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Monkey loses the head but gets away with it

 


LAST week was disastrous for a misfiring monkey; this week wasn't much better. What went wrong?

Missed opportunities . . . lots of them.

Most traders live for the kind of volatility we've seen recently. Sure, volatility brings hazards, but a decent and nimble trader should be able to exploit it. Not me. I've let big profits get away from me several times. Not only that, I completely lost the head on Tuesday, committing some truly excruciating trading sins that I didn't think myself capable of.

There's no doubt that the recent losses have affected me. I've been dying to 'get my money back', so to speak. That's a very dangerous way to think.

As psychologist and trader Alexander Elder puts it, "Good teachers, doctors, lawyers, farmers and others make money, but they do not count it while they work. If they do, the quality of their work suffers. . . The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary."

I've quoted Elder before, of course. I know this stuff . . . it's not rocket science. That hasn't prevented me from trading like a clueless newbie.

The pain of last week's losses was magnified after I missed out on some easy money with Apple. I'd been looking to buy the stock on a dip to its 50-day average.

My chance came on Monday morning but I was too slow.

Disgusted, I put in an order to buy on a return to the $128 area. The stock came within cents of my order before taking off. Within a day, it was trading at $137. That would have been worth over 2,000 to me. Easy money and I missed it.

Ebay also took off this week, rising more than 10% from its 200-day average near $32.50 . I'd bought the stock last week and only choppy action saw me stopped out at breakeven. Like Apple, this would have been a very profitable (again, more than 2,000) trade. Sickening.

My only other trades were a handful of Dow day trades. I'd been doing OK . . . the intra-day swings have been a sight to behold recently . . . but not nearly as well as I should have.

Anyway, this week was a shortened trading week for me (I was going to be away from my computer for the second half of the week) and I was hoping to make a few quid for myself on Tuesday and end things on a high note.

Tuesday was Federal Reserve day.

Everyone knew interest rates were going to be left untouched, but traders were eagerly awaiting the accompanying policy statement.

Ordinarily, I stay away from the action on Fed day . . . markets usually go haywire and it's almost impossible to get a handle on the price direction. This time, I was hoping to make an exception and to erase the memory of the recent losses.

I was glued to the screen all day but, really, it was like watching paint dry. Traders tend not to make big moves in advance of Fed meetings and Tuesday was no exception.

Finally, at 2.15 EST, the statement was released. I have access to a live news feed but the market tanked 100 points before I even had a chance to read it.

A cursory glance at the wording was enough to see that the bulls did not get what they were looking for. As Briefing. com put it, the statement "showed far less concern about the credit and economic outlook than the "nancial markets had hoped" and reasserted that the "predominant policy concern remains the risk that in"ation will fail to moderate as expected". In other words, don't expect a rate cut any time soon.

It's important to note that the previous day had seen the Dow enjoy its biggest one-day gain . . . almost 300 points . . . in five years. Surely, Monkey thought, traders are going to sell after such an anti-climactic statement? Within a minute of the 100-point drop, the market was headed back up. Such knee-jerk reactions are commonplace on Fed day and I went short, immediately placing my stop just above the day's high.

As it happened, I got in almost at the exact top. I nailed it, as traders like to say. Within a minute, the market had sunk 100 points. I had earned 1,000 in 60 seconds . . . this was phenomenal stuff. I quickly brought my stop to break-even and watched the market bounce before the selling resumed once more.

Within 15 minutes of my entry, the Dow had dropped 150 points. Fifteen hundred euro and counting. Should I have taken profits? Of course, but I didn't. I wanted spectacular profits. I wanted to make up for all the recent cock-ups.

Then the market took off. Within half an hour, it had reclaimed its earlier losses and stopped me out in the process. As it approached its high of the day, I went short again. It was a big bet . . . too big. The Dow kept rising and I was down 1,000 within minutes.

What happened next shook me.

My stop was about to be hit; I pulled it. Even worse, I doubled down and went short again. Within minutes, I was down 2,000. 'Losers average losers' is a well-known trading adage.

I knew what I was doing was crazy but I did it nevertheless. A 250-point rise in 30 minutes . . . I was stunned.

Thankfully, my misery was shortlived. The Dow suffered another big swing and I got the hell out. Ironically, I ended up making a small profit on the trade . . . a pathetic, undeserved profit.

I need to take a break and get a grip. Plan the trade, trade the plan.

No more horrors.

Weekly gain/loss: + 700
Overall balance: 49,400




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