BBC World wanted an interview on the Iraqi oil law. I couldn't go to London so we ran it from RTE studios and eventually got the systems coordinated. Being treated like an 'expert' forces you to think objectively. We believe agreement among the Iraqi Shias (around 60% of the population) and with Iran will hold. The Shia-led government will force through the Hydrocarbon Law, if necessary against Sunni and Kurdish opposition.

Resistance is mainly conducted by units of Saddam's former national army, with Islamist groups playing a small but important role.

Many former army officers studied partisan warfare at Russian military colleges, so it's not surprising they echo second World War tactics and brutality. Sometimes, the mainstream elements squabble with Islamists, but mostly this is posturing; they take American assistance but do little real fighting against alQaeda. That awaits a US withdrawal.

There is a constitutional sentiment similar to that once behind Ireland's SDLP: the majority want an easy life.

They want to cut a deal but need protection from armed factions. Despite rumours of military coups and possibly a kinder, gentler Saddam, it'll be hard to force the democratic genie back into the bottle.

The Iraqi government want the foreign troops to depart . . .

but not precipitously. They want a departure date, a commitment there will be no permanent US presence and no attack on Iran.

The Kurds will push for maximum autonomy but shy at the fence of independence, which would provoke Turkish intervention. Oil companies negotiating with Kurdish warlords will suffer as central government reasserts itself, though it's conceivable they'll emerge with concessions if they re-apply to the Federal authorities. Middle Easterners delight in messy compromise.

Though the White House would like to bomb Iran, it's hard to see what this would achieve. It's too late to stop an Iranian deterrent. Persians are masterful equivocators, and will draw negotiations out; this will prevent international consensus until Bush leaves office.

The ambiguity will work towards the strengths of Irish companies.

7 SEPTEMBER, NEWSTALK

A call for comments on petrol prices on Newstalk's Right Hook. They're slagging citycentre petrol stations for overcharging but what do they expect? Retailing generally polarises: both discount channels and boutiques grow.

Irish property development is more profitable than earning a living. Petrol stations are not efficient users of expensive space: few are keen to live or work above a potential hazard, so they're effectively limited to one storey.

As the number of stations shrinks, the temptation is to charge more. After all, a customer's cost is more than just the fuel: you could save 10c per litre by driving to Athlone, but burn more fuel . . . not to mention your time.

Punters should shop around. Be aware of prices.

Check the website irishfuelprices. com. But don't blame retailers for maximising profits . . . that's how free markets are supposed to behave.

8 SEPTEMBER, MONASTEREVIN

Stan Cosgrove's 80th birthday bash celebrated a great equine vet, father and optimist. Moyglare Stud manager and philanthropist Cosgrove backed twentysomethings before it became fashionable. He was always open to fresh ideas and imagination and takes every opportunity to encourage youth and challenge caution.

In 1992, we tried to persuade Goff 's board to acquire property companies . . . whose shares then traded at about 50% of net asset value. It was the shrewd financial decision . . . Irish property was undervalued then and property stocks even more so . . . but we couldn't expand the board's vision of Goffs as a bloodstock auctioneer. Afterwards, Cosgrove told me not to worry about "conservative old men".

His candles may cost more than the cake, yet it's not the years in a life but the life in the years that count.

Cosgrove is a natural public speaker with a unique style.

You only appreciate seanchai genius if you try to repeat his stories. People of faith have a relaxed attitude to mortality: Giving the oration at his beloved wife's funeral, Cosgrove's tales reduced the packed audience to stitches.

Moving a congregation is hard enough; moving one through tasteful humour requires rare talent.

Cosgrove's investment approach is not dull: he backed my first funding in 1993 and every time I asked him since. He never complained about setbacks or downturns in bloodstock or speculative markets. Maybe as a result he did well: positive thinking justly rewarded.

Stan Cosgrove never whines when things go badly.

He called to thank us following the success of Petrel and African Diamonds. "Stan, " I responded, "we thank you for your support."

The first 80 years are the hardest.

SHARE PRICE ROLLER COASTER

The fortnight since the annual general meeting on 22 August involved heavy trading and share price volatility for Petrel: from the 90s to 150s and back to 106 before bouncing to 137 as I file. About 15% of the stock traded in a week. Good liquidity should make for fair market value.

But how can a share price be volatile in the absence of news? Is this just the market doing its thing? If so, what can or should managers do?

Hot stock prices motivate, funding is less dilutive, and people know about you.

Opportunities arise as a consequence.

Yet hot stocks invite ramping and defamation. Short sellers appear and may spread scurrilous rumours.

Since hot stocks are volatile, you get exuberant or unreasonably upset shareholders. It's impossible to keep everyone happy: bullish shorttermists want the price ever higher. But for every seller, there's a buyer. The buyer at the frothy level will complain if the price settles back or even stabilises.

You will never satisfy such punters. Don't try.

While some exuberance is good, it doesn't follow that more is better. Keep markets reasonably informed; management's duty is to state facts. The market's job is to react and assess.

You know how markets work but can't fine-tune them.

They're too interactive, with many variables and irrationality.

You can only tell in retrospect if a stock is over-priced or on its way moonwards. I met Bill Gates shortly before Microsoft went public in 1986.

He seemed an Icarus flying towards IBM's sun.

Punters should support stories that make intuitive sense but enter before the crowd. Buy cheap and take profits on the way up. Don't blame others for your mistakes. And hold a few shares in case it is another Microsoft.