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Soon to be black and blue
Ciaran Cronin



BACK in March 1985, the board members of the IRB took a train journey in France. They travelled from Paris to Lyon on the newly operational TGV and, after lunch on the river Rhone, returned to the French capital to formally vote in favour of initiating a 'world rugby cup' as they termed it back then. The story goes that a number of board members were undecided about how they were going to vote when they left Paris that morning, but on their return, with the help of a few bottles of red no doubt, and maybe even the wow factor associated with the train they were sitting on, the deal was done and the World Cup had its conception.

It's fitting then, 20 years after the first tournament was co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand, that we're back in France, nipping from city to city on the train that so impressed those board members 22 years previous. The only pity heading into the tournament is the bastardisation of the whole thing by virtue of the handful of games being played in Cardiff and Edinburgh. Hopefully that kind of horse-trading for votes isn't allowed to happen by the IRB in the future.

It's interesting to recall that Ireland could have been one of the country-hopping teams had the domestic stadium crisis been sorted out back in 2004 or thereabouts. What a difference a home game against Argentina would have made to the challenge that faces Eddie O'Sullivan's side over the coming month. As it is, it will be a fair achievement if they even get out of their pool, an excellent one if they can do so as winners, with failure to win through to the knock-out stages at all an undoubted calamity.

This time last week you would have said that the coach's job would have been on the line if that last scenario played itself out, but it now appears O'Sullivan has a job for life, even for example, if Ireland lost to Namibia and Georgia during the tournament. Of course they won't lose to either of that pair . . .

AIB League champions Garryowen would have a decent crack at both of them given the chance . . . but those fixtures will be an important build-up to the games against France and Argentina. Particularly because Ireland's World Cup build-up has been far from impressive.

Even O'Sullivan loyalists around the country appear to be in a bit of a panic at his side's ineffectiveness against Scotland, and more worryingly, Italy. Rather than it being a stroke of luck that Ireland's weaker opponents are up first, we'd like to think that the management team saw the Namibian and Georgian games as part of a fourmatch (five, if you count Bayonne) build-up to their two more crucial fixtures.

There's been talk that Ireland need to post a score against these minnows but it's not as crucial as you might think. If say, France and Ireland finish top of Pool D with the same number of points, the winner of the fixture between the two sides will advance as pool winners, no matter what the overall points difference tally says. The only way points difference will matter is if three teams finish top with the same points. A French victory over Argentina on Friday night in Paris would almost certainly put paid to that eventuality.

So in both those early fixtures we need to see an Ireland side making less mistakes and playing at an increased tempo with a bit of fire in their bellies. It would also be nice to see, in the second game at least, Shane Horgan, Brian O'Driscoll and probably most crucially, David Wallace, get some decent game time. Ireland would be at a severe disadvantage if any of that trio headed into the French game without a proper hit-out first.

All of which brings us marching onwards to the Stade de France for what promises to be a special, if not pretty daunting, occasion for Ireland. France have looked terrific during their three warm-up games and with a capacity crowd behind them, it's quite difficult at this juncture to see how Ireland are going to beat them. The hosts not only appear to have such strength in depth . . . a back-row of Betsen, Martin and Harinordoquy or Dusautoir, Nyanga and Chabel . . . they also appear to have bulked up considerably during their three months in camp. Their offloading game, always a strength, appears a lot more cohesive than it was during the last Six Nations and if Ireland are going to get close, they'll need a phenomenal defensive effort. It's not an impossible fixture for Ireland to win, particularly if our mentally suspect Gallic cousins feel the pressure of the nation on their shoulders, but France still get the nod.

This, of course, would make the following weekend's game against Argentina all the more crucial. Looking at the tournament schedule, it may seem right now that the nine-day gap between the France and Argentina games is a boon, but a defeat to the hosts could mean that there's an awful lot more time for the pressure to build within the Irish camp. Back in 2003, in the week leading up the fixture between the two sides in Adelaide, the tension in and about the Irish squad was palpable and according to those on the inside, this was partly created by a hyper-active O'Sullivan transferring his own stresses to the rest of the squad. With a new contract in the bag and a fair few more quid in the bank, let's hope the Irish coach doesn't come close to self-implosion this time around.

