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The castle on his back, the Dail at his feet
Shane Coleman



ALL eyes were last week focused on Bertie Ahern and his highly anticipated appearance at Dublin Castle. But notwithstanding all the pressure he is under at the planning tribunal, it is not the Taoiseach who faces the biggest political challenges over the coming months, but his rival leaders across the floor of the Dail, Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore.

Whatever happens down in Dublin Castle, Bertie Ahern can console himself with the knowledge that the voters gave their verdict last May.

And it is Ahern's very source of consolation that is the opposition leaders' biggest bugbear. The opposition benches are not a nice place to be, so the prospect of facing a third successive term staring across at Fianna Fail ministers must be hugely daunting for veteran Fine Gael and Labour TDs as they shape up for the new Dail term.

A Fine Gael TD elected for the first time in 1987 would have spent over 17 of his 20 years in national politics in opposition and, by the time of the next general election, that could be 22 years out of 25. It must also be galling for Labour deputies of the callibre of Ruairi Quinn, Brendan Howlin, Pat Rabbitte and Joan Burton that they have now been denied access to ministerial office for up to 15 years.

No question, Kenny and Gilmore face a huge challenge in lifting their troops for yet another long slog ahead.

Kenny, at least, can point to real progress with the addition of almost 20 new TDs. But the burgeoning parliamentary party will bring its own challenges. Fine Gael for the past five years were more united than in any period for a generation as a kind of a Blitz spirit took hold after the meltdown of 2002. But there are already signs, admittedly tentative ones, that there will be a fair bit more jostling for position, particularly among the ambitious new deputies, and that could cause more than a few headaches for Kenny.

He compared himself to Eddie O'Sullivan on Morning Ireland last week when asked about the difficulty in picking his new front bench, but the analogy is completely misplaced. Eddie's first 15 virtually picks itself and the harsh reality is that, for all the strides Fine Gael has made over the past five years, it has yet to unearth a Brian O'Driscoll, a Paul O'Connell or a Gordon D'Arcy.

Kenny is no fool and he will know that Fine Gael's front bench has to be beefed up. That will involve stepping on some toes, but don't doubt for a second that Kenny, nice guy though he is, has the ruthlessness to do what has to be done.

But does he still have the hunger? It should be stressed that there is no obvious evidence that he doesn't and Kenny certainly doesn't have a problem with energy levels (like Bertie Ahern, he seems to be able to get by on four hours sleep and still bound around like the Duracell bunny the next morning).

However, he wouldn't be human if he wasn't exactly thrilled at the prospect of another four or five years on the 'leader of the opposition' treadmill. Time will tell if he still has the same appetite.

Gilmore doesn't lack hunger or ability, but he has set himself as a hostage to fortune with his target of close to 30 seats for Labour at the next general election.

History tells us Labour wins that number of seats in perhaps one in 30 general elections. Throw into the mix the fact almost half of its 20 TDs will be 65 or over come the next general election, which suggests there will be at least a couple of retirements, and you get an idea of the size of the task Gilmore has set himself.

History also tells us that when Fine Gael and Labour do succeed in unseating Fianna Fail, it is usually because they are willing to be both bold and brave. Back in 1973, the two parties declined to get involved in auction politics when FF made its big announcement on domestic rates just days away from polling. And, in the early 1980s, FG's position on the North and on social issues . . . which did not meet with universal approval among voters . . . helped differentiate it from FF and attract new voters.

Admittedly, that is much more difficult to achieve today, with politics being very much rooted in the centre. But the two parties will certainly need to have a cutting edge. Fine Gael had the right idea in the first couple of years of the last Dail when it took bold stances on issues such as benchmarking. But, despite all the rhetoric about 'contracts' with the Irish people, it became much more cautious closer to election time.

One of the abiding images of the general election campaign was Enda Kenny's speech to the nurses' conference. He told them exactly what they wanted to hear and got a great response. But the suspicion is, that while Brian Lenihan had to endure being heckled at the same conference, his tougher line went down much better with the wider voting audience. It was hard not to be reminded of that in recent weeks as both Kenny and Gilmore shamelessly played the Shannon Airport card.

Since it abandoned its opposition to coalition government in 1989, Fianna Fail has been returned to power after every general election. That surely suggests it's going to take something a little different from the traditional opportunistic opposition strategy for Fine Gael and Labour to get into government.

Settling on what the new strategy should be, however, is not going to be easy. For all his troubles down at Dublin Castle, there is still no way Bertie Ahern would swap places with either Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore.




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