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Market wrap: Stocks fall on sub-prime worries

     


IRISH shares tumbled further last week as investors failed to find a path out of the gloom that defines the mood about the Irish housing market and construction sector.

The Iseq is one of the worst-performing indices in the world at the moment, losing 6.6% of its value over the past month and 4.05% this year. It is one of the only bourses in an OECD country or in Europe to be in negative territory on the year.

Elan suffered more than most, dropping more than 7% in the week on news that European regulators refused to approve its Tysabri drug as a treatment for Crohn's disease. While the company plans an appeal, it is facing a decision from US authorities on a similar application later this month.

Iona Technologies lost nearly 10% of its value, and IN&M and CRH also faced declines.

Bourses across Europe dipped last week following three weeks of gains as investors speculated hedgefund losses at Bear Stearns Cos may signal wider problems in credit markets and the strong euro might erode earnings.

"There are fears more hedge funds might get into trouble, " said Juergen Lukasser, who helps manage $20bn as head of equities at Constantia Privatbank in Vienna. "After months of smooth sailing the question of how much risk you're willing to take has come back. In the long run this might lead to more risk aversion, making it more difficult to finance takeovers."

The Dow Jones Europe Stoxx Oil & Gas Index had its worst week in four months after analysts downgraded oil companies including Royal Dutch Shell and To t a l .

BMW and Porsche led automakers lower as the dollar plunged against the euro, making imported cars more expensive in the US The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index dropped 1.6% after rising to within one point of a high reached on 1 June on speculation that mergers and acquisitions will increase. Takeovers in Europe have totalled $1.5 trillion so far this year, compared to a record $1.6 trillion in all of 2006.

Bear Stearns told investors in its two failed hedge funds on Tuesday that they'll get little if any money back after "unprecedented declines" in the value of securities used to bet on sub-prime mortgages.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke said on Thursday there will be "significant financial losses" from sub-prime mortgages, pointing to estimates as high as $100bn.

"The worst is not over in the sub-prime mortgage market, " analysts led by New York-based Chris Flanagan, head of structured finance strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co, wrote in a report published the same day.

Barclays declined 1.5% to 713.5 pence. The US was the second-biggest market for the UK's third-biggest bank last year.

HSBC Holdings, Europe's biggest bank by market value, declined 2% to 895 pence. The bank set aside 20% more than analysts estimated to cover 2006 loan defaults in the US. ING Groep, the largest Dutch bank, fell 1% to 32.59. The Americas are the bank's biggest market.

The dollar fell as low as $1.3842 per euro on Friday, the weakest since the euro's January 1999 debut, on increasing concern losses in sub-prime mortgages will worsen a slowdown in the US housing market and curb economic growth. The U.S. currency lost 0.5% last week.

Richard Delevan Additional reporting by Bloomberg Milestones Numbers CHINA'S economy grew at an annual rate of nearly 12%, the fastest pace of growth in nearly 12 years. The country overtook Germany this month to become the world's third-largest economy after the US and Japan.

.DUBLIN ISEQ 9,027.31 Down 1.18% on week
.EUROPE DJ Stoxx 50 3,910.00 Down 2.05% on week
.LONDON FTSE 6,585.2 Down 1.96% on week
.NEW YORK DOW 13,851.08 Down 0.40% Nasdaq 2,687.6 Down 0.72%

Equity movers

IRISH SHARES

GAINERS
Company price %
McInerney Holdings 2.39 18.32
Blackrock International 53 15.22
Petroneft Resources 86 8.86
ICG 24.00 5.73
Paddy Power 24.00 5.73
Greencore 5.50 4.76
Kenmare Resources 98 4.26

LOSERS
Company price %

Finance Ireland 13 18.75
Iona Technologies 3.40 -9.57
Elan 14.64 -7.28
N&M 3.31 6.23
CRH 34.90 -4.67
Providence 082 -3.53
Aminex PLC 29 -3.33

INTERNATIONAL

GAINERS
Company price %
IBM $114.58 +5.6%
Babcock & Brown $5.46AU +4.4%
Microsoft $30.93 +3.72%
ABN Amro 36.75 +2.48%
GE $40.46 +2.41%
Exxon Mobil $92.42 +2.25%
Apple $140.89 +2.24%
Hewlett-Packard $48.36 +2.22%
Accenture 42.93 +1.54%

LOSERS
Company price %

Blackstone Group $26.19 -12.33%
Lehman Brothers $68.24 -7.05%
Google $514.87 - 6.69%
Morgan Stanley $68.42 -6.35%
Ericsson 26.4SEK -6.03%
Goldman Sachs $208.22 -5.93%
Merrill Lynch $80.69 -5.92%

The week ahead

EARNINGS season continues as the remaining bulk of earnings in pharmaceuticals, technology and financial shares report their latest quarterly numbers.

