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THE MARKET - There's method to the madness of confusing house price "gures
June Edwards

 


HOUSE prices are up 2%, house prices are down 9%, the market is slowing, the market is about to take off again come September. . . Sick of talking about soft landings, crashes and mini-booms? Feeling confused?

Well join the gang! A staggering amount of reports launched over the last few weeks leaves buyers in a limbo of whether or not to purchase a home, and sellers reevaluating whether or not to move.

The most recent data from Permanent TSB and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) recorded a 2% fall in Dublin house prices during the first six months of the year, while Sherry FitzGerald claimed prices had fallen 5.2% during the same period, and the Daft report indicated some areas of Dublin had seen a 10% reduction.

"There have always been different reports on the state of the property market, and it's important to remember that different methodologies are used to compile those reports, which is probably why some of the information can seem confusing, " explains Marian Finnegan, economist with Sherry FitzGerald.

But timing and methodology are crucial when it comes to collecting data, says Finnegan.

"Banks and lending agencies base their figures on the average mortgage sum borrowed when the actual mortgage is drawn down, which means there's a time lag of about three months. The department of the environment also base their figures on mortgages so again there's often a time-lag of around six to nine months with their information.

"We use a different method to get an idea of what's happening. We have a basket of properties taken from all our offices nationwide, and each month we re-value the same properties again as if we were putting them on the market to sell.

This gives us a very clear picture from month to month of how prices are going, so we can see the difference in how we would have valued a particular house in Clontarf in June as compared to last January, " says Finnegan.

So does she think the market is going to pick up again in September or slump even further?

"We would have seen activity in the market fall off since last September, largely because of the rapid increases in interest rates.

There was to be another increase this September and a lot of buyers, particularly the first-timers were holding off until they could see the effect of this, but that may not happen now, and this might give buyers a confidence boost to go ahead and purchase.

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with the property market, but confidence has been low, and until stock levels pare off, we won't know what's happening with interest rates, " adds Finnegan.




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