TRANSPORT minister Noel Dempsey arrived at Shanahan's exclusive restaurant at St Stephen's Green in Dublin nine days ago looking forward to his first meeting with Aer Lingus chairman John Sharman and chief executive Dermot Mannion. The airline had invited the new minister along to the launch of its direct service from Dublin to Washington, Orlando and San Francisco but Dempsey and the Aer Lingus bosses grabbed a chance for a quick word in an anteroom before proceedings got under way.
After the usual pleasantries were exchanged, the minister received some unpalatable news . . .
Aer Lingus, it emerged during the conversation, planned to shift its Heathrow service from Shannon airport to Belfast.
Dempsey would have immediately understood the political implications of what he was being told.
Nobody, but nobody, kicks up a political storm quite like the Shannon airport lobby.
In times not long past, the transport minister of the day would have issued a firm rebuff to Aer Lingus about such plans, reminding bosses of the identity of their one and only shareholder. It wouldn't even have come to that. The notion of Aer Lingus taking such a politically sensitive decision in the days when Aer Lingus was state-owned simply wouldn't have arisen.
However, everything changed once Aer Lingus was floated on the stock exchange. The new minister made his concerns known to Sharman and Mannion about the move, expressing disappointment and asking if the decision could be revisited, but he was caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
Even with a 25% shareholding, the government could hardly interfere with a business decision made by a stock market-listed airline. Besides, while the old Articles 2 and 3 of the constitution may be gone, it would be seriously difficult for a Fianna Fail minister to tell the national flag carrier it couldn't move operations to Belfast, particularly in this new era of the all-Ireland economy.
SAYING 'NO' TO SHANNON
But then again, Fianna Fail ministers haven't traditionally been too good at saying no to Shannon either. The fact that, even now, some transatlantic passengers are still forced to stop over at Shannon airport is evidence of that.
The reaction from the midwest to the Aer Lingus decision has been wholly predictable. Some of the highly emotive claims about the economic impact of the decision on the midwest have been nothing short of ludicrous and are clearly part of an orchestrated campaign to try and force the government's hand. Amid all the scaremongering, the facts become even more important: 75% of those travelling on the Shannon- London route are point-to-point passengers who will also have the option of flying to three other London airports. Of the remaining 25%, the vast majority are connecting to US or European transfers and both the US and Europe are currently very well served with direct routes from Shannon. Furthermore Cork airport is just 80 miles away from Shannon.
However, even allowing for some pretty blatant exaggeration of the problem, and the opposition parties understandably trying to take advantage of the government's discomfort, it is clear that some of the warnings about the impact on multinationals in the Shannon region are genuine.
The people who are voicing concerns are not the usual suspects and, given their investment in the economy, have to be listened to. Local Fianna Fail TD Timmy Dooley says direct connectivity is critical for encouraging foreign direct investment to the region. He cites the example of one US bluechip company that chose to forgo huge IDA incentives to set up in the midlands and established its base in Blanchardstown because it wanted to be close to the airport and "critical connectivity". And there is no doubt that, without daily direct flights to Heathrow, or one of the major European hub airports, 'critical connectivity' is lacking.
The real problem for the government is that there is no obvious solution to the impasse. Aer Lingus has stated baldly it is not for turning on the decision and it is difficult to see that changing without management's credibility being seriously damaged. And with slots so valuable at Heathrow, there is unlikely to be another operator willing to come in on a route that Aer Lingus was so happy to forsake.
Worryingly for the government, there is no sign of the controversy dying down. The opposition has questioned the credibility of the government's explanation that last weekend was the first it knew of the decision (some sources suggest the word was out about the decision at senior levels around the airport well before last weekend).
And worse still, the government is being criticised by its own TDs for failing to respond to the Aer Lingus decision. The last thing the coalition needs is a perception it is fiddling while Shannon gets burned. After the 2002 general election, the government seemed to collectively go to sleep after being returned to office, failing to deal with stories during the summer about cutbacks in spending. The damage to its ratings took around four years to overcome.
ALL EYES ON THE TAOISEACH
Government sources are anxious to stress there is no question of the government not taking this issue seriously. They say Bertie Ahern has been on the phone constantly with Noel Dempsey, local Fianna Fail deputies and various business interests in the region.
As ever in these situations, all eyes are on Ahern and how he will react. The Taoiseach must be particularly disgruntled by what has happened. It was no secret he was extremely reluctant to privatise Aer Lingus but finally assented because of fears that it simply wouldn't survive in the cutthroat aviation sector as a state airline.
However, everyone in government, including Ahern, understood that . . . regardless of the state's so-called 'golden share' . . . once they sold the airline, it would be only a matter of time before a commercial decision would be made in conflict with the national interest. They just didn't think it would happen so quickly . . . nor, presumably, did they imagine it would happen on a bank holiday weekend in the middle of August.
Rightly or wrongly, there is barely concealed anger among government deputies at how Aer Lingus handled the announcement, given its political sensitivity.
"It's incredible, " fumed one government deputy.
"If any shareholder with that level of shareholding were so vitally affected by an executive decision, they would be kicking down the door looking for someone to be sacked. . . That's why the decision was made while the government was on holidays."
Another said: "They thought they'd push it out over a weekend and there would be no reaction because of the holidays and it would die a death.
Well it hasn't."
UNWAVERING LINE FROM GOVERNMENT
While there is an understanding in Government Buildings that deputies from that region, including defence minister Willie O'Dea and junior minister Tony Killeen, have to be outspoken on the issue, the line coming from the government . . .
O'Dea's Cromwellian comparisons aside . . . is unwavering. Yes, the decision has unfortunate repercussions; yes, there is significant concern for the midwest; but Aer Lingus is a commercial company and it made a commercial decision. Despite all the jumping up and down, the government's hands are tied.
And, sources stress, there is no difference between Bertie Ahern and Noel Dempsey on the approach being taken. "Minister Dempsey is speaking for the government [when ruling out intervention], " said one source.
The one thing the government has on its side is time. The Shannon-Heathrow flights do not end until January, so there is five months to put in place some form of alternative. Few in government or, privately, in Shannon doubt Aer Lingus when it says it will not reverse its decision and there is no appetite for an alliance with fellow shareholder Ryanair to force an extraordinary general meeting on the matter. There is open scepticism in government circles about Ryanair's motives.
Meanwhile, for reasons already outlined, the chances of getting another operator to fly the route are seen as slim to none.
The only realistic alternative is to persuade another airline to fly from Shannon to one of Europe's other major hubs. Amsterdam's Schiphol airport, which has connections every bit as good as Heathrow, looks the most likely, as Ryanair's presence on routes from Shannon to airports near Paris and Frankfurt is likely to deter other airlines from flying to those cities. It is believed the option of developing a Shannon-Amsterdam route is already being explored, with KLM the most likely operator.
Such an option would certainly get the government off the hook on which Aer Lingus has left it dangling. It would also, it is being privately being pointed out, "call a lot of the bluff" of those in Shannon who insist the issue is solely about connectivity.
Without such a solution, the situation could get quite messy for the government. They cannot afford to ignore the powerful business voices being heard down in Shannon and there is a precedent of Fianna Fail deputies resigning the party whip over Shannon airport.
This is the first test case for the new Aer Lingus . . . institutional investors will be watching closely to see if the government really can keep its paws out of the former state airline . . . but the really unsettling thought for the government is that, particularly with open skies between the US and Europe on the way, it won't be the last.
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