Is unemployment back on the agenda? Are we returning to the bad old days of the 1980s when the country was an economic basketcase? Or, alternatively, are we worrying needlessly given that the 'economic fundamentals' remain strong? Should we be optimistic, or 'bullish', to use the parlance of the markets? Or is it now time to be pessimistic, or 'bearish'?

Dan McLaughlin Group chief economist at Bank of Ireland DAN McLaughlin is scathing about what he describes as the "Apocalypse Now stuff" and "certain people flagging the end of the Celtic Tiger", arguing that the negative analysis lacks "perspective, context and rigour". Listing positive figures for economic growth, retail sales ("we're in the middle of a highstreet boom"), housing construction, employment, wages and exports in the first half of the year, he says: "I find it hard to find a particularly soft macro economic number. So why is there this perception that things could get worse?"

McLaughlin says he doesn't disagree with the view that new housing starts will slow, but says with interest rates at the top of their cycle and likely to come down if the world economy continues to stutter, that will give a lift to the economy in 2009. Asked about suggestions the economy could completely stall or even contract next year, he says the last time that happened was in 1983 when interest rates were 15-16%.

He also notes that while the number of houses built will drop in 2008, the latest inflation data shows private sector rents growing by 12%, suggesting demand for housing is "still pretty strong". "The marginal buyer is now a renter because of higher rates, " he adds.

"No other country in western Europe has ever seen its population grow by 10% in five years. Obviously we need more resources to house those people. The building of 88,000 houses [in a year] wasn't some government programme. It happened because the demand was there."

On jobs, McLaughlin says the amount of publicity given to job loss announcements is amazing. Every month for the last 10 years, there has been an average of 2,000 redundancies and that is simply an economic reality, he says. He highlights recent gloom over 200 voluntary redundancies at Intel, pointing out that there are 2.1 million people working in the economy. The majority of jobs are created in the services sector, yet the impression is given that everything is dependent on a few multinationals, he says.

McLaughlin believes what is currently happening is very similar to 2002/2003, when the economy slowed down and there were similar predictions of apocalypse. Then interest rates came down and the economy took off again.

"If you buy a computer or mobile phone, it has a default setting. It's the same with an economy. For the last six years, the Irish economy's average trend rate of growth has been 5.5%. I'd say to people, in the medium term, that's the most likely sceN1 nario. Yes, there will be periods of growth below that. . . The world won't end in 2008 if the economy does grow at a lower rate."

McLaughlin accepts a more pronounced slowdown in the US economy would have a "big knockon effect" on Ireland but says: "If the economy is going to grow at a weaker pace, are you saying that's going to be permanent? If it's just a short-term thing, so what? If you're saying it'll be more medium term, why? What will change? Productivity growth or labour force growth? If you can argue that case, fine. But that's how you have to look at it. You can't say we're going to end up like [country] A or B."

Marc Coleman Economics editor at Newstalk and author of a book on the Irish economy, The Best is Yet to Come, to be published later this year Those talking down the Irish economy "don't understand it, " Coleman says, adding that his bullish outlook is justified by the fundamentals.

"Recent population growth aside, Ireland is still ridiculously underpopulated compared to other European countries and its own past. If we had the population density of Denmark, hardly an overcrowded country, we'd have nine million people in the Republic. If we had the population levels prevailing here in 1841, we'd have 6.5 million. We only have 4.2 million."

A correction aside, the worst thing that can happen to the housing market, he says, is that the rises of the past two years are reversed. Ireland, he believes, is only beginning a recovery from a stunted past and the recovery will last decades. "In the past three years, loose lending pushed the economy too far down the property road. Correcting that will bring GDP growth to between 2% and 3% for the next four years. That's still pretty good by EU standards."

Warning against doom-mongering, Coleman cautions: "Northern Rock rode out the recent financial storm.

But it needlessly came a cropper when its depositors lost something vital:

confidence. Some jobs have to be lost temporarily over the next two years.

But unemployment should rise no higher than 6%. That's still good by EU standards. Self-fulfilling . . . and totally needless . . .

disaster could happen if the barrage of economic horror stories on TV continue."

Coleman believes economists have a responsibility to be accurate and non-sensationalist. However, he believes the government and the public sector do have something to fear from the likely slowdown in economic growth over the next couple of years. With the exception of the Greens, Coleman points out that all political parties based their election promises on the unrealistic assumption that nominal economic growth would average 7% over the next five years. "It's going to be half that and the impact on tax revenues is going to send the government's promises on tax and spending down the Swanee. The opposition have no advantage here because they made the same assumption."

