So it is possible that Kenny will be the only party leader from 2007 still in place come the next general election. Nobody will mention 'experience' again in relation to the Mayo man.

But if he does manage to go the distance, Kenny will find a far different attitude to Fine Gael in the leadership ranks of the Labour Party. No matter which of the likely contenders succeeds Rabbitte, none will be as open to an electoral strategy which totally closes off one of the options for enacting Labour Party policy in government. Pat Rabbitte won the Labour leadership contest in 2002 mainly because his party's members saw a politician who they believed could translate his public popularity into electoral success. He was also strongly anti-Fianna Fail and favoured a preelection deal with Fine Gael. Rabbitte set himself two objectives . . . more Labour seats and government with Kenny's party. He was unsuccessful on both counts. In truth, he leaves his party in no worse or no better a position than where it was when he succeeded Ruairi Quinn five years ago.

The one significant difference, however, is that Fine Gael has made it out of the doldrums and, largely thanks to the Mullingar Accord, the seat gap between Labour and Fine Gael has widened once more. The opportunity for Labour after 2002 was to focus not on whether it ever went into government with Fianna Fail but rather on replacing Fine Gael as the second largest party in the state. Fine Gael was in such a mess after 2002 that Labour could have achieved a historic realignment in the Irish party system. Rabbitte chose to fight a different battle and that, perhaps, is why he did not lead his party into government. And government is where Labour badly needs to be if the party is to have relevance.

Rabbitte was correct last Thursday when he spoke about Labour being responsible for many of the positive developments in modern Irish life. In the 1980s, Labour led the way while others opposed contraception, law reform and the introduction of the right to remarry. In the 1990s, Labour pushed an agenda that produced a cultural shift in the relationship between the citizen and the state, with freedom of information legislation and strong ethical guidelines for politicians and the funding of politics. In government in the 1992-97 period, Labour was pivotal to the success of the nascent peace process and the birth of the economic boom.

Instead of building on that record, Labour got itself bogged down in a farcical debate about whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael would be a more acceptable coalition partner, as if most people can spot a significant ideological difference between the two. Rabbitte shoulders a big part of the blame for that debate. And so the problem for Labour is that for the last 10 years, the party has watched from the sidelines as others have implemented policy and spent the largesse in the public finances. Rabbitte's failure is that he never convinced the electorate that Labour in power could have brought about a different type of government to the right-leaning FF-PD coalition. He failed to convince the public that the money now available could be used to do more than the incremental improvements sponsored by Bertie Ahern's administrations. Those who say there is no place for a social democratic Labour Party in government need only look at the frustrations with the health and education systems, and the botched privatisations of Eircom and Aer Lingus. Rabbitte's failure is that he did not convince enough people that his party offered a real alternative.

The brain drain from the fourth estate continues apace

IN RECENT times, the main political parties have made a good job of diluting the ranks of political reporters with job offers as press officers and advisors. The Greens recently hired John Downing and Liam Reid from The Star and The Irish Times respectively.

The opportunity to plunder some more is still available, with Fianna Fail looking for a new press director. The Houses of the Oireachtas is also seeking a spin doctor with the job specification that the successful candidate convince enough people that the work of parliament continues despite the months on end that the Dail and Seanad remain silent.

MICHAEL Hopkinson is one of the most distinguished historians to have written about the 1916-22 period. The academic from the University of Sterling in Scotland has published two superb books on the War of Independence and the Civil War.

He's in Dublin on Thursday to deliver a lecture on 'Michael Collins and the North'.

Hopkinson's view will be interesting given the way the various parties have approached Collins. Fianna Fail has long been wary while in recent times Fine Gael has adopted the former IRA leader as one of its own. The lecture starts at 7.30pm in Dublin Castle.