The game itself is unlikely to be pretty and it's important that Ireland know what they're about going into it.

You feel that if they decide to take Argentina on in their own forward-dominated game, they will be beaten. If, however, they decide to mix things up a little and keep the Pumas guessing, they have more than enough talent out wide to beat the South Americans. The other important factor is that Ireland don't get caught up in the physical stuff that's bound to go on over the course of the game.

These two sides have a pretty acrimonious history but Paul O'Connell and his mates need to keep cool and take whatever sort of illegalities that might be thrown at them.

If they do, they'll be through the quarters.

That, however, is where the story's likely to end. As much as we'd like to think that Ireland can beat both France and Argentina and earn a quarter-final against Scotland or Italy, the likelihood is that they're going to lose one of those fixtures (the French one, as we've said) and face the All Blacks in Cardiff instead.

With all the respect we have for the players in this Irish squad, we can't see the All Blacks being beaten at this early stage, even if it's likely to be pretty close for an hour. The Kiwis just have too much in their vast armoury and when you consider that the only vaguely competitive game they're likely to play before the quarterfinal will be against Scotland, it's likely that they'll be a hell of a lot fresher than an Irish side fresh out of battles with both France and Argentina.

As for the rest of the tournament, we can't see anything bar an Australia versus New Zealand and South Africa against France set of semifinals. England may cause Australia trouble in their likely quarter-final meeting but the Wallabies should have enough know-how to scrape through. From there, France and South Africa looks like one hell of a game on paper and if the hosts are good enough to come through their pool as winners, then we fancy them to beat the Springboks.

New Zealand are likely to do a similar job on Australia, if a little more emphatically, which gives us the dream final, hosts against favourites.

From this far out it's nearon impossible to predict, but we still fancy the All Blacks to bring the Webb Ellis trophy back home, even if they will have an entire nation against them on World Cup Final day.

All that, of course, is with a lot of if, buts and maybes. Time for the speculation to end and the rugby to begin.

MAKING DREAMS COME TRUE: SIX STEPS TO THE SEMI-FINALS

6Brian O'Driscoll, Shane Horgan and David Wallace have to be match-fit, particularly for the last two pool games, if Ireland are going to have any impact on the competition. They could probably survive without Horgan if all came to all but the presence of the other two is absolutely essential to Ireland's progression.

5While Ireland have undoubtedly varied their game to a greater degree over the past 18 months, they don't need their coach to go back into his shell at the World Cup. The players need to be granted licence to express themselves if a spot in the last four of the World Cup is to be achieved.

4Nobody gets anywhere in this competition without a bit of luck. Ireland not only need to get the odd dodgy call on the pitch, or the bounce of the ball here or there, they also need to stay injury-free for the duration of the tournament.

3France have looked excellent in their warm-up games over the past few weeks but they're well capable of getting a dose of the jitters. The scrutiny surrounding them is going to be intense, and if ever a nation couldn't cope with pressure, it's the French. If it all becomes too much for them, an on-form Ireland team can pick up the pieces and win the pool game in Paris.

2Argentina are a fine rugby team but they do tend to overload the aggression when they get a bit excited. There are rivers of bad blood between Ireland and the Pumas but if Eddie O'Sullivan's side can keep their cool, and if they're looked after properly by the referee, the Argentineans could selfcombust, leaving Ireland in prime position to top Pool D.

1If Ireland beat France and Argentina, they'll deservedly earn a quarter-final against either Scotland or Italy. They routinely beat these sides for fun in the Six Nations and there's no reason why they can't do it again in France. If they manage that they'll be in dreamland, with a shot at the final still in store.




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