN
Thursday. . .Sunday, Carnoustie Live daily, BBC Two, Setanta Sports Ireland