ANOTHER deadline come and gone and the Irish Continental Group buyout appears dead in the water.
But while the five-month faceoff between the management team's takeover company Aella and the One51/Doyle vehicle Moonduster has reached stalemate, a bigger threat is looming on the near horizon as credit spreads widen and the market for leveraged debt effectively dries up . . . putting the funding for any putative deal in jeopardy.
Last Thursday the rival bidders missed yet another noconsequence ultimatum by ICG's independent directors to put their cards on the table and confirm the highest price they were willing to offer. Earlier in the week, face-to-face talks to break the impasse reportedly broke down.
However, with global equity markets in a tailspin as investment banks put a freeze on financing leveraged buyouts, either side could find themselves stymied by a sudden loss of backing from leveraged debt.
The same credit crunch has, over just last week, already delayed Cadbury Schweppes's sale of its beverage unit, threatens to scupper an approach from the Carlyle Group for Virgin Media in the UK and left no takers for debt from leveraged buyouts of Chrysler and Alliance Boots. It may even have killed interest among private equity groups in a breakup of Eircom by Babcock & Brown.
"There's pressure to take a second look at debt right now, " said Bernard McAlinden of NCB Stockbrokers. "Spreads have been widening but base costs have been decreasing . . .
there are a few variables moving . . . so things will be taken on a case-by-case basis. Debt risk has always been there, but it's a particular issue at the moment."
The New York Times reported on Friday that as much as $200bn in private equity financing is being held up as commercial lenders and investment banks cool their commitments as the liquidity in the credit markets evaporates following problems with sub-prime related debt securities. The most visible effect in Ireland has been on the stock market, which lost 8bn in value last week alone, but analysts say it could stall deals such as ICG.
"The guys who would be putting up the money would be stalling right now, " said McAlinden. "But it can't last indefinitely . . . everyone is ultimately in the business of handling money."
Stuart Draper, head of equity research at Dolmen, was sceptical that a final deal for ICG would be held up by a global credit crunch.
"Investing is about specifics and the deals that haven't been done are different from ICG, " he said. "Banks are bound to be cautious, but that won't prevent good risks from getting credit - and ICG is a robust credit risk."
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