MARKETwatchers are anxiously awaiting any clue from Jean-Claude Trichet and the European Central Bank on Thursday about interest rates and when the current tightening cycle might end as the Irish market continues to weather a sharp sell-off in equities.
The ECB is not expected to raise rates this time, but the consensus is that the cost of money could still rise from its current 4.25% rate to reach 4.75% by the end of the year. Investors and analysts . . .twitchy after a turbulent week which saw 8.5bn evaporate from the value of Irish shares . . . will be looking to pin down at least one variable in a market heavily dependent on the fortunes of the housing market.
"We have a greater percentage of GDP linked to the housing market and anyone seen with a high exposure suffered [last week], " said Eamonn Hughes, head of research at Goodbody Stockbrokers. "Ultimately it will come back to interest rates and the market will be looking for reassurance from the central banks."
Brokers have blamed nervous international investors for last week's dive in Irish share prices as well as the precipitous 15% drop . . . about 18bn in value . . .the overall market since the the ISEQ briefly topped the 10,000 mark at the end of May. With the US real estate market in dire straits, money is flowing out of banks and construction and into safe havens such as government bonds.
Investors don't foresee a rebound until at least the end of 2007. With house prices dropping for the first time in five years even Bank of Ireland chief executive Brian Goggin, head of the country's biggest lender, has said international investors see "no real compelling reason" to put their money in Irish stocks.
The ISEQ, with a market value of 113.2bn, has more than doubled in the past five years, beating the 73% gain for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. But it has been a relative underperformer this year, having lost 11% of its value since 1 January. Until Friday, most European indices were in positive territory for the year.
"I have been overweight Ireland for most of the last 15 years, and we changed that to underweight at the beginning of this year, '' said Nigel Bolton, head of European stocks at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh.
"The excesses need to work their way out of the system."
Dolmen's head of equity research sounded a note of optimism on that score.
"There is a perception that housing is crashing and will have an effect on the economy and corporations, but when we see the actual data in the autumn, that perception will start to be proved wrong, " he said.
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