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WEALTH OF NATIONS Arctic powers' oil rush sparks new cold war
CONSTANTIN GURDGIEV

 


THE $4m Russian North Pole flag-planting stunt has been credited as a small step for the Kremlin and a giant leap for Gazprom. Or, if you are living in Russia, the other way around. Regardless of which way the story is spun, there is more to it than meets the eye.

When two Russian subs dropped the nation's flag on the ocean floor underneath the North Pole almost three weeks ago, a symbolic gesture opened the concluding chapter in a long history of Russian claims to the area.

Already being labelled the 'New Cold War', the move shifted into a higher gear the centuries-old disputes between Canada, the US, Norway and Russia over the rights to the strategically important region. The daring raid on the ice-sealed Pole highlights the fundamental issue of testability of international law . . . a problem that will remain with us as humanity expands further and further the frontiers of what we deem to be accessible and habitable space. Now all of a sudden the world has learned that up to a quarter of global oil reserves may be hidden beneath the ice sheets of the Arctic.

Lest anyone accuse Russia of pirate tactics, Moscow has a long history of attempting to gain territorial rights to its share of the Arctic through existent legal means. In 2001, the UN rejected Moscow's claim to the territory based on geological evidence that the Lomonosov Ridge . . . a submerged mountainous range that passes through the North Pole . . . is the extension of the Russian continental shelf. The international law allows the countries to extend their territorial waters beyond the standard 200 nautical miles limit as long as the territory covered is a natural extension of their continental shelf. Russia is currently in the process of resubmitting the new legal bid and fresh geological documentation. If allowed to stand, the Russian claim over the Lomonosov Ridge would increase the country's territory by some 460,000 square miles . . . roughly 23 times the territory of Ireland.

However, the Russian claim is not unique. Denmark has been trying to stake its own claims via Greenland's proximity to the same Lomonosov Ridge and a parallel Nansen Ridge . . . as did Norway, supported by Sweden (via an unspecified connection between the Svalbard archipelago and the North Pole), and Canada (via the Canada Basin). Finally, the US has in the past indicated that it is also interested in taking a slice of the Arctic via the North Slope of Alaska. So desperate have things become that Canada, having no legally grounded claim to the Arctic seabed under the existing system of geological classification, spent decades trying to re-write international agreements to allow basins-based (as opposed to ridge-based) determination of ownership rights.

Confusion over geology, high cost and severe constraints on exploration all mean that the Arctic is the most disputed area amongst the developed nations of the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Denmark and Canada have been in a Cold War-style conflict over the tiny Hans Island, which controls the strategic Nares Strait. Both countries have planted their flags there and, since 1973, not a year goes by without one or the other's navy conducting excursions to 'reclaim' the island. Canada is also at odds with the US over a section of Beaufort Sea. In addition, there are disputed areas in the border regions between Norway and Russia . . . areas with huge potential for oil and gas exploration.

The Russian expedition to the North Pole this month is hardly the first case of the Arctic dispute and it is certainly not the last. In fact, following the Russian planting of the flag, the seabed beneath the North Pole is now scheduled to take delivery of the Norwegian and Swedish flags (a joint expedition was launched last week), a Danish flag and a Canadian one.

And this brings the whole story to the stakes involved in this multinational circus . . . vast reserves of oil and gas, known to geologists for years and only now becoming visible to the general public. Since 1988 the world knew about the supergiant fields of Stokmanovskoye and Ludlovskaya.

Stokmanovskoye alone has gas reserves in the order of 3.1 trillion cubic metres. In the early 1990s, seismic surveys documented a large inventory of additional resources that are likely to be present in the disputed areas between Norwegian and Russian waters.

According to more recent data, combined importance of the West Arctic region of Russian territorial waters alone exceeds, in terms of reserves, some eight trillion cubic metres of gas.

USGS estimates that the Arctic region holds between 100 and 200 billion barrels of recoverable oil, and approximately 57 trillion cubic metres of natural gas. More than 50% of these reserves are found in Russian territorial and adjoining waters. If confirmed, these reserves, together with the expanded programme of nuclear energy generation proposed by President Putin this spring, would secure Russia's position as the world's number one energy superpower.

Finally, one has to look no further than the US's and Denmark's disputes with Canada in order to see the geopolitical importance of the North Arctic. With global warming, it is only a matter of time before the Arctic becomes navigable, allowing for the opening of the Northeastern Passage . . . an allusive dream of all superpowers since at least the 19th century.

Russia's claim to the territory covering the entire width of the Arctic Ocean to the North Pole gives it control over the potentially most lucrative trade routes ever discovered.

At just $4m for a two-sub expedition, this is a gamble worth taking.




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