WHO'S going to blink first in the Great Property Market Mexican Stand-off . . . buyers or sellers?
Buyers are understandably reluctant to get into the market now after prices that soared for years are now falling. They are turning up their noses like a gourmand who usually dines on haute cuisine and is offered roadkill in a truckstop cafe.
But sellers are still brazenly marking up the menu price for their house speciality: Lapin A La Michelin . . . rubber-flavoured rabbit.
Asking prices grew by 1.4% in the second quarter of the year, while actual selling prices started to go into freefall, according to the latest report from Daft. ie. That's because, until now, most sellers have been in no great hurry to offload their homes.
"The stand-off hasn't been breached, " says Michael Dowling, spokesman for the Independent Mortgage Advisers' Federation (IMAF). "Instead the level of activity has reduced dramatically.
"There is a gap between vendors and purchasers and we're not seeing that gap bridged. The only people making concessions are those who have to sell or are moving to a different location and can't afford two mortgages." Dowling said.
Stamp duty is still a huge issue, says Dowling. It may have been done away with for firsttime buyers, but anyone else still faces an astronomical bill, even for the proverbial dogbox in a dodgy part of Dublin.
The worst-hit are those who need more space for growing families and could have to fork out an utterly outrageous high five-figure sum in stamp duty alone for a more spacious home.
For example, even after a year of falling prices, you'd be lucky to get a decent four-bed suburban semi close to a city for much less than 750,000.
That's galling enough. But what's absolutely sickening is that the state takes 9% of that outrageous figure, , pocketing an eye-popping 67,500. Raise the price to over 1 million (which ain't that pricey these days) and it trousers over 100,000 in a one-off tax on a family that needs a bigger home near schools and employment. It's a tax on families that recoups 100 times more than the much-publicised 1,000 grant awarded for having a child in the first place.
Trader-uppers are the key to the property market. When they buy a bigger house, they fuel demand farther up the chain. In fact, they are the only people who can afford to go that far up the property ladder, if only because their smaller house has shot up in value over the years.
And when they sell, they generate opportunities for those trying to get onto the ladder.
But what if they decide not to make that move? They can afford to sit out the property downturn in their suburban semi and simply refuse to reduce their prices.The market will grind to a halt. And that is exactly what has happened, according to IMAF.
Dowling says small builders and DIY shops are doing a roaring trade as would-be trader-uppers add on an extra bedroom or conservatory instead.
The ones caught in the middle . . . though nobody is going to feel sorry for them . . . are estate agents, who may soon be seen queuing up alongside construction workers in the dole offices.
"Cash flow for the first seven months is relatively non-existent (for estate agents). You hear of some agents who only sold a single property in seven months, " Dowling notes.
Even the big chains are suffering, with one major firm reportedly bringing the hammer down on only one sale in three months. What's going to happen?
The greatest pressure to reduce prices and start the market moving again is on estate agents. Sources report that many agents are actively bringing down prices to stimulate demand and generate desperately needed cash flow . . .for themselves, that is, not their customers.
And if that is their agenda . . . do we really need them? When property prices were going up, they might have earned their considerable corn by driving them up faster. But in a deadquiet market where the only people desperate for a sale are estate agents, will they drive property values lower by getting otherwise complacent vendors to drop their asking prices? Will the "soft landing" continue, or will this factor contribute to a full-on crash by Christmas?
We'll find out over the next few weeks as the market reopens for business after the summer shutdown.
'2 IN 1' CREDIT CARDS: DEAL OR SCAM?
A '2 in 1' credit card is the latest initiative from Bank of Ireland. It functions as a normal card but also gives the option of paying for larger purchases over 12 months at 6.9% APR . . . less than half the going rate.
Is this a cynical marketing ploy . . . or a decent rate of interest for credit card users at last? It depends how you use it.
Around half of credit card users . . . the savvy half . . . pay off their bills every month. The others let their debt languish and attract mounting, and exorbitant, interest.
If you use this new deal to spread out payments you might otherwise pay off quickly, then you'll end up paying more interest than before, even if it is at a lower rate.
But BoI says the deal is designed for buying major items that would have been funded through a personal loan in the past. Plus you can fund only two purchases at any one time. The 6.9% APR is quite competitive in that case . . . while paying with plastic is handier than arranging a loan.
In the case of the other financial reprobates who let their credit card debt mount up, the new deal is a cracking one compared to the double-digit interest they would normally pay.
The minimum purchase is 500 and the total amount that can be transferred at any one time is limited to 80% of the total credit limit for that account. New customers can also avail of a 0% APR introductory rate for purchases for the first six months.
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