SOMEWHERE in between the FAI coming out and standing by their manager and the calls for Steve Staunton's head, there is room for a bit of cold logic. And here it is: the gamble hasn't worked.
Stating on the one hand that the search was on for a "world-class" manager, and then plucking someone from coaching obscurity was a massive gamble by John Delaney and the FAI. Staunton had a magnificent career, he was a great captain and he was always going to have the respect of the players when he walked into the job, but could he manage an international side?
No one really had a clue.
I felt it was wrong to judge him definitively in the aftermath of the humiliation in Cyprus. The time to offer an analysis would come when the group was done and dusted. But with three games remaining, and with no realistic chance of qualification for next year's European Championship finals, that time has come.
I know Mick McCarthy had his share of disappointments before the team qualified for a major tournament, but I always felt he was learning on the job. If there were mistakes, at least we were still in the shake-up at the very end of qualifying campaigns.
Not like the situation now where a big game against Germany at Croke Park is suddenly no longer a big game, and where the opportunity of taking on Wales at a packed Millennium Stadium with qualification on the line has been squandered. Three games to go and we're out.
In contrast to McCarthy, I'm not convinced that Staunton is learning on the job. Think back to what happened in Cyprus, to the desperately poor performance in San Marino, and more recently to team selections that simply defied belief. Steve is a former teammate of mine, he is a good guy and I wanted him to succeed but, as much as it pains me to write this, I can't give him my backing now.
I am taking into consideration the fact that a number of younger players have been blooded during the campaign, but I never saw us having to play the poor mouth in this group. Even if Germany were always going to be in a different league, with the Czech Republic a fading force, and with no great threat from Slovakia, Wales or Cyprus, the group had real possibilities.
Slovakia were there for the taking . . .that was confirmed by an attack-minded Wales side on Wednesday . . . and there was enough evidence from events in Prague that we were well capable of staying in the race by getting four points from the two games.
But the team selections just weren't logical. I didn't understand how the manager could say after the Slovakia game that the players didn't pass the ball well enough when Andy Reid, the best passer among his midfielders, was sitting on the bench.
And, for my money, Aiden McGeady should not have started in either game.
McGeady is talented, but there has not yet been any evidence for Celtic or for Ireland that he has the right sort of temperament to make a meaningful contribution when the stakes are really high.
Also, with Steve Finnan out, it wasn't necessary to play Stephen Kelly at leftback. Kevin Kilbane has been filling in there for Wigan lately and that selection would have freed the left-wing position for Stephen Hunt. Hunt's exclusion was inexplicable. He impressed when introduced as a sub in the March wins against Wales and Slovakia and played very well in the recent friendlies. More than anything, there is his form for Reading this season and last, which has been as good as any Irish player in England. Getting his opportunity the way he did, and with the crowd on his back, Hunt was probably too pumped up but, before he was sent off, there was some optimism that Ireland were going to get something from the game.
The problem for Staunton is that because of John O'Shea's injury he was seen to stumble on a better line-up. What was patently obvious to many observers only fell into place by chance.
In different ways, the campaign has brought the likes of Stephen Ireland, Kevin Doyle, Paul McShane and Hunt to the fore. Add in the proven quality of Damien Duff, Robbie Keane, Steve Finnan and Shay Given, as well as the very impressive progress made by Richard Dunne, and there are reasons to believe that qualification for the World Cup finals in 2010 is well within the team's compass.
The question for the FAI is whether Staunton should be entrusted with the job of guiding these players through that campaign.
Delaney is the man who hires and fires and, since he travels with the squad, he should see what is going on behind the scenes to enable him to guage the spirit, atmosphere and leadership of Staunton and his staff. With this insight Delaney is able to make a calculated call. He has stated that becoming third seeds is a sign of progress, but if things go wrong in the last three games against Germany, Cyprus and Wales . . . ie we only yield three points . . . it might not be that we actually finish third in the group.
Though qualification is no longer at stake, the credibility of the manager and chief executive is. If we only get three points from those games, the pressure from the public could become unbearable.
The FAI under this administration are introducing admirable projects such as greater development for elite soccer players at younger ages and this will undoubtedly bear fruit as years pass, but the main responsibility is to give Ireland's soccer and its followers the best chance of competing in the final stages of World Cups and European Championships.
I cannot share Delaney's judgement that Staunton is the man to bring this about.
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