OHBOY. I'd forgotten what a torturous business market trading can be. It's been an excruciating week, both for the markets and for Monkey.
I'm not going to rehash the reasons for the recent market slaughter . . . unless you've been on Mars, you should have a pretty good idea what's been going on. Instead, let's take a look at some truly pathetic trades.
I mentioned last week that I was looking to buy into the Dow at its 50-day moving average and the S&P near its June lows. No sooner had I penned the column than the two indices began hurtling down towards my orders. Hours later I was out. As individual speculations, both of these trades can be justi"ed.
Buying both at the same time, however, was absurd . . . the two indices were moving in unison. If I was going to be stopped out of one, I was likely to be stopped out of the other and that's exactly what happened. Two grand down in no time at all . . . I got my butt whipped.
The market action on that day was a sight to behold. It was panic . . .sheer, unbridled panic. I was tempted to get short myself but I couldn't pull the trigger and cursed as new low after new low was hit. As the day wore on, I grew increasingly desperate to get in on the action and get some money back. Eventually I did the deed. What happened? The market surged forward 150 points and stopped me out. It was an incoherent, adrenaline-fuelled trade, the type beloved of clueless newbies everywhere. Shameful, Monkey, shameful.
Next day saw the markets go into free-fall in the last twenty minutes of trade. I went long. It was gutwrenching to do so but I knew that the odds of a bounce come Monday morning were good for technical reasons.
Over the weekend, I made the mistake of reading all the doomladen "nancial articles that were preaching that the end was nigh and other such guff. I had taken a big position . . . too big, but I was very con"dent at the time . . . and started to get spooked. The weekend gave me too much time to ruminate. I had visions of the market opening 300 points lower and the gargantuan losses that would follow.
By Monday morning, I was a bloody wreck. I turned on my computer with a sense of dread I hadn't experienced in years. All was calm, which brought more than a little relief. My stomach rather than my head was still dictating matters, however, and I closed the position when the Dow dipped back towards my original entry point. It was idiotic . . . technical support was holding and I was still in the black. There was no reason to sell. Markets took off in the afternoon. I had said goodbye to an easy 2000 pro"t.
Wednesday provided me with another horrendous experience. I had shorted near the high of the day - there was a price breakout to new highs but I noticed that there was very little accompanying volume and I went short. The market promptly reversed and I began congratulating myself on a truly beautiful trade.
With half an hour or so left in the trading day the Dow had surrendered 150 points and I was up 1500. I'd intended to take some pro"ts but, with price hovering just above its low of the day, I opted to hold on in the hope that a breakout to new lows would prompt an utter capitulation from the bulls. I knew it was possible . . . the action late on in the trading sessions has been nutty recently, with patient traders being rewarded with massive moves in the closing minutes. What happened?
The goddam bulls protected the low of the day and made a sudden run for glory, climbing 258 points in the last twenty minutes. Unbelievable, absolutely unbelievable. There was no news item of note, no obvious catalyst. Of course, I was an absolute sap for not locking in most of my pro"ts. To get knocked out at breakeven when you've been sitting on such gains is unforgivable.
I've made a tonne of other trades this week. Most made sense but the whippy market action has seen me continually get stopped out at breakeven.
At the moment, around 80% of stocks are trading below their 50-day average. That's been a superb bottom signal over the last three years. However, I think we're not out of the woods yet. It's not normal for markets to form a V-shaped bottom . . . that is, to reverse up to new highs after such a strong decline. I'm expecting a bounce but any rebound effort should be met by sellers. I'm looking to short the Dow at its 50day average (13600) or thereabouts.
If it gets that high, it will have retraced half of its recent losses and that level tends to mark a good point for the trend to reassert itself. A fresh wave of massive selling could provide a big buying opportunity in the following weeks. We'll see.
The volatility should continue. For the most part, this is a good thing . . . it brings the opportunity of quick pro"ts. It also brings obvious dangers and traders should be opting for smaller bets with wider stop losses at the moment. I plan on doing a lot more day trading. Some day-trading friends of mine have been cleaning up of late and the intra-day swings have been stunning.
Besides, I'll sleep easier.
Weekly gain/loss: . . . 4,100
Overall balance: 48,700
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