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Decision to come down to precision
Ciaran Cronin Ciaran Cronin

     


IT'S all been about numbers at the Irish training camp in Limerick this week. On Monday, 48 players and a backroom team of 14 staff assembled at the Castletroy Park Hotel adjacent to the University of Limerick for the team's first full rugby camp of their World Cup preparations. You might worry that a party that size would hardly get the opportunity to say hello to each another, but by Friday afternoon the sizeable rabble had been reduced to a much more sociable 37 for next week's pre-Scotland camp in Dublin.

Although Eddie O'Sullivan has gone on record this week to state that he wanted to keep the extended squad together for as along as possible so as to increase competition, it's still a bit of a puzzle as to why the 48 were called into camp when only 34 or 35 are in genuine World Cup contention.

The only logical explanation for it comes from the sphere of public, or rather, supporter relations. In Tuesday's brilliant sunshine, 3,000 Irish fans from in and around the mid-west region passed up a day on the beach in Kilkee to collect a few signatures at the University of Limerick and a 48-man presence meant that everyone there had a better chance of capturing somebody's scribble on paper.

Now, we're not for one second trying to belittle the role of those on the fringes of the Ireland squad, indeed we have nothing but respect for the talent and application shown over the summer by those not on the coach's favourites list, but the extras in camp this week must surely have spent a moment or two wondering to themselves what was the purpose of having them there. It can't have been an easy week for some of them, particularly the more senior of the crew, although the squad's younger members will no doubt have gained something from the experience.

Meanwhile, as the 48-man squad were doing their best to get to know one another during the week, Eddie O'Sullivan would have been working on a few numbers of his own. Having confirmed the initial cull, the Irish coach will name his 30-man World Cup squad at 11.00 next Sunday morning in Killiney and the first thing he has to confirm in his own mind is what split of forwards and backs to plump for.

In the World Cup squads that have been named across the globe to date, New Zealand and South Africa have gone with a 16/14 forwards/backs division of resources, with Australia, France and Argentina opting for 17/13.

Although the numbers may sound confusing, the main difference between the two is deciding how many back-rowers to bring. Select five and you can tag an extra back onto your World Cup party. Choose six and you'll have to get by with just the 13 piano tuners.

Last time out, back in 2003, O'Sullivan plumped for a 17/13 split and there's no reason to suggest he won't do the same again. For Ireland, the logic is pretty simple. Barring injury, and the possible inclusion of Geordan Murphy should the coach begin to look at him in favourable light once more, Ireland's firstchoice backline is unlikely to change for the duration of the tournament. It would be utterly pointless, then, to bring one more back to sit on the bench.

Selecting a sixth back-rower, on the other hand, makes complete sense. As it is, only two players from Jamie Heaslip, Alan Quinlan, Stephen Ferris and Keith Gleeson will travel to France. To cut that to one would be plain stupid, considering Ireland's back-row quality. It's a no-brainer.

From there, for O'Sullivan, it's down to personnel. In our eyes, 26 players have already guaranteed their World Cup selection, something given credence by O'Sullivan's comments on Thursday that "there are some places up for grabs in the back five (of the pack)" and "the back three".

Props John Hayes, Marcus Horan, Simon Best and Bryan Young are certainties, as are hookers Rory Best, Jerry Flannery and Frankie Sheahan, even if Bernard Jackman has been maintained in the 37-man squad.

Paul O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan and Malcolm O'Kelly will not be usurped, nor will David Wallace, Neil Best, Simon Easterby or Denis Leamy.

In the backs, Peter Stringer, Eoin Reddan and Isaac Boss will be the three scrum-halves, with Paddy Wallace backing up Ronan O'Gara at number 10.

Gordon D'Arcy, Brian O'Driscoll, Denis Hickie, Shane Horgan, Girvan Dempsey and Andrew Trimble will all be in France and while there's a school of thought that Geordan Murphy has irked O'Sullivan to such an extent that he mightn't make the final cut, it's inconceivable that he won't make the squad. Leaving the Leicester full-back out would only give the coach's critics another stick to beat him with should things go wrong in the World Cup, which is not beyond the realms of possibility.

All of which leaves four spots up for grabs. The first is for the fourth second-row spot and it's going to come down to three men . . . Mick O'Driscoll, Trevor Hogan and Leo Cullen. The Munster man hasn't played as well as he's capable of over the past six or so months but he's an O'Sullivan favourite and it will probably take something special from Hogan or Cullen to edge him out of the travelling party. In saying that, the coach also seems to have a lot of time for Hogan, the Munster exile at Leinster, and a special effort in Edinburgh on Saturday could tip things in his favour.

