Last Wednesday our soccer side went to Prague to see if they could suspend reality for another couple of weeks. A win against the Czechs would put us in the driving seat, sure beat the Germans at home, beat Cyprus (who beat us 5-2 in Nicosia) and then travel over to Cardiff, trounce the taffies (who beat Slovakia 5-2) and then it's Mardi Gras.

All this based on the back of a record of not having beaten a meaningful team away from home in 20 years. Just go out and beat the Czechs and it's Alakazam. Dreamers, the lot of them. The country looks now to the rugby side for some respite. A champion team with businessend pedigree, all we have to do is go to Paris and beat France and it's Mardi Gras time.

Alright, we've only won there once since 1972 but we can do it. It is plausible. It is realistic. We're operating on a different plane to those round ball drongo dreamers.

Aren't we. . . ?

I don't mean to be the hard-hearted harbinger of hard times, but we have very little chance of beating the French in Paris.

I know this because I looked back at history and it told me all I needed to know. Thrashings in the Six Nations are one thing. We have played 17 times since 1972. We have lost 16 times, most of them by thrashings.

That should tell you something. What is a little bit unsettling is that in a World Cup competition, particularly this one, thrashings count for something more than low self esteem and bad form after the match until the first pints arrive. Thrashings constitute bonus points.

French score always shown first . . .

2006 43-31, 2004 35-17, 2002 44-5, 2000 2527, 1998 18-16, 1996 45-10, 1994 35-15, 1992 2006 43-31, 2004 35-17, 2002 44-5, 2000 2527, 1998 18-16, 1996 45-10, 1994 35-15, 1992 2006 43-31, 2004 35-17, 2002 44-5, 2000 2527, 1998 18-16, 1996 45-10, 1994 35-15, 1992 2006 43-31, 2004 35-17, 2002 44-5, 2000 2527, 1998 18-16, 1996 45-10, 1994 35-15, 1992 44-12, 1990 31-12, 1988 25-6, 1986 29-9

Only twice in 20 years did France fail to get a bonus point for scoring four tries. I happened to be lolling around the pitch at the time that they scored quite a few. We did actually try very hard to stem the tide but quite often when the match is won is the time when the French get giddy and they splice and dice in a way that Zorro couldn't quite match.

Here is what I see happening with this group. After Ireland's win last night, I expect Namibia to be blitzed in Toulouse today by France. Next Friday, the French will not only beat us, but score a bonus point in Paris while the Argies dispose of Namibia also with a bonus point.

Ireland will eventually get their challenge off the ground in the sense that I expect them to be competitive, but they need France to underperform again. I can't see Ireland firing on all cylinders just yet.

Neither can I see France freezing in their own competition again. Certainly at this stage of the proceedings.

Laporte has some selection issues. He picked Heymans at full-back and Skrela at half-back for a reason. Poitrenaud and Michalak are fragile mentally and their great rugby skills decompose when they come under pressure. They make mistakes when their team need them to choose the right course of action. Heymans and Skrela are lesser players but they will not make mistakes. Laporte picked them because they would not self-destruct. Both of his choices played like Julian Clary against Argentina. Now he has to think again. The Toulouse players start today in their own home town. They know they are rejects. You know what's going to happen.

They will cut loose. They are the difference between a win and a bonus point. Laporte doesn't want them but he will have to pick them. France's pack will change too. They were poor against the Argies, everywhere except the scrum which is bad news for Ireland. Can their sluggishness be down to lack of desire or were they over-trained again? They were slow to close down space.

They were slow to support the ball carrier and they vacillated over clearing out the Argies on the ground. Frankly, I've seen glaciers move quicker. They don't normally do tea breaks during a test match in Paris. They will have more Toulouse players in the side, their back row was poor in the opener.

Nyanga and Dusatoir could come in. France will have their leaders, place kickers and strike men in place and I fancy that there will be another entry into the citing, biting and fighting column before the day is over.

I just have a paralysing suspicion that, in a thrice, France will wrest their competition back next Friday.

Even if Ireland get into the game quickly and play something near the type of game that we expect from them, I think there'll be nothing that Ireland can do to stop them. The final table should look something like this:

PWLBPPts FRANCE 431416 ARGENTINA 431315 IRELAND 431214 We rate ambition by what is finished, not by what is attempted. By the time this group have finished, Ireland's attempts will have come too late and they can do France an enormous favour by beating Argentina but by not enough points for Ireland to qualify. History tells us that Ireland won't score four tries against Argentina and also that the points differential will only be separated by a microscope.