WHAT is the difference between anxiety and panic? Anxiety is the first time you can't do it a second time. Panic is the second time you can't do it the first time.
Friday's calamitous events in Ravenhill have now pushed Ireland into a situation where they can't resolve from very obvious shortcomings in their quest for World Cup glory. The times for cool calculated and calm response are over and essentially they need to press some sort of button which will kick-start some momentum and give them a clearer indication of how to go about a course of getting out of their group. But for the optimists amongst you the S-word (semi-finals) has just been taken off the menu. Ireland are not going to get there.
There were many aspects of the performance which require cold analysis. Let's deal with the one which is outside of the control of the Irish management and which brought the greatest element of controversy to Friday night's deliberations.
Years ago I was playing for Leinster against Llanelli in Stradey Park. On this occasion Leinster were comfortably the better side and late into the second half, the match being well won, we began to cruise. We hadn't taken into account Llanelli's 16th man. Derek Bevan was in charge that night and amazingly Llanelli crept back into the game until they were only three points behind deep in injury time. It could have been the 14th possibly the 15th minute of injury time.
Llanelli were awarded a scrum on our 22 right in front of the posts. The Llanelli scrum half fed the ball into the scrum and as we had done all night the Leinster pack steamrolled them off the ball and took our seventh or eighth heel against the head. The ball was at my feet when the scrum collapsed as it had been going backwards. The whistle blew and I got up to see to my 'amazement' that it was in fact Llanelli who had been awarded a penalty. No reason had been given. Their out-half knocked the ball between the sticks, the final whistle blew, a draw and a good night's work. Our coach Ned Thornton made a comment that it was lucky that the penalty had been awarded in the 15th minute of injury time, otherwise we would have been there all night and missed our flight.
Derek Bevan made a decision on Friday night as television match official which, in my opinion, was absolutely incorrect.
Trimble's pass which connected with O'Gara was forward and as Ireland's most important player on the night bore down on the chalk dust he lost control of the ball forward and regathered to touch down over the line. It was patently obvious that this was the case and nobody, least of all O'Gara, could tell it any other way. After four or five minutes, referee Nigel Owens raised his hand to award the try. The Italians were beside themselves with anger. The match ended minutes later and a tearful Allesandro Troncon had to be restrained by teammates. The oldest player on the pitch, a veteran of 96 test matches and a player I truly admire, was restrained by one of the youngest, Valerio Bernabo, a fresh-faced pup with no more than nine caps. Troncon was in tears and a number of his colleagues were in the same state. They had been robbed and it was very hard for them to remain calm and focused.
They departed the pitch and I lingered talking to people about what had happened. As I meandered towards the temporary stand I saw Derek Bevan strolling across the pitch from his mobile communication position. I haven't moved as quickly in a long time as I made to head him off at the pass. There was a stream of young boys and girls in green standing around some preventative railings.
Bevan chose to walk up this avenue; after all, they were all here to see him. I intercepted him half way up and jumped out in front of him. He recognised me immediately. We had both been familiar in the course of our careers but I wasn't coming to say hello to him.
"Derek, Neil Francis, Sunday Tribune, were you absolutely certain about your decision?"
He looked at me a little bit bewildered and then said "No question, absolutely certain." Then I asked him again: "It took you five minutes to make the decision, are you absolutely certain?" "Yes, absolutely certain."
No point in pursuing it any further, but I think that if the IRB retrospectively revisited some of the decisions made by TMOs, and there have been some very controversial decisions made over the years, this one would be top of the list.
I am as patriotic as anyone when it comes to Ireland winning games but there is a natural justice to the game of rugby and this was flagrantly abused on Friday night. The Italians, as their coach has stated, won the game and I agree with him.
However, it doesn't disguise the fact that Ireland are now in trouble. I played in three World Cups and some of the preparation matches were absolute disasters. We lost to Namibia in '91. We lost to Gloucester. We struggled against a Malone centenary celebration but we didn't have a full time preparation where we were in camp for two to three months and for some reason, unbeknownst to any of us, we managed to click every time, save ourselves and get out of the group and take our chances in the knock-out stages.
