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Up, down, and all around but a profit's a profit

 


WHAT a week. It's been slaughter out there, absolute slaughter. In weeks like this, the media keep bleating about investor losses and hedge fund closures and how terrible it all is, but anyone who's been short . . . and there are many . . .has made an absolute killing.

In an ideal world, that would have included me. I wrote last week that I was looking to get short if the Dow could make its way up to its 50-day average near 13,600. It did, before proceeding to drop almost 800 points from there.

That 'could' have been a profit of 8,000 or thereabouts.

Mamma Mia.

As it happened, I missed out. I was abroad for a couple of days last week. I nearly vomited when I got back and saw that the Dow had surmounted its 50-day average only to receive a prompt pummelling the next day. If I'm honest, however, this would not have been the wonder trade it appeared to be. The Dow went more than 100 points above its aforementioned average before the selling resumed. That would probably have been enough to stop me out. Even if it didn't, I would likely have closed the trade once the price came back to the break-even point. Is it possible that I would have held on and watched the Dow fall all the way to 12,800 without taking profits? No way. Newbie traders often indulge in this kind of dishonest 'I could have made if I had stuck to my original plan'. Yeah, right.

As it happened, it turned out to be a damn fine week anyway. I made a couple of beautiful swing trades in Apple. I bought the stock near $120, a price point that was a support on several occasions in June. I took some pro"ts near $125 before closing out the trade near $129 the next day. Exiting here was a no-brainer . . . the stock's 50-day average was just ahead. I decided to be a real smart ass and go short into the bargain. From there on, it was all downhill. I took some profits near $125 and again at $121 on Wednesday. I've kept a portion of the position open . . . if the $120 support level fails, further downside is likely. All in all, the two trades netted me almost 3,000.

After the miseries of the past fortnight, that was just what the doctor ordered.

The day trades have been numerous. It's the perfect environment for it . . . wild swings and volatility galore. Just look at the Dow. The last five trading days have seen swings from high to low of 308 points, 245 points, 130 points, 244 points and 232 points.

Of course, anyone who tries to trade with tight stops in a market like this is going to get torn to ribbons. I've opted to use wider initial stops and then bring my stop up to the break-even point as soon as possible. As a result, I've had a tonne of 'break-even' trades, many of which would have turned out to be nice winners if I'd been less strict in my stop placement. But who cares? The way I see it, such trades are essentially free bets. As soon as your stop is at break-even, you have nothing to lose.

I've also been a lot quicker to take profits. I opted for the 'let your profits run' approach last week and was punished for it. On Wednesday, for example, I shorted the Dow as it approached its high of the day.

After a swift 120 point drop, I closed the position. As it happened, I was premature. It proceeded to drop another 100 points. Looking at the intra-day chart now, I can see that I should have kept a portion of the position open and used a trailing stop to lock in pro"ts (that is, keep lowering your stop as the position goes in your favour) but I'm not going to beat myself up about that.

A 120 point drop ( 600 in profits) in less than an hour? I was bloody delighted.

Weirdly enough, I'm more long than short at the moment. My only short is Apple and even that is a very small position. I bought into the Dow near the close of day on Wednesday.

It wasn't easy doing so . . . it was falling over a cliff at the time . . . but the index was coming into its 200-day average for the first time in over a year so I almost felt obliged to give it a shot.

Ordinarily, this would be a no-brainer . . . a first visit to the 200-day average is almost invariably met by buying from long term bulls.

Unfortunately, these aren't normal times. There's an old saying that bull markets have no resistance and bear markets have no support.

That may turn out to be the case here. As I write, the future's markets are showing that the markets are set to open lower yet again (damn). My stop is below 12,700.

I bought Research in Motion (the Blackberry guys) on the same day.

The stock has been on a tear over the last few months but the recent market weakness has brought it down to its 50-day average for the first time in months.

I almost always buy strong stocks on their 'first visit', so to speak.

Besides that, the stock is going to have a 3:1 split over the next week (that is, each share will be priced at $66 rather than $198, or whatever the market value is at the time).

Stocks often appreciate in the runup to such splits (daft, but it happens). At the moment, I'm down a few hundred on this position. If it goes below $190, I'm out.

On a final note, traders should note that Dr. Brett Steenbarger has started posting his intra-day observations on his Twitter page at traderfeed. blogspot. com. The Doc is a smart cookie . . . check it out, people.

Weekly gain/loss: + /3,700
Overall balance: /53,100




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