In the back row, the battle appears to be even more intense. On the premise that six are taken to France, we've already highlighted the fact that only two of Quinlan, Heaslip, Ferris and Gleeson can make the party. Of the four, Gleeson appears to have the slimmest hope but if he's afforded an opportunity to play against Scotland, he's more than capable of reproducing the fabulous ubiquity that constantly makes him stand out for Leinster.

It's the other three, however, who appear more likely to make it to France. Jamie Heaslip, much like Gleeson, has been exceptional for Leinster over the past couple of years and his footballing brain is reminiscent of that of Anthony Foley. The fact that he's the only other out-andout number eight in the squad apart from Denis Leamy gives him a major advantage over Quinlan and Ferris, which would suggest that there's only one place available for those two.

If O'Sullivan is in the mood to take a Theo Walcott-esque gamble . . . and we all know how that worked out for poor Sven . . . Ferris is the man but you can't help think that Quinlan is the type of player you'd like in your side when the rugby turns into pitchfork battle, as it's likely to against France and Argentina.

Also, there's a nagging feeling that O'Sullivan feels he owes the player one last opportunity on the big stage after the Munster flanker injured himself in saving the coach's career against Argentina back in October 2003. The one sure thing is that, if Quinlan is picked, he's capable of making a big impact on the tournament.

All of which leaves one backs spot up for decision.

Tommy Bowe, Gavin Duffy and Brian Carney are the contenders and although the coach appears a touch worried about the lack of natural wingers in his overall party, the clever money is on Duffy completing the numbers, on a week where they've been on everyone's mind.

SCOTTISH WOE SHOULD PROVIDE A MEAGRE FOE

WHAT rugby folk in Scotland wouldn't give for a little bit of Irish tranquillity right now, and we're not talking about a pint in a remote pub overlooking the Atlantic. As the IRFU look towards the World Cup, and indeed the game's longer-term future, with strutting confidence, their Scottish counterparts are desperately attempting to stop professional rugby north of Hadrian's Wall from collapsing in on itself.

With the Borders already sixfeet under, and more than a dozen internationals ready to make a living for themselves abroad after the World Cup, it now appears that Edinburgh's future is in serious trouble following a protracted dispute between the club's owners and the SRU that has sparked for well on three weeks now.

The digested version of the sorry tale is difficult to tell, not least because nobody knows exactly how it started. A dispute over bar-takings at Murrayfield after an Edinburgh game has been cited as the spark that lit the flame but since Bob Carruthers, the region's owner, encouraged a number of Scottish internationals to leave if they had other offers in the pipeline, it's been all out war.

The latest instalment of the saga was the decision by the SRU on Thursday to throw Edinburgh out of Murrayfield and there's a genuine chance that Scotland will have only one professional outfit once the Magners League starts. What a shambles.

Whatever happens next, even if the doves of peace descend from the heavens, the row has already overshadowed Scotland's World Cup preparations in the nation's newspapers, and it can't have helped the state of mind of the players during their World Cup preparation.

Still, they've been getting along with things. On Tuesday last, the 39 players still in contention for France divided into three teams to take part in an internal 10-a-side tournament at St Andrew's University. The event, watched by a crowd of around 300 people, was judged a great success by the SRU but it says something about the current popularity of the game in Scotland when 10 times that figure turned up to just to watch Ireland train in Limerick last week.

Not that there'll be much sympathy on view from the Ireland players that take the field at a half-empty Murrayfield on Saturday next. Eddie O'Sullivan is remaining tight-lipped about the make-up of his starting XV for the fixture but he'll surely look to give those players fighting for a World Cup berth one last opportunity to sway his final decision their way.

Bearing that in mind, we're likely to see Trevor Hogan, Mick O'Driscoll and Leo Cullen share the second-row duties, Alan Quinlan, Stephen Ferris and Jamie Heaslip get some game-time in the back row and it's possible that the trio of Brian Carney (right), Gavin Duffy and Tommy Bowe will all start in the back three.

That at least should solve some of O'Sullivan's selection dilemmas and if the coach can get all his players through the game injury-free . . . remember Geordan Murphy four years ago?

. . . the afternoon will have been a success, no matter what the result.

RWC WARM-UP SCOTLAND v IRELAND Saturday, Murrayfield, 2.30 Referee T Spreadbury (RFU)




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