Even more closely watched will be US economic data, particularly sales data from existing and new home sales.

MONDAY Results: 3M, American Express, Avaya, Equifax, Halliburton, Hasbro, Merck, NetFlix, Texas Instruments
TUESDAY US consumer confidence Federal Reserve governor Mishkin speaks at ECB conference on globalisation UK CBI survey Results: Amazon. com, AT&T, Ceva, Eli Lilly, JetBlue, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, McDonalds, McGraw Hill, Pepsico, Western Union
WEDNESDAY Oakill AGM US existing home sales Beige Book of regional economic data Results: Apple, Boeing, Colgate-Palmolive, Conoco Phillips, E*Trade, Forrester Research, Genzyme, New York Times Co, Qualcomm, Sybase, Symantec, Tribune Co, Xerox
THURSDAY Friends First economic outlook US new home sales, FDA advisory panel on blood & tissue research Irish trade balance (May) New vehicle licences Central Bank quarterly bulletin Results: Elan, British-American Tobacco, Aetna, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Kellogg, McAfee, Raytheon, VeriSign, XM Satellite Radio
FRIDAY US GDP Results: Chevron, WR Grace

The week that was

SPINNING OFF ASSETS

The week began with spilt lattes as media types began falling over one another to analyse Denis O'Brien's EUR200m bid for Today FM, Highland radio and FM 104. With the cash bid working out at more than ten times the turnover of the Emap-owned stations, O'Brien is definitely intent on the acquisition but it's still unclear why he wants the radio stations.

The radio industry is now tuning its dial to the BCI and Competition Authority to see whether they take an interest in the deal as O'Brien already owns a share in national broadcaster Newstalk 106. Will he sell youth station Spin 103.8 to reduce competition scrutiny? It might be worth tuning into Emap too. Is offloading Irish assets a house keeping move ahead of the long-rumoured break up of the publishing giant?

TANKED UP ON TEA

Helped by the magical properties known to be imbued in tea and biscuits the Labour Relations Commision serves to warring parties in industrial disputes, Eircom executives and union bosses agreed to kiss and make up this week. Industrial action has been averted after Eircom decided to honour its 2% payrise owed to staff since May, and unions promised to engage in an internal change program. It's not know what disruptive action unions would have taken, but the Australian owners of Eircom were no doubt concerned about the approach of a disgruntled former employee of Aussie telco Telstra last week. John Patterson used an old British army tank to destroy six telecommunications masts in Sydney, egged on by bystanders enjoying the spectacle of 20 squad cars unable to stop the armoured vehicle. No wonder the LRC is situated in a forti"ed former barracks.

TAKING THE GAS OUT OF PRICES. . .

Gas prices will fall another 11% on October 1 if proposals by the Commissioner for Energy Regulation are approved. Bord Gais had asked for a price cut of around 10%. The move would save the average Irish household around 100 next year, the CER said. Not coincidentally, the ESB also said it wished it could offer lower prices to customers - it was just that mean regulator hitting us all in the wallet. We keep forgetting how the ESB has all of our best interests at heart.

. . .BUT ADDING HOT AIR

You just have to wonder if the VHI is just toying with us. VHI boss Vincent Sheridan (right) demonstrated a previously undiscovered talent for standup comedy when on Friday he said he'd be asking for a premium increase of 8.5% from 1 September. An analysis by IrishHealth. com suggested that VHI subscribers will, under the increased premiums, be paying 24% more than current premiums for equivalent hospital cover at rival insurers Quinn Healthcare and Vivas Health.

What's really going to make VHI subscribers sick, though, is the fact that the request for an increase comes as the insurer has seen its operating margin turn around by 100m. On Friday it reported a 70m surplus, compared with a more than 30m deficit for the previous year. And it's still expecting transfer payments from Quinn. The cheque's in the post.

THE GLOVES ARE OFF

Hopefully Sean Quinn will be covered by his health insurance company for the headache he's sure to be suffering as a result of an earful from Killenaule District Court judge Terence Finn. Seems Quinn failed to appear at court earlier this month despite a summons being issued for his appearance.

Though on Friday, Quinn denied ever being "requested" to attend court hearings. The case involves charges against Tony McCarthy, who had secured an insurance certificate from Quinn Direct but did not have proper insurance cover. For some reason, the local gardai in Mr Quinn's area failed to act on the summons. "If this summons is not served by the next sitting. . .I want the chief superintendent, superintendent, inspector, sergeants and the gardai down the line to come before me here and explain why it was not served, " the judge said.

"I am quite annoyed at this and I can tell you, the gloves are off on this one."

The judge ordered Ireland's richest man to appear at the court's next sitting, on November 8.

But Quinn might have other plans. The statement continued: "Should the company receive any request to attend the court regarding this case we will respond through appropriate channels and send a suitably quali"ed company representative."

So does that mean he'll show up or not?




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