On the public sector, he says: "This group took a share of recent growth that was totally unjustified by its contribution and totally disproportionate. With demand weakening, the government knows the taxpayers aren't going to accept tax hikes anymore. Instead, it's going to demand that something is done about an obese and underproductive public sector."

David McWilliams Broadcaster and author of The Generation Game McWilliams describes himself as a long-term 'bull', but given his book and the accompanying RTE series, it's no surprise he's 'bearish' short-term about the "serious straws in the wind". Almost onequarter of our national income (GDP) is generated by construction compared to an EU average of 11%, he says, adding: "The tragedy of the boom is that we are blowing it on the false god of property." Likening the boom to the end of a beer keg, McWilliams says there is "loads of froth but very little beer".

He predicts house prices will fall progressively.

"It's not the pinnacle of economic achievement to have to pay five times' salary for a shoebox in Mullingar. . . The bulls say that is the barometer of economic success. But it's the progressive impoverishment of young people. The housing market has to fall for the likes of Intel to grow, not cut, their employment here, " he says, reasoning that soaring house prices feed into inflation, driving wages upwards, thus affecting Irish competitiveness.

"It's an unsustainable cycle. Every time the house market rises by 10%, job opportunities fall."

In contrast, he says, if house prices fall for two or three years, "the real competitive instincts of the people would be liberated. The Central Bank figures show that 83c out of every euro borrowed for investment was for property. It's elbowing out everything else."

Describing Fianna Fail as the political wing of the construction sector, he claims the political system is "too tied to the oligarchy that is the land-owning, wealthy classes". McWilliams also accuses the government of having a vested interest in rising property prices because it gets 28% of the price of every new house . . . which he estimates was worth around 11bn last year to the exchequer . . . which can be used to fund tax cuts. "The budgetary strategy is based on impoverishing Irish workers. It's Noddyland economics."

McWilliams says Ireland is now the most indebted nation on earth and notes that, five years ago, the balance of payments (exports minus imports) was in surplus, but is now in deficit to the tune of 10.5bn. "We're injecting ourselves with the financial equivalent of botox. We're borrowing others' money to buy and sell houses to each other. The botox wears off. Last year, we spent 60 times more on overseas property than on hightech startups in Ireland. This is in a world where property doesn't create any innovation. The Japanese create brands, it's value added. Could you imagine Steve Jobs [Apple chief executive] putting all his money into buildings?"

McWilliams dismisses suggestions that he and others risk talking down the economy. "I'm sick of people with English degrees telling me, 'You have to talk up the economy.'" However, he stresses that despite his concerns, there is no question of an "apocalyptical recession" and believes Ireland is in a good position to take advantage of globalisation. And despite being associated with predictions of the end of the Celtic Tiger, he believes that once costs come down, another boom awaits. "I'm an optimistic bear.

The bull's idea is predicated on impoverishing young people. The debate is not about middle-aged men."

Alan Ahearne NUI Galway Ahearne describes himself as a short-term bear but a long-term bull on the Irish economy. "For 2008, the problem is seeing where the growth will come from. House building will essentially fall off a cliff next year . . . it's in the housing starts data.

So you need to have something to compensate for that, in the form of consumer spending, government spending or exports. 2007 has been a bumper year for consumer spending with the SSIA money and we're unlikely to have a repeat of that. Employment growth is slowing so we'd expect to have slower, not faster, consumer spending. Commercial construction has been very strong also, so we're running out of components.

"From what we hear from the minister for finance, there'll be a significant slowing of current government expenditure. So we're left with exports. They are estimated to grow by 5% this year, so we'd need an acceleration of that.

Given the euro has broken through the $1.40 level [making exports to the US more expensive] and the global economic outlook is not rosy, all the indicators are that exports will be slower, perhaps significantly so."

Asked if he was predicting a recession next year, Ahearne said that wasn't his central forecast but any forecast had a margin of error about it and such a scenario was "plausible".

"Beyond five years, our prospects are good but in the short term, there will be an adjustment, " he said, predicting a drop in both price and activity in the housing market over the next five years, along with a temporary rise in unemployment.

"If you take a cold look, then the [short term] prospects are not good. . . In the housing market, it takes four or five years for the adjustment post the boom to work through." Ahearne believes the drop in house prices during that period could be in the region of 20-30%.

Like McWilliams, he believes there's "no going back to the 1980s". He also dismisses suggestions the economy can be talked into a recession. "I don't know of an economy that has gone into recession for no other reason than it was talked into it. Interest rate hikes, oil prices, credit booms and outflows of capital, they are the real things that affect confidence and sentiment and cause recessions."

But while a "bad landing" for the economy is "very unlikely", Ahearne describes last week's figures about Ireland's education spending relative to its OECD peers as "depressing" news for an aspiring knowledge-based economy.