WARREN Buffett once said that the stock market is a manic depressive.
A month or so ago, the sky was falling and all was doom and gloom.
This week, it was the exact opposite.
We're headed to the moon!
Buy! Buy! Buy! Dow 15,000 here we come!
Whatever. The tasteless exclamation marks are bad enough . . . no matter how excited one may be, there really is no excuse for a tool that has become synonymous with girly teenagers and over-eager English language learners . . . but it's even harder to stomach when you're at the receiving end of the bullish stampede.
The Fed's decision to slash interest rates by a half percentage point took me by surprise. I knew a cut was coming . . . everyone did . . .but I'd expected a more modest cut of 0.25%. Anticipation of a cut had seen the Dow run up by a thousand points over the previous few weeks so the 'good' news was well and truly baked into the cake. As I quoted Brett Steenbarger last week, we were "more open to disappointment than surprise and euphoria".
I got that one wrong for sure. I thought that Fed chief Ben Bernanke would want to show that he was a prudent banker who was unwilling to bow to the demands of a bunch of spoiled hedge fund millionaires who had made some dumb and reckless bets. Instead, he showed that the Fed had "become Wall Street's bitch", to use money manager Barry Ritholtz's hilarious description.
Markets went bananas on Tuesday once the news hit the wires.
The Dow enjoyed its biggest one-day rise in four years, jumping by over 300 points. I had an order in to short the S&P 500 at 1500 . . . there was technical resistance at that point . . .and got blown away in no time.
This was an unforgivable trade. I'd been looking to short at this juncture all week. Of course, I should have pulled my order as soon as the magnitude of the cut was announced. Unfortunately, the element of surprise threw me and I left the order sit there. Clearly, my pre-existing bearish bias affected my judgement. Anyway, it was a quick thousand "ushed down the toilet.
Even worse, there was a lot of easy money to be made. There were numerous low-risk entry points in the aftermath of the Fed announcement. I could have made a packet but I was too busy biting my nails and, after my stop was hit, sulking/cursing.
This wasn't my only loss this week. I shorted Yahoo at $24.50 and was quickly stopped out the next day. After being stopped out, the stock returned to $24.50, where I should really have gone long (old resistance becomes support). I didn't. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
My only consolation was that the Fed news helped lift a long position I had taken in chip maker Nvidia on the same day. Nvidia has been one of the strongest stocks of the last few months before pulling back over the last week. I bought on a break of Monday's high (around $33) and the stock really took off after news of the rate cut. Unfortunately, this wasn't as pro"table as it might have been.
Firstly, I took some pro"ts around $34.50 . . . way too soon. Secondly, I had the option of placing my stop loss under Monday's low (around $32) but opted to play it safe and placed it under $31 (50-day average) instead. The looser the stop order, the smaller the position. This was a great technical set-up but my management of the trade was bloody awful.
My only other postion is a short gold play. I mentioned last week that I thought sentiment was excessively bullish and that a counter-trend short might be in order. Accordingly, I had an order to short at $725, which was just shy of its 2006 high of $730 (stop loss above $735). As soon as the Fed cut was announced, the gold price shot upwards, triggering my order and going beyond it to boot.
The Fed news was bad for the dollar and talk of a dollar crisis invariably leads traders to gold as a supposed safe haven play. Anyway, price retreated after the initial scare and I'm currently break-even on the position.
I probably shouldn't have taken this trade. Like my S&P short, it was partially predicated on a 'sell the news' type reaction to a 0.25% interest rate cut. Still, I got away with it, at least for now, and will likely give this one a little time to prove itself.
Every trader on the planet seems to take it as a given that gold is headed to new highs. That kind of complacency can be a sign of a top.
Besides, its already run up $80 over the last month. These counter-trend trades are always risky, however. I'll have to watch it closely.
Going forward? There are no shortage of observers who see the Fed actions as reckless and inflationary. Heavyweight investors Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have both said this week that the rate cuts will cause a dollar collapse and push the US into a recession. That may happen but for now, the trend is up and a stab at all-time highs is likely not far away. Breet Steenbarger's detailed research leads him to conclude that "a market that lifts off with great strength tends to follow through in the same direction before undergoing a meaningful retracement".
I'm not going to chase the market higher but I'd buy any dip. 1500 is the obvious support level for the S&P. As for individual stocks, the usual rules apply . . . buy strong issues that dip and short weak pups that rise.
Weekly gain/loss: - /1,500 Overall balance: /50,600
|