This side might not even get that far.
You sensed when you entered the stand in Ravenhill that there was a willing and appreciative crowd, ready to cheer and support anything, any half decent initiative coming from Ireland.
But so flat was their performance that you could hear a gnat fart as the game degenerated into a morass as Ireland lost their direction and shape from very early on.
How did they manage to get themselves in this position? It's fairly obvious and this is why the performance is so worrying. Italy bullied them up front.
At scrum time and in the lineout they did as they pleased.
Their French coach Berbizier works their scrum like the old French eights of the '80s and '90s. Their hooker Fabio Ongaro doesn't strike the ball. Instead the Italian eight walk the strike, ie. , the pack just moves a yard forward. This is a slight on opposing scrums because it's a risky gambit but they had absolute confidence that they could do this against an Ireland side. Martin Castrogiovanni scrummaged like a silverbacked gorilla and laid waste to Marcus Horan and the loose head side of the scrum, so much so that at various stages of the match you could see O'Callaghan and O'Connell splitting up. Whenever Italy got into trouble, particularly when Ireland were close to their line, they scrummed themselves out of trouble and they used the scrum as a platform for some unhindered kicking.
Likewise at line-out time and sometimes you have to make a judgement on who was the better second row, Bortolami or O'Connell. The Italians won their line-out ball with absolute simplicity using the highly impressive Sergio Parisse and getting their timing plays absolutely right. And even when Ireland got men into the air they never managed to put them under any pressure. When you have that sort of a platform you can do anything. So when Italy worked their ball, they got a fair degree of latitude on the deck and in the middle of the park.
Denis Leamy obviously still hasn't recovered from his shoulder injury and he was well short of the sort of standard we expect from him. The muscular Easterby was a long way off his optimum performance and even though Neil Best's work-rate and his savagery in the tackle were very noticeable, he still did not play in the role that the shirt which number he wears demands that he does. He played as a blind side playing on the open side and it cost Ireland dearly. In the first 50 minutes, Ireland turned the ball over on the ground in midfield primarily because there was nobody there to go in and secure it. These are basic simple things.
I said it last week, the omission of Keith Gleeson could cost us very dearly.
Ireland struggled against a side that could operate defensively at will. Italy were never stretched and they made their tackles with absolute surety and aggression. They slowed Ireland's ball down legally for so long that it lost its value and became kick-away ball.
So where is the problem, you ask yourself? Ireland played Argentina-Lite on Friday night.
This is how Argentina play. They have a bigger pack, a more formidable scrummage, a better controlled line-out. They have a better back row and they are more adept at slowing ball down and killing it entirely. The big difference is that they have a couple of Ferraris out back, Hernandez, Corletto, Contepomi, who can cut Ireland open, something which the Italians couldn't do with a surfeit of possession and a lot of good field position. De Marigny could only shoot into the air.
One of the most disquieting things from Eddie O'Sullivan's perspective was that he said:
"We won a lot of line-out ball but the maul didn't work, which is often a good platform for us.
We weren't getting it going."
Ireland's maul hasn't worked for a season or two now. The fact is that they haven't been able to maul properly or with effect for longer than that against serious sides.
Any time they tried to set up a maul, Italy repulsed them legally and without much effort.
Ireland even neglected on the stroke of half time to go for a share of the lead, opting for a line-out maul. The Italians simply licked their lips and got on with it.
What have they been doing all summer? If Ireland can't compete against a side that plays like Argentina but isn't as good as Argentina, what chance have we of getting out of the group?
Ireland are a different team without their strike runners.
With O'Driscoll, Wallace and Horgan out, they don't have the same sort of penetration. When or if these guys return, Ireland's volition will increase. Even D'Arcy looked like Ginger Rogers without Fred Astaire and he got bottled up in the end.
This side looks like a side that peaked in November '06 and they are now scrabbling to get back on track and they need all hands on board.
If that means Derek Bevan being our TMO in the game against Argentina, we'll take it.
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