26 July, Botswana conference Commerce is generally dull.
It's hard to get excited over industrial minerals. There were many fine papers at the conference, but nothing excites like diamonds.
Spicy De Beers videos had the audience spellbound: women stared at the beautiful jewellery, men at the glamorous models. The diamonds on the supermodels looked real . . . we're unsure of some of their other bits and pieces!
Industry guru James Allan explained that economists don't understand the industry "since they don't understand sex." He meant the intangible value of romance but also demographics.
Older (but not retired) people spend far more on jewelry: old jokes about bankrupting yourself when your spouse discovers the size of the mistress's stone are true!
Unsurprisingly, the rich are different: they spend more.
The big growth has come in the USA, because population and economic growth does not immediately convert into jewelry demand. It happens after you've built your career.
You need things when you're young but can afford them when you're old.
The demographic bulge of Baby Boomers has high income and inherits more.
High disposable income translates into jewelry demand. Divorcees are now big buyers: they've had their kids and want to give their exes the fingers.
That will also happen here.
Having convinced women that their left hands were naked, De Beers are now telling career women: "Your left hand is your heart, your right hand is your voice. Your left hand says 'I do'.
Your right hand says 'I did what?'" Your left hand knows the answers. Your right hand asks the questions. Women of the world, raise your right hand".
Diamonds are addictive: one often leads to others.
People rarely sell. Diamond stocks are low. Though diamond prices have risen, they have lagged behind other luxury goods.
Current indigestion will be solved by constrained supply from low stocks and dying mines. There are few new mines. Synthetics are a different segment.
The film Blood Diamond had negligible impact . . .indeed, De Beers turned the Kimberley Process into a positive marketing initiative against conflict gems and synthetics.
Uncertainties are: Can growth in Asia offset an American slowdown? Consumer confidence remains key to growth. Is there a limit . . . a point at which you'd rather buy a yacht or a horse?
Instead of fighting do-gooders, De Beers has wisely adopted the Kimberley Process as a positive campaign to promote legitimate natural stones . . . thus combating both criminal and synthetic gems. Vendors now must disclose that they're selling a man-made stone.
Few ladies would wear a synthetic . . . though of course synthetic stones are equally 'real' as one born in the bowels of the Earth.
Though De Beers is dismantling its cartel, it's hard to point to anyone who actually suffered from the former arrangement. But its dismantling has reinvigorated the industry.
1 August, Montrose Pizza in Dalkey is interrupted by calls from RTE's Morning Ireland asking about rumours of increased resource taxes. Something must be up; they wouldn't want someone to comment three days after a kite-flying Sunday article.
Generally the era of low taxes is ending: stallions and other exemptions are constrained. Stealth taxes appear. Sure enough the Indo breaks the story. How should we react? No one likes taxes.
We prefer less to more.
Doubtless the industry will moan . . . but unreasonableness hasn't worked from Russia to Venezuela. We should seek the best sustainable deal. If we find oil and prices stay high, who cares? If we don't the tax rate is academic.
The Irish government is being nuanced and pragmatic: by aligning corporate interests with the exchequer's. They could have introduced royalties, which you pay even if unprofitable, increased the tax rate across all projects or made arrangements retrospective. Ireland still has the best fiscal terms.
It's a far cry from Justin Keating's 1970s tax sadism.
It's hardly a surprise.
Siptu has been winding the media up for years; one Magill article seemed to confuse cubic feet with metres!
Frank Connolly's Centre for Public Inquiry was silenced by the former Justice Minister soon after it produced a powerful critique of Irish resource taxes.
Walking to the office I could barely hear Newstalk's Ger Gilroy because of traffic. I exited the main road and hid behind a wall in someone's garden . . . which had the combination of good signal and muted ambient noise.
Radio is more thorough than TV. It's smoothest if you have a relationship of trust.
It's easier to answer searching questions than stupid questions. Don't defend the indefensible. Use humour to deflect.
Until you get to know someone interviews tend to be aggressive and tedious.
You have to put up with basic questions. Usually officials are spinning them with selective definitions. They tend to wander off on tangents or ask non-critical questions.
Once you know an interviewer you get more freedom; they only pull the reins if you're unclear. A good interviewer is your friend. Your target is the audience. It doesn't matter how much you know if no one understands or believes you.
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