The first Irish nominee was U2's Achtung Baby in the award's inaugural year of 1992 when the eventual winner was Primal Scream's Screamadelica. We had to wait two years for the next one, Troublegum by Therapy? , but as a reminder of just how limpid the music scene was pre-Britpop, the eventual winners that year were M People. That result is generally considered to be the prize's nadir in terms of street cred. After all, Take That's Everything Changes was also on the list.

Suede's eponymous debut album took the gong in 1993, beating Sting . . . yes, Sting . . . as well as PJ Harvey to the prize.

The Mercury was established as an antidote to industry love-in the Brit Awards, but has long suffered from an identity crisis. You have literally no idea what the judges . . . all celebrity journos and broadcasters . . . are thinking and it seems they are more concerned with how the nominees reflect on them as opposed to the music.

Therefore, each year there are sops to classical, jazz and world music. Of course these nominees never win, unless you want to include Antony and the Johnsons, who beat the Kaiser Chiefs to the gong two years ago, in that category. This year the right-on nomination is the jazz quintet Basquiat Strings, whom about 80% of the judges are probably frantically listening to now before September's vote.

Van Morrison's Days Like This was nominated in 1995 . . . the year Portishead beat Oasis, Leftfield and PJ Harvey (again).

If only the newly formed Spice Girls had managed to whip out an album in time. They were nominated in 1997 . . . seriously they were . . . and might have considered they had a chance this year.

Fast forward to 2002 for the next Irish nominee, when Tip lass Gemma Hayes's debut lost out to Ms Dynamite. Lest we forget, The Thrills were also shortlisted in 2003 while Snow Patrol's Final Straw lost out to Franz Ferdinand's debut in 2004.

Incidentally that year saw Amy Winehouse garner her first nomination with Frank.

And so this year our hopes rest with Fionn Regan (14-1 on Paddy Power), the troubadour from Bray who came so close to winning this year's Irish version of the Mercury . . . the Choice Music Prize.

Regan, however, is unlikely to become the first Irish winner. Various bookies have installed Amy Winehouse, 22-year-old Jamie T and current holders Arctic Monkeys as favourites but that is probably because they haven't really heard of any of the other acts.

There are a number of albums that simply do not have a chance of winning. New Young Pony Club are an average electro pop ensemble that probably got nominated on the back of a few smooth singles but before anyone had actually listened to their debut album in full.

If Klaxons win, the prize deserves to be boycotted until the judges come up with something that resemble critical faculties, while Dundee youngsters The View are similarly there to make up the numbers. Dizzee Rascal's excellent Maths + English likewise has no chance, primarily because Rascal won the prize as an 18-year-old in 2003.

Maps and Young Knives are similar makeweights, while Arctic Monkeys have a reasonable chance of becoming the only artist to win it twice. However, Bat For Lashes, aka Natasha Khan, a 27-year-old daughter of a well-to-do Pakistan squash dynasty, is a good outside bet. Her debut album, Fur and Gold, ticks all the requisite boxes. It is a Bjork-like quirkfest written primarily on piano and violin, but is rock 'n' roll enough to feature grinding guitars, innovative percussion and even the odd bow saw.

After last year's populist winner Bat for Lashes is a suitably hip contender. At 7-1 it might be worth a flutter.