First, consider the figures for May . . . the month when we still had real summer weather. In May 2007, the annualised growth rate in the overall number of foreign trips into Ireland had fallen to 0.5% . . . the second lowest reading in the last four years.

The January through May 2007 period also returned a disappointing 3.4% annualised rate of growth . . . down from 14% for the same period in 2006. In contrast, the number of Irish trips taken abroad has increased 14.6% . . .the second highest annualised increase since 2004.

Now, consider the sources of these figures. In JanuaryMay 2007, the number of tourists from Great Britain declined by 3.8%, while visitor numbers from North America grew by only 2.3%.

In contrast, visitors from the rest of Europe jumped 17.1% (although still down from the 23% growth rate recorded in 2006), while travelers from Other Areas increased by 10.7%.

There is something fishy about these numbers. First, visits from the rest of Europe (excluding the UK) have been growing in double digits since 2005 . . . the year when the EU10 workers migrating into Ireland were first classified as Europeans.

How important was this accounting change? In January-May 2004, Ireland attracted only 495,100 visitors from the rest of Europe (or 22% of the total number of visitors to Ireland). By January-May 2007, the number was up to 919,300 (a full 32.3% of the total). Given the PPS numbers data, subtracting the inflows of the eastern European 'travellers' who come to Ireland for purposes other than tourism, we are experiencing a contraction in the overall number of visitors to Ireland in 2007.

Second, the number of visitors who come from outside Europe and North America has been relatively flat since 2004. In fact, 2004 was the peak year in terms of travel from Other Areas, with some 108,300 visitors to Ireland. In comparison, the January-May 2007 total was 102,800.

This is a far more worrying trend than the slow growth or even declines in visitors from the UK and North America. Currently, the fastest growing segment of international tourism into Europe is represented by travellers from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). According to Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels (JLLH) . . . the world's largest hotel investment services firm . . . in 2006, 43 million Indian and Chinese nationals travelled to Europe. By 2020, this figure is expected to reach 100 million. Adding in Brazil and Russia raises the projected figure to some 130 million.

BRIC tourists tend to spend more, on average, than any other category of tourist. But these tourists also demand more from their destination countries.

According to international research, they look for unique experiences (which Ireland, failing to rank internationally as a destination with recognizable brand equity in the travel sector, lacks), good value of services (something that we can hardly deliver, given our cost base and difficulties in hiring well-trained hospitality staff), privacy and holistic attitude to delivery of recreational services (areas in which we cannot match other European countries where access to the countryside and national parks is more advanced and bungalow blight in areas of natural beauty is less pronounced than here). They might like golf . . . something that Ireland provides in abundance . . . but they also need world class cuisine, museums, theatres, music venues and access to natural amenities . . . all aspects of daily life that are hard to access in Ireland.

These tourists most certainly have little desire to stay in the numerous hotels that we have built across the country in tax-incentivised schemes, often adjoining business parks, industrial estates and industrial plants.

Another major problem is the lack of mobility across the EU for the tourists coming into Ireland due to our opt-out from the Schengen Agreement. The difficulties of getting visas to travel into Ireland are another potential problem. Although there is no data available on the length of the process required to obtain an Irish tourist visa in Moscow or Beijing, it is not hard to imagine that, given the reported waiting lines in the Irish consulates in Russia and China, few have a pleasant experience in gaining access into this country.

Despite the reports from the regional tourism offices showing increasing numbers of (predominantly domestic) travellers, the long-term structural problems in the Irish hospitality sector appear to be daunting. Yet, tourism, especially higher value-added recreational international travel, is the only hope for the organic and sustainable development of our countryside. There is an urgent need to rethink what is being done to develop, promote and incentivise this vital sector in Ireland.

Dr Constantin Gurdgiev is an economist and editor of Business & Financemagazine