THE Taoiseach irritated the sensitivities of certain economists and commentators earlier this year when he suggested that some of them were less than patriotic in their constant talking down of the economy and the housing market.
There was a certain validity in this argument as we have been treated to a constant barrage of negativity from certain quarters for over 12 years now.
The front page of Business & Finance magazine in June 1995 posed the question:
'Housing . . . can the boom last?' This is pretty symptomatic of what we have been served up continuously since then.
On the night of 11 September 2001, an RTE economic correspondent on the nine o'clock news advised the nation to desist from any property purchase for at least 12 months as the bottom could well fall out of the market. Prices actually rose by 14% the following year.
The same occurred when residential prices dropped in 2000 by a few percent and dire predictions were again put out.
One well-known economist suggested that values would fall by 20% the following year.
They actually rose by close to that amount, to the disappointment of aspiring homeowners who accepted the advice, held back from the market and then ended up paying much more than could have.
One could ignore the unfounded negativity except for the fact that it is damaging consumer confidence at home and international investor confidence abroad.
Certain programmes put out on the national airwaves, on television and radio, and articles in newspapers have caused many international investors to flee the Irish economy which, in the long run, will cost us jobs and capital investment. We may physically be living on an island but, with modern communication, unbalanced and inaccurate reports about Ireland are believed and acted upon internationally.
The months ahead are likely to show month-on-month price changes fluctuating between positive and negative while yearon-year growth rates may enter negative territory. This is likely to be only a temporary. There will be instances in both the new and second-hand markets where prices will have to be adjusted downwards to reflect the amount by which they were overstated in the first place. This can be painful on a temporary basis for some but it actually demonstrates the integrity and stability of the more mature market that is now in place. Property is by its very nature a medium- to long-term buy.
What is happening right now in the Irish residential market is exactly what is desirable at this time. The current market environment is far more orderly. Sellers are not flooding the market. Asking prices have come back to more realistic levels while rental values are rising steadily, reflecting the underlying demand for somewhere to live that has been driving the property market forward during the past decade.
As a barometer of renewed activity in the market, Hooke & MacDonald has experienced an acceleration in enquiries for new homes, from both first-time buyers and investors, over recent weeks. There has been a 37% increase in enquiries recorded by the company over the past four weeks. Telephone enquiries have risen from 815 four weeks ago, to 983 the following week to 1,019 the week after and 1,087 last week, while email enquiries have risen from 79 to 87, 108 and 132 in the corresponding weeks, making a total of 4,310 enquiries for new homes in that period.
Despite the groundless querying of the significantly increased activity among aspiring home-buyers by the editor of Business & Financemagazine in the Sunday Tribune last week, these figures are indisputable and do not even include personal callers to the company's offices, or to show-apartments.
To have over 4,000 enquiries from prospective buyers to one company alone in a four-week period may not be good news for the pessimists in our society but it represents a considerable vote of confidence by home-buyers coming into the autumn sales season who are expressing a desire to purchase rather than rent.
Ken MacDonald is managing director of Hooke & MacDonald estate agents
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