A fresh gameplanwith a mixture of cool heads and calculated risks will give Eddie O'Sullivan's team a chance of progression
WITH all the talk this week of Ireland repeating Munster's feat against Gloucester, and beating Argentina this afternoon by eight points or more and scoring four tries in the process, one crucial factor has all but been forgotten.
Munster achieved their feat at a venue where, at that moment in time, they'd never lost in the Heineken Cup. Ireland, meanwhile, will be attempting something very similar at a stadium where they've never ever won a game of rugby. In 12 games over 24 years at the Parc des Princes, Ireland received all manner of rugby lessons from Les Bleus and if that's the first indicator of how things are likely to go this afternoon, then it's not a very positive one. That said, the south-west Paris venue is far from the most important factor in today's mix. There are numerous other elements that will decide who qualifies for the quarter-finals Like discipline. Whenever Ireland and Argentina meet, be it in Buenos Aires, Dublin, Adelaide or Lens, there's always a whiff of cordite in the air and this afternoon is likely to be no different. With Simon Best's illness over the past few days, neither side has really had the stomach to stir things up ahead of the game but don't for one second think that things will be so cordial on the pitch come kick-off.
The citings in Adelaide in 2003, and Lansdowne Road in 2004, have not been forgotten by the Pumas and the accusation back in the summer that Ireland were guilty of 70-odd indiscretions in the first test in Santa Fe shows that they're intent on some kind of revenge. Therefore, the first thing Ireland need to do this afternoon is to keep their cool, no matter how much physical and mental intimidation Argentina inflict upon them over the course of the 80 minutes.
We're not suggesting for a moment that Ireland take a backward step and allow the Pumas to bully them, but getting dragged into petty rows and niggles around the pitch will not help Ireland's cause one bit. Discipline around the breakdown cost this side dearly against France last weekend and it's crucial that the players out there today don't allow their tempers to cost Ireland points today.
Which brings us to the overall scenario that Ireland find themselves in. The permutations have been explained elsewhere but the fall-out from the team's disastrous performances thus far in this World Cup means that Eddie O'Sullivan's side need to approach this game in a completely different manner than they might have before the tournament began.
Which might not be a bad thing.
Think about it. If this fixture was a simple matter of winner takes all, Ireland would probably put their heads down and engage in trench warfare with their opponents. It's exactly what they did in 2003 in Adelaide and we don't doubt they would have done the same thing again today had circumstances been different.
Now, however, Ireland need to win by scoring tries and they're going to have to play a bit more heads-up rugby to do just that. And in many ways, Ireland's players are far more suited to the latter tactic than the former.
Argentina turn from a second-rate rugby nation into a top rate one the moment the ball hits the deck and it's vital that Ireland make some sort of attempt to keep their ball alive. While their offloading game has been pitiful thus far in the tournament, their ball protection has been just as bad and the Pumas will destroy any sort of rhythm Ireland do build up if they hit the deck too often.
If trying to keep the ball alive should be a given, then it's vital that Ireland vary the rest of what they do with the ball this afternoon. Talk from the players this week has been about earning field position first and attacking Argentina out wide after, but it would be nice to see that tactic varied over the course of the game. One constant complaint about Eddie O'Sullivan's reign is that Ireland are too predictable, be that playing conservatively or expansively, and a good mix of kicking for position, running from deep and cranking the maul into gear will keep Argentina guessing today.
Variety, after all, is the spice of life.
We'll also need to see a marked improvement from the Irish line-out if the impossible is to happen. Against France, you'd have thought they were holding something back were it not for the fact it was Ireland's biggest game in four years. This operation is capable of much more than it has showed over the past three weeks and we're expecting them to provide Eoin Reddan and Ronan O'Gara with a steady supply of quality ball this afternoon.
And this is where this side need to be bold. This week, Paul O'Connell stated that this game wasn't a matter of "death or glory" for Ireland but we completely disagree with him. Because of the way things have worked out, the parameters have shifted and anything less than winning with four tries and by eight points or more is a defeat for Ireland. Forget about, one, just winning the game, or two, coming close to achieving the other two goals needed for qualification. Neither is good enough and that's why Ireland need to take risks at the Parc des Princes. We're not talking about throwing the ball around willy-nilly, but approaching specific situations in the game with the boldest possible tactic.
Take the victory against England at Twickenham in 2006. From a scrum in their own 22, Ronan O'Gara chipped the ball over the English defence and set in motion a move that finished with Shane Horgan crossing for a match-winning try in the corner. Why are plays like that only attempted when the game is up, or almost up? It was the same against France in Paris in 2006, and even the last 10 minutes of last week's game at the Stade de France.
These sort of risks should be taken on a number of occasions throughout games, no matter what the score is, and it will be an indictment of the coach this afternoon if Ireland only start flinging the ball around to earn, say, tries three and four in the last 10 minutes.
Can they do it? Well, yes.
On paper, Ireland are a better team than Argentina but over the past few years, and specifically the last few weeks, the Pumas have been better coached. Will they do it? No, for the very reason we outlined above.
At the very least, let's hope neither they nor the rest of us dies wondering.
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