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Rich Rafa to reach the summit at last but
Soccer Analyst Liam Brady

 


SO, the hype finally reaches a frenzy today with the Community Shield and the start of the English season proper. As to who will win it and whether that will be a factor in the months to come, well, it's an irrelevance.

What effect did last year's match have?

One thing that will be a huge factor, however, is money. In fact, it's the big issue this season.

More so than ever before, this new television deal is going to transform English football.

It's going to be interesting to see what direction it takes the game and what effects it will have.

One has been emphatically seen already . . . the heavy traffic in the transfer market. Virtually every club has splashed the cash this summer, leaving few with the excuse of a tightened budget. While the number of players bought heightens the excitement and makes it extremely interesting, you would question some of the prices being paid.

That is most visible with the champions. Manchester United have spent a huge amount, nearly �30m on two largely untested young players from the Portuguese league . . . Nani and Anderson . . . and then close to �20m on Owen Hargreaves. Are they worth the money?

Take Hargreaves for example. An industrious player who merely shuffles the ball on to more creative ones, it's hard to believe a holding midfielder like that would have cost so much in a different financial climate.

Indeed, for all they've spent, I wouldn't fancy United for the title. Last year, they were heavily dependent on Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes, both of whom are getting on. Then of course there's Cristiano Ronaldo. He scored a lot of important goals to win them the league but my doubts about him are well known. It almost seems he thinks he's doing Manchester United a favour when he plays like that and it's hard to see him maintaining such form. Of course, if he has a second season at that level, I'll have to revise my opinion but we'll wait and see.

United of course are also about to sign Carlos Tevez after protracted negotiations. This whole issue of thirdparty ownership . . . like all the money running through the game . . . could have wider repercussions for English football, and it's something the FA are going to have to get to grips with very quickly. It's virtually unknown over here and it could have negative effects if it starts permeating the game and goes down to youth level.

Even with Tevez though, United will face a tough challenge this year and the race is going to be very open.

On paper, you would say Chelsea look to have the strongest team.

Though they haven't spent much money by their standards, they have spent it wisely.

Jose Mourinho had a lot of problems with injury last year and now they've finally got sufficient back-up.

But while the absence of players such as Petr Cech was cited as the main reason for Chelsea's problems, I think the real issue was the friction between Mourinho and Roman Abramovich.

The differences seem to have been settled for the moment, but I doubt it would take too much before they resurface. Also, despite Abramovich's wealth, Chelsea have had difficulty getting Frank Lampard and John Terry to sign contracts so you'd question whether all the money there is causing further friction among the players.

For those reasons, I think a surprise bet for the league could be Liverpool.

I really like the look of them as they've got quality everywhere. Their big signing was of course Fernando Torres and, while he has never entirely convinced, he is young and has plenty of talent. He complements Liverpool's other strikers, Peter Crouch and Dirk Kuyt, well and he will get goals for them.

In midfield, Ryan Babel is an exciting prospect while Yossi Benayoun gives a worthwhile extra option. Add to that quality professionals such as Xabi Alonso, Steven Gerrard and John Arne Riise, as well as a superbly organised defence, and you've got a formidablelooking team. They would certainly be my choice.

While those three have all spent money, at Arsenal the big issue is who has been sold. The team has to learn to cope without Thierry Henry but I think they could surprise a few people. If Robin van Persie stays fit and they add more clinical finishing to the quality of their play, fourth place at the least will be theirs again.

Should they or any of the other big three falter, Tottenham are apparently the most likely to break into the top four. I think it would take a big collapse for that to happen. Martin Jol has spent a lot but has he really raised the overall standard of the squad? Indeed, the purchase of Darren Bent is emblematic of this summer's inflated prices.

To pay �16.5m for a player deemed by Sven Goran Eriksson ill-equipped for the World Cup only a year ago, well, frankly, I was flabbergasted.

Tottenham have this policy of signing young English players and it wins them a lot of praise from the media . . .

but also a lot of hype. It would take a few bad days for Arsenal or anyone else to be overtaken by them.

After that, it really becomes a league within a league. Three I would fancy to top it are Blackburn Rovers, Aston Villa and Manchester City. Martin O'Neill might be under pressure to get into the top six but if he does it should be considered very good progress. He hasn't wasted money he's had to spend there and has done well with the group he's got already.

At Manchester City, Eriksson also deserves a lot of respect. After the payoff . . . and criticism . . . he got from the England job he could have sat back and relaxed, perhaps gone into punditry.

But he threw himself in to the deep end again and that takes courage. He has a chance to redeem himself now after England, and I think he'll do so.

Down at the bottom then, it always ends up with nearly eight clubs involved and though Fulham and Wigan could struggle, for me, the three that came up . . . Birmingham, Derby and Roy Keane's Sunderland . . . will go right back down.

Keane performed a miracle to get that team promoted straight away but I think he'll need another to keep them there. I've got reservations over both the players he's got and the players he's signed. They just don't look Premiership quality and are likely to struggle. Anything above third from bottom I think would be an achievement.

But to be fair, Keane proved he could raise their game last year after losing the first four matches of the season and he may well do so again. He's done superbly there already, but survival would really enhance his managerial CV.

If he does so, then he can consolidate for another season and build on the extra revenue year after year, just as Charlton Athletic did under Alan Curbishley. Of course, for Sunderland, with all the cash floating around the game, the prospects will be even greater.

Because in the new Premier League, ultimately, money is going to talk.




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