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Back in power, but the next slip up can't be too far away
Shane Coleman Political Correspondent



THIS week marks the resumption of normal political service as the Dail returns after its long summer hibernation. Fianna Fail has had the summer to bask in the glory of its third election victory in a row, but the party will need to be back in combative form. Fine Gael, smarting slightly after just coming up short in the election, is determined to prove that it can usurp Fianna Fail as the biggest political party in the Dail in five years' time, and it boasts a radically different and hungry-looking front bench.

Labour, meanwhile, has a new leader at the helm who will be determined to make his mark. Expect the two parties to target the Greens . . . hell hath no fury like a potential coalition partner scorned . . . with the party's every compromise seized on.

Fianna Fail will be keen to avoid the mistakes of five years ago, when it never got out of first gear after its election win.

But if it wants to maintain its general election poll ratings, it will need to negotiate some potentially choppy waters in the months ahead. Here are eight potential banana skins on which the government might just slip over the coming months.

1) It's the economy, stupid. Whether you are bullish or bearish about the Irish economy, one thing is clear: the government will have less money to splash over the next couple of years. There is no hope of delivering on all the pre-election promises of tax cuts and spending increases . . . if anything a bit of belt-tightening will be called for.

That means no more giveaway budgets and much closer analysis of costs across the board, with spending increases well down in the single digits. At least in the short term, the days of the government being able to buy its way out of trouble are at an end. Expect plenty of tensions come estimates and budget time.

Potential rumpus rating: 7/10

2) Bertie (out the) gate?

The planning tribunal continues to hang over Bertie Ahern like a latter-day sword of Damocles. Ahern's version of events has more holes than a sieve and the signs are that the opposition, freed of electoral concerns, are going to finally take off the gloves.

But whatever about too little, it will certainly be too late.

The feeling remains that the electorate largely made up its mind on this last September and again in May and has pretty much switched off, particularly given how complicated the issues are down at Dublin Castle. The tribunal has yet to produce a smoking gun and the Greens are not interested in it as an issue. It may be a problem for Ahern and the government when the tribunal finally reports, but not in the short to medium term.

Potential rumpus rating: 3/10 There'll be lots of huffing and puffing, but Bertie's house won't be blown down.

3) Into the mid-west The Shannon airport/ Heathrow issue has been lower profile of late, but it is likely to dominate Dail proceedings this week. The opposition will be looking to make life difficult for the government by shamelessly playing the Shannon card, although their calls for the government to vote against Aer Lingus management may lack credibility. The government is certainly not going to go against Aer Lingus and there will be no rowing back on the airline's decision, regardless of what the opposition do and say.

Ultimately, the whole issue hinges on the ability of the Shannon Airport Authority/government to get either an alternative carrier to service Shannon-Heathrow or another major European hub airport. If that happens, it's a dead issue . . . but if it doesn'tf Potential rumpus rating: 1/10 or 9/10, depending on the success in wooing an alternative carrier.

4) Stop the lights?

The ESB unions backed off from a confrontation with the government in the run-up to the election, but with the unions set to ballot on industrial action, this issue hasn't gone away.

The unions are opposed to the ESB board's decision to divest 1,300 megawatts of its existing power plants as part of a deal with the Commission for Energy Regulation, whereby it would reduce its market share in the power generation market. The unions are particularly opposed to this in the context of the decision to transfer ownership of the national grid from the ESB to another state company. This could prove very, very awkward for new energy minister Eamon Ryan.

Potential rumpus rating: 9/10

5) Angola heights When is health not an issue for the government of the day? And, if anything, the next few months look even more strewn with landmines than usual. The consultants' talks are still far from resolved and the unions are poised for confrontation over cutbacks in the health services by the HSE. With the worst months for A&E still ahead, we might be headed for another winter of discontent in the health services.

Potential rumpus rating: 9/10

6) Burn, baby, burn The incineration issue won't be causing too many sleepless nights for Fianna Fail ministers, but it is a tricky issue for environment minister John Gormley.

The Green Party leader has taken to his position like a duck to water and he has signalled a significant shift away from incineration as a waste management strategy, but the big question is what will happen in his own constituency at Poolbeg?

Potential rumpus rating: 5/10

7) Constitutional wrongs?

The European Union constitution is once again looming large on the horizon. A referendum won't just cause problems for the Green Party, who seem to be finally shifting their position on Europe, but also for the government as a whole.

Any referendum is going to be very difficult to win. A repeat of the first Nice referendum can certainly not be ruled out.

Potential rumpus rating: 7/10

8) The 'X' factor One guarantee is that at some point in the next Dail term, the government will run into a left hook that nobody saw coming (just think of events such as the 'X case'; the Sheedy Affair, the nursing homes issue, Mr A, etc etc).

And another guarantee is that it will cause an almighty stink.

How the government deals with this issue will go a long way towards dictating its opinion-poll ratings.

Potential rumpus rating: 10/10




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