Autumn 2008 The tribunal odour just won't go away. Now is the last possible time for a heave against Ahern, with local and European elections scheduled for June 2009. Election candidates are wary of his involvement in the campaign, and many talk about the fillip at the polls that a new leader would provide.

Government ministers continue to insist on business as usual, but several party TDs call on Ahern to name his exit date. If Ahern is weakened politically by this time next year, he may decide to bow out voluntarily before the end of 2008, rather than face a messy heave and also ahead of a potentially damning tribunal report. But if he gets past autumn 2008, he will more than likely lead Fianna Fail into the local and European elections in 2009.

Autumn 2009 Poor election results for Fianna Fail in the June contest and Ahern will be departing before the Dail summer recess ends in late September. If he's unwilling to resign, talk of a motion of no confidence will be heard. Many backbench TDs will openly talk about the leadership issue while some ministers nervous about their future job prospects will start to take up positions in advance of a new regime. The timing would probably suit Brian Cowen but Micheal Martin and Dermot Ahern will not make the succession a coronation. Mary Hanafin and Noel Dempsey will refuse to dismiss their own leadership ambitions An alternative scenario for 2009 is that Fianna Fail has a decent day at the polls . . . and the party's local election results in 2004 were so poor that it's conceivable Fianna Fail could even claw back some gains.

Ahern then dresses up the outcome as an endorsement of his position as well as a vindication of his truthfulness at the tribunal, and he says he will remain in office for some time yet.

He might even convince Brian Cowen to accept the job of European Commissioner and announce a reversal of his retirement plans.

A fourth term is in prospect, triumphant Fianna Fail TDs proclaim, as they dismiss the tribunal as yesterday's news.

2010-11 Ahern has made it past the mid-term mark.

The tribunal finally reports and, amid a welter of criticism, the Drumcondra man steps down. Alternatively, he survives the tribunal report but in his own parliamentary party attention is now focused on the next general election. Fianna Fail TDs are impatient to see speculation about the leadership issue brought to an end. Ahern announces he will depart either in late 2010 or early 2011.