We know more about the moon's surface than about the Arctic seabed. It's under ice, deep and dif"cult . . . and politically and legally uncertain.

We can now drill in 4km of ocean and maybe 7km under the sea-bed, totalling 11km from the surface. But it's not economically feasible to explore or develop the Arctic . . .though global warming will help.

Planting flags on the sea-bed is almost meaningless legally and practically. Russia is not a leader in deep sea exploration.

Land grabs are throwbacks to a less efficient past. Polar wealth should be distributed among humankind.

Yet it's naive to ignore power: the territorial water idea originated with the range of artillery. Russians have muscle, while Canadians and Danes do not.

Russians are dependent on hydrocarbon exports: the Soviet collapse was related to stagnating production and falling prices after 1987. Production is again up because of western techniques but there's little long-term investment: Russian entrepreneurs are more interested in western soccer clubs. International investors are being screwed by ma"a and the state.

Since 1991, Russia has lost its secure gas export pipeline access to western Europe, control over most of the Caspian and its in"uence in the oil-rich Middle East. That's important economically but also strategically.

Oil mixes money, power, science and sometimes blood.

Title disputes increase uncertainty and risks. That raises the cost of capital. The Caspian Sea experience shows how uncertainty slows development.

The rules are clear if you want to play in Russia itself: the state has direct control and brings minority foreign partners as needed.

Yet maximising control and increasing uncertainty undermine Russia's access to western technology and capital. Soviet production was slipping when Gorbachev restructured. Recent recovery was due to the 'western toolkit' . . . improving the productivity of former USSR reservoirs.

Technology and investment are now being frightened away.

Ireland and Europe are increasingly dependent on Russian gas through a long pipeline.

Authoritarian suppliers are often more reliable. Recent worries over Russian gas hinge on transit countries rather than the Siberian gas fields themselves. One solution is a Baltic gas pipeline bypassing troublesome intermediaries.

Liquefied natural gas is another option, more costly but flexible.

Russia appears to have Europe over a barrel, but the relationship is more evenly balanced than that:

Russia depends on international technology to manage declining fields and access to capital markets as well as projects in other parts of the world. In the short run, Russia has the advantage, but less so in the longer term.

The answer is a single economy from Connemara to the Urals.

10 August, Westin Hotel, Dublin Davy Stockbrokers run a polished presentation on NTR, the energetic toll operator reinventing itself as a renewable energy and garbage enterprise. It's great to see Irish companies thinking big and performing internationally. The trouble is that while the old business was profitable beyond Tom Roche's dreams, the new wind and biofuels activities are loss-making.

By the time stockbrokers market to private clients, the fruit is normally squeezed dry. The renewables buzz led to a flood of unsophisticated money, which increased the price of projects. Wind requires subsidy beyond the costly requirement of idle conventional power generators for when the wind calms. Invisible subsidies are practical but limited to utility-type returns. Politicians will not grant bonanza returns.

Profitable toll and garbage businesses were almost ignored . . .another bearish signal. No matter how dull, you don't neglect dynamic, attractive businesses.

NTR's share price storm has blown out. The energetic team will continue to spark, but for investors there's better value elsewhere.

13 August, Inis Mor, Aran Islands Connemara airport is maybe the last place on earth where you can appear 20 minutes before take-off, park, check-in with Aer Arann, board and depart on time. No security checks.

Arriving on Inis Mor, we walked off the plane and 300 metres to the Ard Einne guesthouse, named after the original Saint Enda, who is buried nearby. Californian visitors marvel that kids can frolic on the pristine beaches without concern for 'predators'.

Blistering sunshine makes the islands paradise. There are few cars and the only windmills visible are on distant Inis Meain.

Addressing locals as Gaeilge in Connemara often earns odd looks.

On Inis Mor locals respond naturally in a musical brogue . . . close enough to school Irish. They then check to confirm you've understood.

Eastern European shop-girls and cosmopolitan tourists are comfortably accommodated in a sea-going culture. No matter what the mainland neuroses, islanders are comfortable with their heritage.

Next day lashing rain turned paradise to hell, but the real warmth remains in the islanders' welcome.

Unable to take off, Aer Arann had us across the sea by ferry and at our car within 90 minutes.