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Rabbitte heirs: who's next in line?
Kevin Rafter Political Editor

     


BY THE middle of September, the members of the Labour Party are likely to receive a registered letter containing two ballot papers. Should there be more than one nomination for the now vacant positions, the party membership will . . . for only the second time . . . have to decide who fills the party's two senior leadership positions. The situation is very different from the previous occasion in 2002 when Ruairi Quinn stood down. Back then, Labour's strategy of not forming an electoral pact with another party had not delivered a place in government. There was a view the party would profit from an anti-Fianna Fail stance. Pat Rabbitte best represented that viewpoint and, with his high public profile and sharp parliamentary wit, he handsomely won the membership vote.

On this occasion, however, none of the potential candidates has a clear or distinct selling point. They are all serious policy-orientated politicians. They all have considerable political records with varying degrees of ministerial experience. But none of them has the required 'oomph' factor that should guarantee greater electoral success. Still, the Labour members will be selecting a new leader in the knowledge that the successful individual will be operating in a different political world. Politics after Bertie Ahern will be very different with Fianna Fail under a leader (no matter who that person is) who is far less popular and less likely to get away with being all things to all people, as Ahern has for over a decade now.

The logistics of the election will be confirmed next weekend. Of the three frontrunners, Joan Burton and Eamon Gilmore confirmed their interest in leading the party on Friday while Brendan Howlin was still considering his options.

Tommy Broughan has also indicated his interest and others who may consider contesting include Liz McManus and Roisin Shortall. However, with the deputy leader's position also available, these TDs may ultimately be more inclined to seek that position.

Brendan Howlin (51) Eamon Gilmore (52) Experience: One of the group of TDs first elected in the Labour victory in 1992. She lost her seat in Dublin West in 1997 but fought back to return to Dail Eireann in 2002. She showed remarkable grit in retaining her seat in the recent general election. She was a junior minister in the 1992-97 period with a decent profile after 1994 when she had responsibility for overseas development aid.

Strengths & weaknesses:

A dark horse, but there may be a constituency within the Labour membership inclined to back the Dublin West TD having twice rejected Howlin and worried that Gilmore would be 'Rabbittelite'. She was cut out of the inner loop in the Rabbitte leadership, so if there is a move back to 'Old Labour' Burton might be positioned to capitalise. She has also performed well against Brian Cowen in the Dail on finance questions which could be a sign of future battles.

There would be doubts, however, about her ability to unite a team within the party.

Experience: The Wexford politician is by far the most experienced of all the likely candidates. He was a member of Seanad Eireann from 1982-87 and was first elected to the Dail in 1987. A loyal supporter of Dick Spring, he was rewarded with appointment as health minister in the 1992-94 Fianna Fail/Labour coalition and as environment minister in the 1994-97 Fine Gael-led Rainbow government. He was Labour's deputy leader from 1997 to 2002.

Strengths & weaknesses: A committed politician with vast experience. He has a deep knowledge and understanding of the Labour Party. He was a reforming minister who introduced legislation governing the funding of political life. He has a liberal outlook, as evidenced in last year's statutory rape controversy. But he has twice been rejected for the Labour leadership position. His ambivalence between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail antagonises those in Labour who adopt a purist's view about the party's involvement in government. Has been a strong voter-getter in Wexford but, despite his longevity in political life, it is not clear how he would connect as a national leader. His recent appointment as Leas-Cheann Comhairle should make little difference to his candidacy as in reality it is a non-position with a very good salary.

Experience: First elected to Dail Eireann in 1989 as a Workers' Party TD.

With the split in the latter party in early 1992, he was a founder member of the new Democratic Left but led the move to merge DL with Labour in late 1998. The Dun Laoghaire TD was a junior minister in the 1994-97 Rainbow coalition and in recent times had held a number of senior frontbench positions.

Strengths & weaknesses:

Gilmore has been to the fore in the policy formation process within the Labour Party in recent years. He is a serious and thoughtful politician who is well liked across the party membership. Like Howlin, however, he unsuccessfully contested the leadership election in 2002. Of the likely candidates he is most closely associated with Rabbitte's electoral strategy and, while he would be the candidate favoured by Fine Gael, it is uncertain to what extent the leadership debate this time will concentrate on attitudes to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. It is also too early to say if the Labour membership would opt for a second figure from the old Democratic Left as party leader.




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