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Opportunity knocks. . . if you can keep your head
Jon Ihle

 


"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs. . . yours is the earth and everything that's in it"

We don't know whether Rudyard Kipling's four stanzas of distilled Victorian virtue ultimately did anything for the son to whom they were addressed, but the old Nobel laureate's pithy wisdom isn't bad advice for investors in a volatile market.

Although at last count the Iseq index of Irish shares had dumped close to 20% of its pre-summer value as the US sub-prime driven sell-off continued to rage, investing in the overall market may not be the mugs' game it appears to be.

Not only is there an opportunity . . . if we're near a bottom . . . to buy low, but Irish shares taken as a whole look underpriced relative to other equity markets. That, according to a counterintuitive note by NCB in the middle of last week, means the Iseq 20 exchange traded fund (ETF) is not only cheap at the moment with a 12.3x priceearnings multiple, but brings attractive growth value, too.

The ETF offers exposure to 20 Iseqlisted shares representing 90% of the market's capitalisation . . . so about as close to investing in the total market as possible, but packaged in a single share.

Moreover, the three banks in the fund . . . Bank of Ireland, AIB and Irish Life & Permanent . . . make up a large portion of the fund's value. The consensus is that Irish bank shares are seriously underpriced at the moment given their expected earnings, according to analysts.

In fact, that's true of the Iseq 20 as a whole, if you credit NCB's growth forecast for the fund of 19% this year and 13% next . . . far better than the 10% and 7% expected for the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 in 2007. While superficially the market may look like a no-go area at the moment, low prices plus growth prospects adds up to a decent bet for those who can keep their heads.

Of course, the Iseq 20 ETF is an NCB product, so it's no surprise to see the stockbrokers trumpeting its virtues.

Nevertheless, the consensus among analysts and economists is that the Irish growth story still has some life in it. Notwithstanding widespread nervousness over the future of the housing market . . . which has driven international investors from Irish shores, dropping share prices . . . nobody is predicting anything less than 4% growth next year.

Neither triumph nor disaster, then.




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