The Offaly man is by far the favourite at the current time but there are many in Fianna Fail pondering just what the political landscape might look like in several years' time. Some senior ministers, including Micheal Martin, Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern, still hold firm ambitions to become Fianna Fail leader. Another contender stepped forward last week.

It has taken Brian Lenihan more years than were necessary to reach full ministerial rank but, now that he's arrived at the cabinet table, the new justice minister is already throwing shapes. His attack on the policy of outsourcing government decision-making to independent agencies was classic Fianna Fail. "That isn't a viable way of running a countryf right across the range of government business . . . of setting up agencies and bodies at one remove from the government, to whom the government can then adbicate responsibility for dealing with certain matters, " Lenihan told the McGill Summer School in Co Donegal. At first consideration, here we have a thoughful contribution from a Fianna Fail minister. But then recall that since Bertie Ahern first became taoiseach in 1997 he has led the rapid expansion of these quangos . . . quasiautonomous non-governmental organisations . . . which undertake a variety of functions, many of which were previously regarded as the 'core' functions of government.

In 1927, there were three of these types of bodies operating in Ireland. By 1979, the number was put at 80.

The figure today . . . according to a 2006 report by the policy think-tank TASC . . . is in the region of 500. The TASC report estimated that there is one public body for every 5,000 people living in the country. But that figure is a conservative one, as the government does not know how many quangos it controls. The government likes agencies at one remove from itself as they achieve political distancing . . . putting space between ministers and contentious issues. So Lenihan is actually courting all sides with his attack on a policy actively pursued by the government in which he has been a backbench TD, junior minister and now senior minister. Another leader in waiting. And Ahern won't like that one bit.

Immigration can have a good impact

BERTIE Ahern's favourite academic guru has shifted his research onto immigration. Robert Putnam so impressed Ahern with his writings about the decline in volunteerism that the Harvard professor was brought over to address a meeting of the Fianna Fail parliamentary party.

Now Putnam has published new research on the impact of immigration on his favourite concept, 'social capital', the network of friendships which binds communities together.

According to Putnam's new work, ethnic diversity reduces social capital. He says that the higher the diversity in a community the lower the levels of trust, political participation and good feeling between and within ethnic groups.

The controversial findings have been latched onto by the conservative right in the United States although Putnam argues that the problem is a short term one, as with the correct politics the long term impact of immigration can be positive.

In an interview with the Guardian newspaper last week, Putnam said, "what gets the conservatives irritated is that I say the task is not to 'make them like us' but to create a new 'we' . . . a new, more encompassing identity." Ahern is a big fan of Putnam's book, Bowling Alone, about the decline in community spirit but it remains to be seen if he engages with the American's theories on immigration.

THEY'RE a tight lot, those candidates for the six university Seanad seats. No offers from any of them for the two ballot papers I offered for sale last weekend. A tight lot and, at heart, a conservative bunch. There were several congratulatory emails and phone messages from candidates welcoming the spotlight being placed on the sham that is the election to the Upper House.

There were also a number of complaints that I was just filling space in the silly season (not true but it must be the silly season when this column is giving more space to the Seanad) and engaging in an illegal act. Anyway, RTE producer Peter Mooney tells me he got in well ahead of me with a fairer use from his Seanad vote by giving it to other family members without a vote.

As for my own ballots, they're still in the top drawer of my desk in Leinster House. But if there's a break-in before the close of polling on Tuesday the cast of culprits will be very small.