Campbell, chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo), believes that while global credit market difficulties will again be the trigger for dramatic share price drops, energy supplies, not sub-prime mortgages, will be the underlying factor.

He believes that "there's no doubt that we are facing the peak of oil production after which it will decline to eventual exhaustion", something which will have a dramatic effect on the global economy.

And an increasing number of scientists and organisations are subscribing to his views . . . Aspo, which Campbell founded in 2000, now has member organisations in 30 countries and recently added China to its ranks.

According to Campbell, they all believe that the plentiful oil supplies that have underpinned the growth of the world economy for the past 150 years will soon start to decline, with severe consequences for businesses.

"To put it into perspective, around 300 million lived on this planet at the time of Christ and this only doubled in the following 17 centuries. Then we tapped this incredible source of energy: oil. Today's supply of oil is the equivalent of 22 billion slaves working 24 hours a day, " he said. "This led to the rapid expansion of transport, industry and trade and an explosion in population. It also . . . and people often forget about this . . . led to huge growth of financial capital because the banks were lending more than they had on deposit, confident that tomorrow's expansion would provide collateral for today's debt."

Campbell believes the reverse will happen within the next few decades: as world oil supply declines, economic expansion will give way to contraction and the world debt markets will "go bad".

"I picture a kind of volatile series of vicious circles of price shock, economic recession, recovery, then it hits the oil capacity limit again, price shock and so on, " he said. "These peaks and troughs are a stockbroker's dream. That's how they make their money: they sell short and sell long and all those things. But it isn't good for businesspeople and governments with any sort of long-term perspective".

Campbell's views appear to contradict figures from the most recent BP statistical review of energy, published earlier this summer, which showed that the world's known oil reserves are at near record figures, with around 40 years worth of known oil reserves left, up from just 29 years in 1980.

Indeed, three years ago, the Wall Street Journal featured Campbell on its front page, along with a headline stating that he was a 'doomsayer'. But he argues that he will be proved right, that the oil company figures are largely mythical and have more to do with changes in accounting standards than any new oil finds.

"The oil industry in earlier years underreported what they found because they were subject to stock exchange rules so they were extremely conservative. So their reserves grew over time simply because they reported more of what they had. Nothing much was added in reality."

According to Campbell, the only way companies can survive the impending oil supply crisis is to make gradual but fundamental changes to the way they do business. He said companies should look at eliminating all unnecessary transportation in particular.

"We're so wasteful. You only have to look at the roads outside: they are choked with traffic. There should be more rural buses, more rural community markets, that sort of thing. It would be the way forward. Today somebody growing potatoes in Cork ships them to the market and then they're shipped back again to the local supermarket.

That's ridiculous. There should be what's called the 100-mile diet where people live on what they've got in their neighbourhood."

Although this approach would involve a muzzling of Ireland's export capacity, Campbell believes this wouldn't have much of an effect on the economy as "it seems to be largely a financial construction" based on international financial services.

He is, however, concerned about whether this sector is as prepared as it could be to meet the challenge of peak oil, even though he has advised a number of major banks on the issue in recent years.

"Bankers belong to an informal club. They know each other, and their skill is to watch what the others are doing and they want to know about peak oil. UBS, JP Morgan and all kinds of major institutions have been in touch with me about this but they don't know exactly what to do about it, " he said. "The problem is that it is beyond their comprehension. This is unprecedented: the stone age didn't end for lack of stone; we got bronze and iron. We went for something better. This is the first time in history when a fundamental resource has started to decline without sight of something better. There are alternatives but they are not necessarily better or easier."

Campbell believes that, in order to assist companies to make the transition, the government should reform the tax system and introduce fuel allowances so that firms that use large quantities of energy are penalised.

"They should penalise energy consumption. At the moment, energy costs are taken as an operating cost deducted from taxable income. So if you are extremely wasteful with energy today, most of the cost of the waste is negated by the tax system and all the accountants can ever tell is that the money is spent, not how well it is spent, " he said.

In terms of fuel allowances, Campbell believes everyone should receive a basic ration of free fuel from the state and would then have to pay high prices for additional supplies.

He said the scheme could be gradually introduced over a number of years and that the proceeds raised by the government should go towards projects designed to help the economy adapt to falling oil supplies and find alternative sources of energy.

"You need a basic ration that could be adjusted for different needs a bit and then pump prices would be pretty bad but you would have your basic minimum. That would encourage you to have more efficient vehicles and move you in the right direction."

Despite his talk of taxes and rationing, however, Campbell remains optimistic about the potential for alternative sources of energy, such as wind energy, to take the place of oil, especially as the price of oil rises.

"There's been a lot of research in all directions and it hasn't been able to compete yet with good oil, cheap oil, but it will be soon and that will be a huge jump."

He believes, however, that businesses will have to embrace energy conservation anyway because of disadvantages inherent in some forms of renewable energy. As well as issues surrounding their capacity, Campbell believes the adoption of some technologies, particularly wind energy, will be limited by their visual impact.

He admitted that, although he has a solar panel at his home in Ballydehob, Co Cork, he is opposed to the widespread use of large wind farms.

"If you did what I did last winter and you drive from north Germany through Denmark, you can't see any hill without a wind farm. I would rather switch off the television and have some good old romantic countryside than have those damn things."

CV
COLIN CAMPBELL

Age: 76 Job: Founder and chairman, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo) Employment history: 1989-present: consulting work advising oil companies including Shell, Statoil and ExxonMobil; 1985-89: executive vice-president, Fina, Norway; 1980-84: exploration manager, Amoco, Norway; 1979: supervisor, new ventures, Amoco; 1978-79: exploration manager, Aran Energy, Dublin.
Family: married with two children and five grandchildren
Hobbies: sailing and photography